Cyclone FANTALA April 2016: Latest Updates

Track CYCLONE FANTALA Live

FINAL UPDATE:APRIL 21, 2016

Within 24 hours the weakening tropical cyclone will again move course roughly westward and pass the northern tip of Madagascar on April 24/25. There is little chance of it threatening Mauritius in any way.

The infrared image of the storm was taken at 0200 hours GMT today.

UPDATE: APRIL 20, 2016

Cyclone Fantala is steadily weakening and will continue to do so. It is now moving ESE. After a few days it will drift back in a WNW direction, passing the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25. It may then fizzle out mid sea or bring rainfall to the Tanzania-Mozambique border coast later. The only land area it may affect is Saint Brandon, the little isle north of Mauritius.

Interestingly forecast models are hinting at a new tropical storm in the southern Indian Ocean around April 25. This possibility is supported by NOAA in its fortnightly outlook (See map below)

UPDATE: APRIL 19, 2016

After becoming the strongest tropical cyclone recorded in the Indian Ocean (North and Southern) on April 18 with one minute sustained winds of 275 km/h, FANTALA is now weakening and moving in a southeasterly direction.

It will move so till April 23 after which it will again change direction and move west. It will hit the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25/26 as a tropical storm.

Going by present forecasts, the threat to Mauritius and Rodrigues seems to be receding.

Fantala is weakening as the latest satellite image ( April 19, 0300 hours GMT) shows

Latest track forecast for Fantala

UPDATE: APRIL 17, 2016

Fantala is presently a furious storm, with 240 km/h winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It lies about 1100 kilometres NW of Mauritius.

Reliable forecast models now agree that within 24-48 hours the cyclone will swing southeasterly. It may pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues on April 23, 2016. A direct hit on Rodrigues is not ruled out.

The cyclone is expected to weaken considerably in the coming days after April 19.

Satellite image 0730 hours GMT, April 17, 2016

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UPDATE APRIL 16, 2016. 

Even reliable forecast models are giving erratic predictions at every update. There is a possibility that cyclone Fantala might hover around about 500 kilometres NW of Mauritius for a week then weaken and make landfall into northeastern Madagascar.

But we still believe that the storm will swing southeasterly on April 19 and hit Rodrigues island on 22-23rd.

Meanwhile Fantala has intensified into a category 4 hurricane with winds that the JTWC expects to touch a whopping 130 knots (240 km/h). It presently lies about 800 kilometres north of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST ISSUED TODAY 

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UPDATE APRIL 15, 2016 - There is little change in the forecast scenario since yesterday. Fantala will continue west till April 18 as a category 3 hurricane and then swing down and move southeasterly henceforth. A direct hit on Rodrigues is possible on April 22, 2016. But by then the cyclone will have weakened considerably to a category 1 or maybe just a tropical storm.

MPE IMAGE OF CYCLONE FANTALA APRIL 15, 2016. 0600 HOURS GMT 

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UPDATE APRIL 14, 2016 - Fantala is well on its way in turning into a category 4 monster hurricane soon as it moves west. Track forecasts indicate a abrupt change in direction on April 17-18. It will weaken slightly and move southeasterly. It is to be seen if it moves betwixt Mauritius and Rodrigues or hits Rodrigues directly. This will happen on April 21.

INFRARED IMAGE APRIL 14, 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE FANTALA 0200 GMT 

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Update April 13, 2016 - All forecast models agree on Fantala's future for the next 4 days. It will move westerly in the Southern Indian Ocean, intensifying all the time and reach the northernmost tip of Madagascar. The European model ECMWF, envisages it attaining a central pressure of 945 Mb. A category 5 hurricane.

Then from April 17-18 it will abruptly change direction and move southeasterly and move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island on April 21. It will have weakened quite a bit by then. This part of the forecast is prone to change. A little shift and a direct hit on either Mauritius or Rodrigues will happen

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Update: April 12, 2016 - Cyclone Fantala has formed. It lies about 650 kilometres south of Diego Garcia and is moving west. It will continue doing so for the next 3-4 days and then will abruptly change direction and move south or south-easterly. Present forecasts say it will hit Rodrigues Island on April 20 but Mauritius cannot be deemed safe as the forecast track has been changing all the time.

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Update: April 11, 2016 - The cyclone is presently a low pressure area south of Diego Garcia. It is strengthening all the time. Our guess is it will become a tropical cyclone by April 14. As to its track, the picture is nebulous. But forecast models at present are predicting that it will pass by Mauritius/Rodrigues Island around April 20.

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We have already warned on our Twitter page about a possible tropical cyclone brewing in the southern Indian Ocean in the coming days. We had also said the cyclone Fantala was unlikely to affect Mauritius, La Reunion islands.

But recent forecasts by reliable computer forecast models hint at the possibility of Fantala turning into a massive 946 Mb storm which will hover near the northeastern coast of Madagascar by April 17, 2016.

History says any tropical cyclone in that area tends to move south or southeasterly. Hence the possibility of Fantala hitting Mauritius or La Reunion is quite strong. The GFS model envisages a massive monster hitting the isle nation.

It is also possible that the storm may move through the northern tip of Madagascar and crash into Mozambique or southern coastal Tanzania. The ECMWF model supports this scenario.

The forecast image shows the cyclone's position on April 17.

Latest satellite images of cyclone Fantala 

Cyclone Eunice Will Not Affect Mauritius, Reunion: Some Effect On Rodrigues Island

CYCLONE EUNICE WILL NOT AFFECT MAURITIUS, REUNION. SOME INFLUENCE ON RODRIGUES: It is going to be a big storm. If JTWC is to be believed, in the next two days it will turn into a cyclone with winds of 220 kph. We believe it will easily be in excess of 150 kph. The storm is 1040 kilometers North-east of Mauritius now (0615 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015). Wind speed is 90 kph.

RELEVANT TO FOLKS IN THE MASCAREIGNES: Cyclone Eunice, however big it will turn out to be, will not affect Mauritius or Reunion. Some showers in Mauritius tomorrow morning perhaps. Otherwise nothing. Rodrigues Island will be somewhat affected. But not in the measure of Bansi. There will be incessant light rains in the island for the next 48 hours, with maximum winds of 50 kph. Not more. That is because Cyclone Eunice is not going to come close to Rodrigues Island. Only the outer periphery will affect.

The cyclone will move first in a SE direction then in a easterly direction. The satellite image below was taken at 0530 hours GMT today.

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015

Cyclone CHEDZA Will Not Affect Mauritius Or Reunion

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.

Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.

0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015

CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.

The storm  lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.

CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015

Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar.  But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.

By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.

Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.

January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE

An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT.

WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...

CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.

1030 Hours, January 14, 2015

STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker

0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.

1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT  

Forecast Models Say Mauritius Faces Real Threat Of A Cyclone In A Few Days January 2015

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates on Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

January 5, 2015

Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.

We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.

GFS

A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.

Special GFS

The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.

European Model

The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.

Canadian CMC

The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.

NAVGEM

The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.

Update: January 6, 2015

Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

December 31, 2014: XWF-WEATHER Forecast Summary

Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal is in its death throes. Within the next 36 hours it will dissipate. But weather will be overcast and windy in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh till then. Some showers expected in these areas.

Tropical Storm Jangmi has weakened into a depression as it heads to Palawan. For the next few days it will move towards southern Thailand (And northern Malaysia) and bring rains there. Just that. Rains.

Australia is staring at a big cyclone in early January, 2015. North and Western coasts of the country. Cyclone Lam is imminent.

In south west Indian Ocean two tropical cyclones seem likely. First will affect southern Madagascar. The second will hit Mauritius and La Reunion around January 12, 2015.

December 30, 2014: Today's Forecasts In A Nut-Shell

LATEST XWF-WEATHER FORECASTS: A SUMMARY

Depression 95B has proved to have more stamina than expected. It is braving the cold waters as it ascends the latitudes in the Bay of Bengal. Likely to dissipate by January 2, 2015. Rains expected in east coast of India and Bangladesh.

Jangmi will not intensify much but will reach Thailand as a rain-maker. 

Kate goes strong as a category 3 hurricane tearing down the S Indian Ocean. Will start weakening soon.

North West Australia faces Cyclone Lam on January 6, 2015. Even Perth will be affected.

The Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, Reunion) will have a depression first (Or a cyclone) than may be a big cyclone on January 15-16, 2015.