Both Rain Systems Will Dissipate On Sunday, DIAMMU To Reach Gujarat

UPDATE, SUNDAY, AUGUST 21: Latest forecasts say the low pressure system will move western India by Wednesday.

AUGUST 20, 2016, SATURDAY 

The two low pressure areas that were expected to maintain monsoon rains in India will collapse on Sunday. The one that is presently over northwest Madhya Pradesh will move to southeast Rajasthan tomorrow and fizzle out. Meanwhile the remains of tropical storm DIAMMU are presently moving past Myanmar. By tomorrow it will reach Bangladesh and die down quickly.

Heavy rains in northeastern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Rajasthan till Monday.

Heavy rains in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Myanmar, Bangladesh till Monday morning.

Very heavy rains in Bangladesh on Sunday.

Heavy rains in parts of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh on Monday.

 UPDATE: AUGUST 21, 2016, SUNDAY 

Things have changed. The remnant of tropical storm DIAMMU, a low pressure system, which is moving over Bangladesh now may reach southern Rajasthan, Kutch, northern  Gujarat on August 24-25. It will bring rains even to Sindh possibly on Friday.

Earlier forecast was the circulation would dissipate over Bihar-eastern Uttar Pradesh today.

The circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh fizzling out as predicted. DIAMMU remains moving into West Bengal. By Thursday it will reach southern Rajasthan, north Gujarat, Kutch.

August 17, 2016: Heavy Rain In Jharkhand As Low Moves In

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area is moving into West Bengal. It will move through Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh, northern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh, south eastern Rajasthan and before it dissipates it will bring showers to Gujarat on Sunday.

Meanwhile the South China Sea low is brewing into a tropical cyclone. It is going to move through Hainan in China, then northern Vietnam. Will be probably be named DIAMMU. It's remnants will reach Indian northeast, Bangladesh on August 20-21.

Heavy rain in parts of northern Madhya Pradesh-western Uttar Pradesh (Agra-Gwalior belt) in next 12 hours, till tonight.

Heavy rains in parts of northeastern Rajasthan (Kota, Sawai Madhopur) till Thursday evening.

Heavy rains in Gangetic West Bengal till today midnight.

Heavy rains in Jharkhand till Thursday afternoon.

Heavy rains in northern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh on Thursday night.

Heavy rains in western Madhya Pradesh and adjoining eastern Rajasthan on Friday.

Related: NOAA RAIN FORECAST AUGUST 17-18

VIDEO: It rained very heavily in Rewa, northeast Madhya Pradesh on August 16, 2016 as we had predicted earlier. (video created by Santosh Upadhyay)

The Canadian CMC forecast model predicts the growing tropical cyclone (DIAMMU) in South China Sea will reach  Gujarat, albeit as a weakened low pressure area.

Depression 99B To Bring Heavy Rains To MP, Maharashtra, Gujarat By September 20, 2015

The depression 99B that has formed in the Bay of Bengal and presently flooding Odisha has stamina. If forecasts are to be believed this system is not only to bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, southern Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, northern Maharashtra, South and central Gujarat, and Saurashtra in the next 5 days but will in fact intensify from a 997 Mb storm to a 994 Mb storm when it hovers over Saurashtra on September 21, 2015.

It has just crossed the Odisha coast and bringing heavy precipitation to the region. In the next  72 hours it is going to reach Gujarat. On September 20, 2015 it will move onto Saurashtra and then hover over the region for a day or two and then abruptly move towards western Rajasthan and onto Haryana, Delhi and even Kashmir. Heavy rains are expected in these states till September 26.

The above was the American NCEP forecast. The European forecast differs on the track for the low pressure 99B. It predicts it will move into Sindh after Saurashtra and move north right through Pakistan. if the ECMWF model proves to be accurate then Pakistan is in for very heavy rains from September 22 onwards. And the system is expected to traverse throughout the country.

But that possibility seems to be receding. The latest data from the model says 99B will suddenly weaken on September 22, 2015 as it leaves Saurashtra and enters the Arabian Sea and then drift back through northwest Gujarat into Rajasthan and further into northern India before dissipating.

Wherever it goes 99B has a lot of energy and it will flood many areas before it peters out. And that is not expected for another 10 days.

Keep  in touch for latest forecasts for 99B. It has the computer models confused and they have been giving out different track forecasts with successive bulletins.

Big rain-maker system 99B needs to be closely monitored.

See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

Track The Storm

Depression/low 99B over Odisha. Latest satellite image taken at 0400 GMT, September 16, 2015

MEKKHALA TYPHOON Will Bring Heavy Rains To North-East Philippines Till Sunday

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0642 HOURS GMT SHOWS MEKKHALA MOVING INTO PHILIPPINES

January 18, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT: Latest Update

Typhoon Mekkhala will bring heavy rainfall to Samar, Bicol, and Calabarzon, Philippines in the next 36 hours till evening of January 18, 2015.

It lies presently about 200 kilometers from Borongan on Samar Island. Wind speeds are about 100 kph gusts up to 120 kph. But is already weakening. Within the next two hours it will move inland into north Samar.  By tomorrow morning it will move into Calabarzon. Mekkhala will start dissipating by the time it reaches Luzon. By tomorrow evening, that is Sunday, it will be history. It will not affect Manila significantly except for moderate rains on Sunday.

It will bring heaviest rains in North Samar, Bikol and Calabarzon. Mekkhala is a weak storm which will just bring some rains in certain parts of the country (mentioned above) and then disintegrate. But expect winds of 50-60 kph in Bikol, Calabarzon and parts of Mimiropa till today late night.

THIS 0530 HOURS GMT, JANUARY  17, 2015, IMAGE SHOWS MEKKHALA IS ALREADY BREAKING UP

Cyclone Hudhud Will Bring Heavy Rains To Andhra And Orissa : Oct. 10-13, 2014

Cyclone Hudhud will not only bring powerful winds, but very heavy rainfall. Not only to Andhra (Visakhapatnam is Ground Zero) but also Orissa, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh (And Even Uttar Pradesh).

The rains will start from October 10, 2014. Friday. And will continue for the next three days. Seemandhra of course will see most of the flooding. But Orissa will also receive heavy rains from Saturday to Monday.

There will be floods in these two states.

Rainfall Forecast Map Owing to Cyclone Hudhud

The map shows the amount of rainfall that Cyclone Hudhud will bring from Today till Sunday, October 12, 2014

Just One Point: Please Don't Question Our Integrity

Someone just wrote to us...."Kindly be accurate in giving out the information as this is a serious matter which needs to be addressed and prepared for. Just don't give the Prediction and projections unless it is positively CONFIRMED."

 We replied...."We know this is a serious matter. If one is looking for 100% confirmed forecasts, this is not possible in today's world even with the biggest supercomputers, as any meteorologist will tell you. If one is looking for greater accuracy, then wait for the weather bulletins by the country's Met office. What we do is give indications of a possibility of a tropical storm WELL IN ADVANCE. Sometimes we are proved wrong; Sometimes we are proved right. We are bloggers, not the country's official Met department. And our forecasts are based on real trusted forecast models, not our whims and fancies"
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Weather Gods Change Mind Again: Now Deluge In West Bengal, Bangladesh On May 29, 2014

It is rightly said that it is difficult to fathom the weather gods. Especially when we are looking at a 15 days forecast. We have said earlier that heavy rains were likely in Orissa-Andhra and then Assam around the 26th of May, 2014.

Well the rains have changed dates and place again. Now forecasts say there is going to be deluge in West Bengal on May 28-29, 2014. Parts of Bangladesh too will be affected.

This is a nasty rain forecast map. It shows the forthcoming deluge in West Bengal, Bangladesh and Assam on May 28, 2014

Two Low Pressure Areas: Rains In Oman And West Bengal Expected

XWF WEATHER PREDICTION MAP: SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY SHOWS THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS, ONE EACH IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA (WILL FORM ON MAY 30)

Today we shall talk about two low pressure areas (LPA). One in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of

Bengal. One has already formed. The other will take shape on May 30, 2013.

As we had forecasted earlier,  a low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal. We had also said that this system would make landfall two days later and bring heavy rains in Bangladesh and West Bengal. Well, there has been a slight change of plan. The LPA will not go straight into Bangladesh. But it will hover around for some time near the Orissa coast then move into land on May 29, 2013 at the Orissa-West Bengal border. It will then curve into West Bengal bringing heavy rains in the state for the next 3-4 days. North Bengal will get rains on June 1, 2013. Heavy rains, if I may so.
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Then the system will drench north Bangladesh on June 2, 2013. I am talking of Rangpur, Dinajpur, Panchgarh and Thakurgaon.

The Arabian Sea LPA will form on May 30, 2013. It will move along the Oman coast in a northerly direction, giving rains to the coastal areas. Muscat may get some rains on June 4-5, 2013. It may rain in Abu Dabhi, Dubai and Doha around May 6, 2013. Muscat will get some good showers on June 5-6, 2013.

Cyclone Nilam To Hit Chennai Wednesday (October 31, 2012) Evening. VERY HEAVY RAINS IN TN AND AP

Expected path of Cyclone NILAM

Expected Nilam is still a deep depression, but it will start intensifying and turn into a cyclone by today (Tuesday, 30 Nov. 2012) evening. It will then hit the coast just below Chennai by tomorrow (Wednesday, October 31, 2012) evening.

Nilam will be a moderate storm with wind speeds exceeding 62 KMPH at the least. Though gale winds may touch the 100 KMPH mark. Nothing to sneeze at that.

Lots of rain. It must be raining in Chennai and the rest of Tamil Nadu now. The rains are going to increase all the time. Expect a deluge.

There will be heavy rains in Andhra Pradesh too over the days

Increasing rainfall

Rainfall prediction map. Cyclone NILAM. October 30 to November 3, 2012

WHAT THE INDIAN MET DEPT. SAYS ABOUT CYCLONE NILAM OCTOBER 30, 2012 0530 HOURS


The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal   remained   practically stationary  and
lay centred at  0530 hours IST of today, the 30th October, 2012  over southwest Bay of Bengal
near lat. 9.0°N and long. 82.0°E, about 500 Km south­southeast of Chennai. The system would
intensify further into a  cyclonic storm and move northwestwards for some more time and then
cross north Tamilnadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast  between Nagapattinam and
Nellore by 31st October, 2012 afternoon/evening.

Latest image of Cyclone Nilam

Heavy Rains Coming To South Eastern United States From June 25, 2011

Though the Pacific has thrown up Adrian and forecasts say another storm ( a weak one) is brewing up there, the Atlantic Ocean sits benign till now. But there is much rain in store for southern and south-eastern US from June 25, 2011. The states affected will be Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The rains will start from Louisiana and then move along the states mentioned over the days to come.


The rain system may even move north along the Atlantic coast to New York and Washington DC too. But later that.

THE RAIN PREDICTION MAPS

 June 26, Sunday.The rains move into Louisiana

 June 30, 2011.The entire south-eastern stretch is wet

July 1, 2011. Thes rain hit South and North Carolina

Heavy Rains Forecast For Southern And Central Japan June 15-17, 2011

Japan is going to see a deluge from today, Wednesday (June 15, 2011) for the next two days. Heavy rain-bearing clouds move in from China and the islands of Kyushu,  Shikoku and Honshu islands will bear the brunt. Southern and central Japan. Tokyo will be very wet on Friday (June 17, 2011).

THE RAIN FORECAST MAPS

Wednesday mid-night (UTC Time)

 Thursday (June 16, 2011) noon (UTC)

Thursday evening, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

LATEST ASIA WEATHER FORECAST: Rains Coming To Pakistan. Iran To Get Heavy Falls

The expected tropical storm Keila is going to bring rains to Iran. Lots of it. Even hot Pakistan, especially Karachi will get rain courtesy Keila.

Very wet Arabian Sea in the next few days

FORECAST FOR ASIA: HIGHLIGHTS 

• The Arabian Sea especially off the coast of Mumbai and Goa is going to remain very wet and windy. Lots of rains. Strong waves. Those passing the area stay careful.

• South Pakistan, especially Karachi will get rain, courtesy Keila on Saturday and Sunday. June 11, 12, 2011

• Iran is in a for a lot of rain when Keila makes landfall Sunday. June 12, 2001.

Very wet Iran in a weeks time. June 13, 2011

• Eastern China. Shanghai, Wuhan and Nanchang are in for a lot of rain on Monday. June 6, 2011 (GMT). Lots of rains on Friday (June 10) again.

• Japanese island of Kyushu to get heavy rainfall on Tuesday, June 7, 2011. rain in Japan on Saturday.

• Bangladesh in a for a wet spell on Sunday, June 12, 2011