Arabian Sea Low Off Saurashtra Coast By June 16

JUNE 10, 2017, SATURDAY 

Monsoon has already reached Goa and is preparing to hit hard at its next targets: Konkan and North Bengal.

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area will cross the Bangladesh coast by morning of June 12, Monday. Very heavy expected in the country from tomorrow itself. But the system may fizzle out in northern Bangladesh or in Assam, so it will bring heavy flooding rains to entire Indian north eastern states and will push monsoon into sub Himalayan West Bengal only. After that monsoon will lose steam. Bihar will have to wait.

The real action is going to happen in the Konkan region of Maharashtra. After Goa, monsoon is going hammer and tongs at Konkan. Very heavy rains expected in this region from Monday. Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai too.

But the real game changer may turn out to be an Arabian Sea low pressure system that may rise near the Dwarka coast of Saurashtra, in Gujarat state on June 16. It will start off as an cyclonic circulation off the Konkan coast by Monday then move to the seas off Saurashtra by 16, intensifying into a low.

Where it will go is not known now. It may drench Gujarat. It may move into Pakistan and drench it. It may move towards Oman. Or it may fizzle out mid sea.

This system is going to be a game changer.

American Agency Predicts Mora Will Be A Monster Cyclone

MAY 27, 2017, SATURDAY 

This is cause for worry for the people of Bangladesh. The low pressure system presently hovering in the Bay of Bengal west of northern Andaman Islands may well turn into a howling monster tropical cyclone Mora with sustained winds of about 200 km/h.

And it is set to hit Bangladesh in 3 days time, on Tuesday morning near Chittagong.

The American GFS (Global Forecast System) in its latest data output says cyclone Mora is going to rapidly intensify in the coming 48 hours, reaching a state with a central minimum pressure of 944 hPa. More worrisome is it is not going to weaken much at landfall.

A 200 km/h cyclone hitting a country suddenly with little prior warning is a recipe for disaster. I am sure the Bangladesh authorities must be well aware of this potential threat and taking preventive measures on a war footing.

Our own assessment is tropical cyclone Mora will not be such a devastating storm. We expect winds of 100 km/h on landfall. But we are monitoring the situation constantly and will keep you updated.

In the meantime listen carefully to what your local meteorological agency says, take all precautions and stay safe.

Folks in Myanmar need to be careful too as the cyclone will pass quite close along the coast. Heavy rainfall with strong winds will occur in coastal Myanmar from Sunday itself. Pathein and Sittwe will be badly affected.

Landfall will occur at Cox's Bazaar on Tuesday morning with winds of 90 km/h, gusts upto 120 km/h

Cyclone Mora May Hit Bangladesh By June 1, 2017

MAY 25, 2017, THURSDAY UPDATE

The low pressure system will begin to intensify into MORA by Saturday. It will be a quick moving storm. Will make landfall into Chittagong on Tuesday morning, May 30. Authorities have just 5 days to prepare for this challenge by nature.

Expected impact area of Bay of Bengal storm on Tuesday morning 

MAY 24, 2017, WEDNESDAY 

The upper air cyclonic circulation which has formed in the Bay of Bengal now lies west of Andaman Nicobar islands. In the next 3-4 days it will move in a north northeasterly direction intensifying into a well marked low pressure system.

It is on May 28 it will begin to intensify into a depression and by Monday into a tropical cyclone cyclone (MORA). It will be a swift moving storm. It will make landfall into the Chittagong region of Bangladesh by May 31, that is next Wednesday.

Mora will be a cyclone with a central minimum pressure of about 985 hPa. That is with sustained 10 minute winds of about 100 kmph.

Please keep reading updates on this site to know about the latest storm possibility.

At this stage Mora is just a strong possibility. Keep checking with your local weather office.

The upper air cyclonic circulation which is destined to become tropical cyclone MORA.

Tropical Storm KYANT Brewing In Bay of Bengal, Heavy Rains In Coastal Myanmar, Bangladesh Likely

OCTOBER 22, 2016, SATURDAY 

The Bay of Bengal has belatedly thrown out a tropical storm, which will be named KYANT in a couple of days. It is a depression now some 750 kilometres from Yangon, Myanmar at present. In the coming few days the system 99B will move close to the coast of Myanmar.

On October 24, 2016, it will intensify into a tropical storm. Our estimate is at its peak it will reach a central minimum pressure of 981 millibars. Compared to the recent West Pacific monster Haima which had reached 922 millibars, this one will be a mere toddler.

But it is going to bring lots of rainfall to coastal Myanmar and then on October 28 to parts of Bangladesh and some Indian NE states.

KYANT will swing back into the sea away from the Myanmar coast on October 25 and perhaps hit the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on October 28, 2016.

But it's track may change in the coming days. Keep in touch.

It is also possible that this system may not strengthen enough to become a tropical cyclone and may remain on record according to the Indian Meteorological Department a mere deep depression and not be named "KYANT". At most it may turn out to be a weak cyclone, according to present forecasts.

Both Rain Systems Will Dissipate On Sunday, DIAMMU To Reach Gujarat

UPDATE, SUNDAY, AUGUST 21: Latest forecasts say the low pressure system will move western India by Wednesday.

AUGUST 20, 2016, SATURDAY 

The two low pressure areas that were expected to maintain monsoon rains in India will collapse on Sunday. The one that is presently over northwest Madhya Pradesh will move to southeast Rajasthan tomorrow and fizzle out. Meanwhile the remains of tropical storm DIAMMU are presently moving past Myanmar. By tomorrow it will reach Bangladesh and die down quickly.

Heavy rains in northeastern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Rajasthan till Monday.

Heavy rains in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Myanmar, Bangladesh till Monday morning.

Very heavy rains in Bangladesh on Sunday.

Heavy rains in parts of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh on Monday.

 UPDATE: AUGUST 21, 2016, SUNDAY 

Things have changed. The remnant of tropical storm DIAMMU, a low pressure system, which is moving over Bangladesh now may reach southern Rajasthan, Kutch, northern  Gujarat on August 24-25. It will bring rains even to Sindh possibly on Friday.

Earlier forecast was the circulation would dissipate over Bihar-eastern Uttar Pradesh today.

The circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh fizzling out as predicted. DIAMMU remains moving into West Bengal. By Thursday it will reach southern Rajasthan, north Gujarat, Kutch.

Monsoon Forecast: Heavy Rains Expected In Bengal, Bihar Till June 27, 2015

The low pressure area which is presently over Bangladesh will move through West Bengal and Bihar by June 27, 2015 bringing heavy rains to these states.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Bangladesh today. The rains will shift to north Bengal and then onto Bihar by tomorrow.

Very heavy rains are expected in sub Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar in the next 48 hours.

One fears of flooding in Bihar by Sunday.

The rains will ease by Monday as the low will dissipate by then.. There may be rainfall in eastern Uttar Pradesh too in the next 48 hours.

The latest (0430 hours GMT, June 26, 2015) rainfall satellite image shows rains in North Bengal presently.

December 31, 2014: XWF-WEATHER Forecast Summary

Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal is in its death throes. Within the next 36 hours it will dissipate. But weather will be overcast and windy in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh till then. Some showers expected in these areas.

Tropical Storm Jangmi has weakened into a depression as it heads to Palawan. For the next few days it will move towards southern Thailand (And northern Malaysia) and bring rains there. Just that. Rains.

Australia is staring at a big cyclone in early January, 2015. North and Western coasts of the country. Cyclone Lam is imminent.

In south west Indian Ocean two tropical cyclones seem likely. First will affect southern Madagascar. The second will hit Mauritius and La Reunion around January 12, 2015.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 'HUDHUD' TO HIT ORISSA (INDIA) ON OCTOBER 11, 2014

We had predicted a few days ago that the Bay of Bengal was going to throw up a cyclone in the next few days.

It has happened.

Cyclone 'Hudhud' has already taken birth. As a low pressure area.

Within the next six days it will grow up into cyclone HUDHUD.

Latest forecasts say it will hit the eastern coast of India at Orissa. But we can cannot say for certain where it is going to make landfall. Andhra or West Bengal in India. Or Bangladesh?

It will make landfall on October 11, 2014.

It is to be seen how strong the storm turns out to be.

Forecast Map: Cyclone Hudhud as seen on October 7, 2014. It is moving towards India

Expected Path of Cyclone Hudhud

Will the tropical storm in Bay Of Bengal Turn Into Cyclone NANAUK?

A low pressure area hovers in the seas off the coast of Burma. It is 370 nautical miles south of Chittagong presently.

The question is; will the low pressure area remain just that when it makes landfall? Or will it grow stronger into a depression; or may be a cyclone. May be NANAUK might form in the Bay of Bengal. We are keeping a close eye.

The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), which is considered a god by storm trackers and predictors, says there is a 50-50 chance of a tropical storm developing.

The low pressure area is likely to intensify rapidly tomorrow into a tropical storm (May 24, 2014). Then it will move towards Bangladesh and then intensify rapidly again on Monday (May 26, 2014). 

Chances are, it is Nanauk in the making.... But will the storm gain enough strength to qualify in the eyes of IMD (Indian Met. Dept.) to be honored with a name; NANAUK?

UPDATE: MAY 24, 2014, O430 GMT

Present forecasts say the system will intensify in the next day or two and make landfall. Opinions vary. Orissa-West Bengal coast. Or Bangladesh. The tropical storm is unlikely to gain enough strength to be given a name, Nanauk. Certain forecasts say that it will not be a mere low pressure, but a deep depression. This system will be closely watched by us.

Expected Low Pressure Area in Bay of Bengal Will Drench Bengal Or Bangladesh?

A low pressure area is swirling in the Bay of Bengal off the Burmese coast. Where will it go?

Forecasts differ slightly. One says it is bam-bam-woosh for Bangladesh. Very heavy rains from Monday (May26, 2014). Others say the low pressure area will first affect coastal Orissa and West Bengal.And then it will move into Bangladesh two days later, that is on Wednesday (May 28, 2014).

But expect heavy rains all the same. Question is, will it be West Bengal first. Or Bangladesh and then Assam, with West Bengal escaping with comparatively less precipitation.

 Alternative 1: The system hits Bangladesh on May 26, 2014  and then moves over into Indian NE

Alternative 2: Drenches Orisaa, West Bengal on May 26, 2014. And then moves into Bangladesh on May 28 (Wednesday).

(Will it turn into Cyclone NANAUK?)

Bangladesh, Indian NE in for a deluge on May 26-27, 2014

May 24, 2014. The massive rain-bearing low pressure as it heads into Bangladesh. Maximum rainfall will be on May 26-27, 2014.

Bangladesh is in for a real pounding by the rains gods. A low pressure area will form within a day or two off the coast of Myanmar. This system will then move north straight into Bangladesh. Thou the rains will start from Sunday (May 25, 2014), the heaviest lashing will occur on Tuesday (May 27, 2014.

The Indian NE states too will receive heavy rains as the system will move there from Bangladesh.

Chances of flooding, folks. As the precipitation will be a deluge, no less.

Two Low Pressure Areas: Rains In Oman And West Bengal Expected

XWF WEATHER PREDICTION MAP: SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY SHOWS THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS, ONE EACH IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA (WILL FORM ON MAY 30)

Today we shall talk about two low pressure areas (LPA). One in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of

Bengal. One has already formed. The other will take shape on May 30, 2013.

As we had forecasted earlier,  a low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal. We had also said that this system would make landfall two days later and bring heavy rains in Bangladesh and West Bengal. Well, there has been a slight change of plan. The LPA will not go straight into Bangladesh. But it will hover around for some time near the Orissa coast then move into land on May 29, 2013 at the Orissa-West Bengal border. It will then curve into West Bengal bringing heavy rains in the state for the next 3-4 days. North Bengal will get rains on June 1, 2013. Heavy rains, if I may so.
.
Then the system will drench north Bangladesh on June 2, 2013. I am talking of Rangpur, Dinajpur, Panchgarh and Thakurgaon.

The Arabian Sea LPA will form on May 30, 2013. It will move along the Oman coast in a northerly direction, giving rains to the coastal areas. Muscat may get some rains on June 4-5, 2013. It may rain in Abu Dabhi, Dubai and Doha around May 6, 2013. Muscat will get some good showers on June 5-6, 2013.

Low Pressure Area To Bring Heavy Rains In Bangladesh And West Bengal Next Week

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY (MAY 25, 2013) SHOWS THE AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS NEAR THE MYANMAR COAST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THESE WILL GIVE BIRTH TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON MAY 27.

Bangladesh and West Bengal are in for a thorough drenching

next week. This will be as a result of a low pressure area that is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal on May 27, 2013.

Now this rain system will form a few hundred kilometers south of the Bangladesh coast.Then it will start moving northwards gradually in the next two days and make landfall on May 29, 2013.

Very heavy rains are forecast in SW Bangladesh on May 29. It will also rain heavily in Gangetic West Bengal on May 30.

After that the system will move into Assam on June 1, 2013.

The verdict? Very heavy rains in Bangladesh from May 29 to May 31.

MAHASEN CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH MAY 16, 2013

SATELLITE IMAGE OF MAHASEN. TODAY MAY 16, 2013. 1.00 PM (IST)

Mahasen cyclone is before time. It has already touched the Bangladesh coast at Patuakhali district and will hit Chittagong soon.

Patuakhali recorded winds of about 100 kph.

Very strong winds are expected in Bangladesh for another 12 hours.

It is already raining heavily now in Bangladesh. 

Assam and other NE states is receiving heavy rains now. They will continue for another 24 hours.

MAHASEN NEARS CHITTAGONG! HEAVY RAINS LASH BANGLADESH!

INFRA-RED IMAGE OF MAHASEN TODAY (12.00 NOON, IST) MAY 16, 2013

"MAHASEN" NEARS CHITTAGONG! WILL HIT TODAY EVENING. IT IS RAINING VERY HEAVILY IN KOLKATA AND WEST BENGAL.

CYCLONE 'MAHASEN' LATEST FORECAST UPDATE: MAY 16, WEDNESDAY, 12.45 PM (BDT), 12.15 PM (IST)

Mahasen is currently about 200 kms SE of Chittagong.

Under its influence, large parts of Bangladesh are reeling under heavy rains. Heavy rains have started in Dhaka. The current winds will increase as Mahasen cross the coast. Strong winds are likely for at least another 12 hours.

When its hits the Bangladesh coast late afternoon May 16, 2013 wind speeds of about 85 kph will lash CHITTAGONG and neigboring areas.

When MAHASEN slams into the Bangladesh coast today it will be accompanied with very heavy rains, strong winds (>85 kph) and waves of 12 feet.

Areas withing a 200 km radius of Chittagong will feel the strongest winds. Cox's Bazar will get a severe lashing.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Bangladesh today and tomorrow. Heavy rains are already lashing the country and parts of West Bengal.

Assam and other NE states will receive heavy rains on May 16-18. Mizoram and Manipar will get strong winds and heavy rains starting today night.

Eastern and southern Bangladesh, and northern Myanmar (including Yangon) will feel the effects of the storm.

Latest Satellite Image Mahasen> Today May 16, 2013, 6.00 AM (BDT)

SATELLITE IMAGE OF MAHASEN TAKEN TODAY, MAY 16, 2013, 6.00 AM (BDT)

CYCLONE MAHASEN COMING EARLIER! TO HIT BANGLADESH COAST TOMORROW (MAY 16, 2013) AFTERNOON!

Mahasen seems to have revved up. It is likely to hit Bangladesh coast, near Chittagong not May 16 night but tomorrow afternoon (almost evening). Latest satellite images show that the edges of the storm are almost touching the Bangladesh coast.

The wind speeds on the Bangladesh coast tomorrow afternoon will be  about 90+ kph. Very heavy rains which will start tonight, will lash the country tomorrow. It will throw up waves of almost 12 feet.

Mahasen will not only deluge Bangladesh but will bring heavy rainfall to Indian NE states from May 16, 2013, onwards.

MAHASEN LATEST UPDATE: Will Hit Chittagong Thursday Night: 90+ Kph Winds

Projected path of Mahasen. May 15, 2013

Latest forecast (MAY 15, 2013, 11.00 AM BDT) say that MAHASEN will be slightly less powerful than feared earlier. But it will still pack a big punch. It will touch top wind speeds of 110 kph. It is likely to slam into Chittagong on the night of May 16, 2013. That is Thursday night. Winds of more than 90 kph will hit the city. Waves of 12 feet will be thrown up. And very very heavy rainfall in entire Bangladesh on May 17, 2013.

People of Bangladesh, especially of Chittagong are advised to make adequate preparations.

We will keep you informed of the latest.

INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF MAHASEN TAKEN TODAY AFTERNOON

LATEST CYCLONE "MAHASEN" UPDATE, MAY 14, 2013: Now Moving Towards Bangla Coast, Will Hit On May 17

RAIN PREDICTION MAP: VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN BANGLADESH ON MAY 17, 2013.

In the last few hours Mahasen was changing course. Now it is slowly curving a path to Bangladesh. And it is expected to grow in intensity. In the next two days it will touch wind speed of about 130 kph.

It is expected to touch the Bangladesh coast on May 17, 2013. Very strong gale will lash the coastal areas with speeds up to 120 kph. It will be accompanied with heavy rains. Intermittent rains have already started in the country which will increase as the storm comes closer.

We are basing our predictions mainly on what the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says. Please note that the IMD differs in its forecast. IMD says wind speeds will be much lesser. But now even IMD says that the wind speed will be 90+ kph.

We will keep you updated.

Latest JTWC FORECAST (May 12, 2.30 PM IST) For MAHASEN Says It Will Be A Much Bigger Storm

MAHASEN WILL HIT BANGLADESH COAST NEAR CHITTAGONG ON MAY 16, 2013. VERY HEAVY WINDS WILL LASH THE BANGLADESH COAST.

We had said earlier that there is a difference in how the IMD and the JTWC predict the future of Mahasen cyclone. The latest JTWC bulletin (issued today at 2.30 PM, IST) says Mahsen will be bigger storm than what IMD (and most media) says. IMD says the maximum wind speeds Mahasen will throw up will be 55-65 kmph. JTWC says the maximum speeds will be an astounding 150 kmph.

Below is a gist of what the latest JTWC forecast says....

TC 01B (MAHASEN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS..... IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD..... THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE.

JTWC PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS AND POSITION OF MAHASEN: (1 Knot= 1.852 Kmph)

PRESENT: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KNOTS, GUSTS 055 KNOTS

 MAY 12 1800 HRS UTC --- 10.8N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KNOTS, GUSTS 070 KNOTS

MAY 13, 0600 UTC --- 11.8N 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KNOTS, GUSTS 075 KNOTS

MAY 13, 1800 UTC --- 13.0N 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KNOTS, GUSTS 080 KNOTS

MAY 14, 0600 UTC --- 14.3N 86.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KNOTS, GUSTS 085 KNOTS

MAY 15, 0600UTC --- 17.0N 88.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KNOTS, GUSTS 100 KNOTS

 MAY 16, 0600UTC --- 20.4N 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KNOTS, GUSTS 085 KNOTS

MAY 17, 0600 UTC --- 23.7N 94.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KNOTS, GUSTS 050 KNOTS

Latest May 12, 2013, 3.30 PM) Forecasted Path of MAHASEN