97S Turns Into Tropical Cyclone 8S (Diamondra): 98S To Become One On January 29, 2015

Update: 1430 Hours GMT, January 27, 2015

TROPICAL CYCLONE 8S HAS BEEN OFFICIALLY NAMED CYCLONE DIAMONDRA.: It lies now at 18.39 Degrees South, 78 Degrees East. Sustained winds are 75 kph. It is expected to move in a south-west direction. There is no possibility of it coming in the direction of Mascareignes. Right now it is hundreds of kilometers away and it is going to stay that way. Just for the record, Diamondra is going to be no Bansi, but nothing to sneeze at. In 48 hours it will be throwing out winds in excess of 125 kph.

Cyclone Diamondra. WV satellite image take n at 1330 hours GMT, January 27, 2015

Update: 0330 hours GMT, January 27, 2015

As expected 97S has obliged and turned into tropical cyclone 8S. That is what the JTWC calls it. It should soon be christened DIAMONDRA. Another two days and 98S will also turn into a cyclone. Looking at their forecast paths it seems likely that none of them will affect Mascareignes. Though the European (ECMWF) Model says cyclone 98S' (Eunice) periphery might influence Rodrigues Island.

Cyclone 8S presently lies about 1800 kilometers east of Mauritius. It is expected to intensify in the coming days and move in a south-easterly direction. 

In the next two days 98S too will turn into a tropical cyclone. It will be named Eunice. Presently 98S lies about 700 kilometers north-east of Mauritius. On January 29 it will intensify and move south-easterly. It's outer periphery might affect Rodrigues Island on January 30, 2015.

0000 HRS GMT JANUARY 27, 2015. THIS INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN SHOWS CYCLONE 8S AND ALSO STORM 98S WHICH WILL TURN INTO A CYCLONE ON JANUARY 29-30.

CYCLONE 8S (DIAMONDRA?) TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC ISSUED AT 2100 HRS, JANUARY 26, 2015

How We Covered Cyclone Bansi (Warts and all): In Brief

Cyclone coming to Mascarene Islands in South West Indian Ocean soon. Major forecast models unanimous. Read exhaustive analysis.
January 5, 2015

This area in the SW Indian Ocean will throw up a cyclone in the next few days - January 5, 2015

Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015.
January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT

Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.
January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.
January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT

Satellite image of SW Indian Ocean. A tropical Cyclone Bansi is brewing in the waters near Mauritius. Image taken at 0430 hours GMT, January 10, 2015.

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 1400 HRS, JANUARY 10, 2015 OF SW INDIAN OCEAN

The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!).
This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news.
January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT

92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.
January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Storm 92S is intensifying. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.
January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT

Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015.

NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it TC '5S'. When will the Met folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?
January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT

The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI. 
January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT

BANSI: A POSSIBLE SUPER CYCLONE?
According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.
January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

THE EUROPEAN MODEL ECMWF HAS BAD NEWS for folks in the Rodrigues Island. According to it Cyclone Bansi is going to move right through it on January 15-16 with 150+ kph winds. Mauritius and Reunion will get off lightly.
1630 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015

LATEST FORECAST BY REUNION MET GUYS AT 0000 HRS GMT, TODAY expects the cyclone to rapidly intensify into a storm with winds of 170 kph, gusts up to 215 kph in the next 24 hours. The 170 kph we talk here are "sustained winds" over a 10 minutes period. The Americans define sustained winds over a 1 minute period so the figures will be higher. That means a Category 3 (Or 4) hurricane. Believe me, this is a very very windy storm. The Reunion Met further sticks to its earlier prediction that Bansi will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues on January 15, 2015. We have to analyse the track by seeing the forecasts of the GFS Model and the US Navy's JTWC. These guys are generally very accurate.
0200 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015

0200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 12, 2015. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI The eye is clearly visible. Sign of a powerful storm.

THE SPECIAL GFS FORECAST MODEL DIFFERS FROM GFS, ECMWF AND JTWC ON BANSI'S FUTURE TRACK. It predicts the cyclone is going to move east over the next two-three and then make a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on Thursday. If this happens Mauritius will escape relatively unscathed, but Rodrigues is in for a very bad time. Howling winds of 200+ kph for 2-3 days as the storm passes right through. The good news is the other major models say the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. Let us see how the Special GFS forecast fares as from January 14, 2015, this is going to become the official GFS Model. The older GFS will cease to exist.
0400 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

CYCLONE BANSI IS NOW 280 KILOMETERS NORTH OF MAURITIUS. The storm has moved east in the last 12 hours. Our estimate is that sustained winds are about 150 kph. Gusts would be 200 kph. Mauritius is now experiencing sustained winds of 60-70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. The winds there are blowing from the east presently. The exact position of the cyclone now is 17.52* South, 57.37* East. The storm's eye is clearly visible. The diameter of the eye is 32 kilometers. The center of the storm, where there is deceptive calm. Hardly any winds. Just a gentle breeze of 6 kph. Little clouds. Someone in the eye of the storm would feel as if there was no storm. Perhaps even the sun may be visible. But that area of the eye is the most dangerous place in the world to be in. Just a few kilometers all around are some of the most destructive winds, the so-called "Eye Wall". The winds there are the strongest. Howling at 150-200 kph.
0200 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015. 

GFS AND SPECIAL GFS SAY RODRIGUES ISLAND WILL SUFFER A NEAR DIRECT HIT FROM BANSI: The other models (ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM) say cyclone Bansi will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues. In their forecasts the GFS and SPECIAL GFS disagree. They predict the storm will move eastward more than what the other models say. It will start curving SE late. Which means Rodrigues will suffer a near direct hit. The eye of the cyclone will not pass right through but bad enough.Winds of 150+ kph. Gusts much more. Bansi will start moving into Rodrigues on late Thursday (January 15) evening and take 24 hours to pass through. If that happens Mauritius will get off far more lightly.
Present position of cyclone Bansi: 17.45*South, 57.48*East. 350 kilometers north of Mauritius
10.30 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015 

BANSI CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST DAY BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO A SUPER CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. The winds have dropped (relatively) to 200 kph now. But it has started intensifying again. It will do so in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow morning (Mauritius Time) it will be a Category 5 hurricane again. Sustained winds of 260 kph (140 Knots, 162 mph ) Gusts up to a staggering 315 kph.(170 Knots, 195 mph).
January 14, 0200 Hours GMT, 2015 

RODRIGUES ISLAND IN FOR A DIRECT HIT BY CYCLONE BANSI: Latest GFS forecasts confirm that the Rodrigues Island is going to get badly battered by the storm. Almost a direct hit. The storm will start moving into the island from 0600 hours GMT, January 15, that is tomorrow morning local time. The winds then will start getting progressively worse as the storm moves in. Winds well in excess of 150 kph will hammer the island for 48 hours till January 17, 2015. Gusts will be more. Bad news for folks on Rodrigues Island.
0400 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015 

THE FOCUS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO RODRIGUES ISLAND. BECAUSE IT STANDS IN THE PATH OF A POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE CALLED BANSI. This island is going to bear the brunt of the storm's fury. The cyclone presently lies 580 kilometers WNW of Rodrigues Island. On January 15, Thursday, evening local time Bansi will start knocking on the doorstep. Winds will start rising rapidly as the cyclone will start moving in. Soon 150-200 kph winds will start battering the island. The eye will pass on the next day morning. That is Friday morning. The howling will continue till late Friday evening after which the winds will slowly taper off. 24 hours of insane gale and torrential rainfall. Nature at its angriest. That is what is going to happen to Rodrigues Island in the next 48 hours.
1000 Hours, January 14, 2015.

CYCLONE BANSI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. The winds according to our observation have dropped to 110 kph. We have to see what the forecast models say to know if the storm will keep weakening or is it just a lull before an intensification. The cyclone has come a little closer to Mauritius. 305 kilometers NNE of Mauritius. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.
1230 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

LATEST GFS FORECAST FOR BANSI ISSUED AT 1200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 14, 2015. It says it seems Mauritius is safe but Rodrigues Island is in for trouble. Cyclone Bansi might have weakened in the last six hours but it is going to start intensifying again soon. And Rodrigues Island is going to face an intensifying storm tomorrow night (Mauritius Local Time). The wind predictions we have outlined earlier still hold. Bansi is down but not out. It is going to intensify again. In conclusion, Mauritius seems safe from an direct hit. Rodrigues is in for it.
0330 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015. 

0630 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015. Cyclone Bansi. Notice Storm 93S in the Mozambique Channel.

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015 

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND?
Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015 

1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI

CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0400 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015 

BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND:
Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015

Cyclone CHEDZA Will Not Affect Mauritius Or Reunion

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.

Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.

0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015

CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.

The storm  lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.

CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015

Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar.  But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.

By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.

Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.

January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE

An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT.

WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...

CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.

1030 Hours, January 14, 2015

STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker

0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.

1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT  

Post Kate, South Indian Ocean May Spawn Two (Three?) Cyclones: North West Australia To Face "Lam".

Update: December 29, 2014

The South Indian Ocean is gonna give birth to two more tropical cyclones, Bansi and Lam in the coming days, post-Kate. Australia may face its first cyclone this season. There is also some indication that another cyclone might come visiting to the Mascareignes in mid-January.

The ocean is most vigorous right now. The mighty Pacific could only throw up a weak Jangmi, in contrast the Indian Ocean is throwing out fistful of storms. Even the northern Indian Ocean gave rise to a depression 95B in mid winter. The Southern part has a energetic Cyclone Kate moving down south whipping up sustained winds of 125 kph.

The ocean has more in store for us. Two more cyclones in the coming week. Bansi and Lam. Targets? Madagascar and North-West Australia.

Cyclone Bansi will come first. It will be born as a low pressure in the Mozambique Channel, the strip of Indian Ocean between the African mainland and the island of Madagascar. It will born in the next 24 hours. It will remian an innocuous low pressure for some time  like any of the numerous "L" that bob around the ocean. But come January 4, 2015 and it will start intensifying. It will then move round southern Madagascar (An intelligent storm???) and enter South West Indian Ocean proper. And intensify into Tropical Cyclone Bansi by January 8. Bansi will be a storm with a central pressure of 994 Mb, something like Kate. It is not expected to move north towards Reunion or Mauritius but move south into the powerful westerlies.

Cyclone Lam  This will be born off the coast of North-West Australia (Near Broome) on January 4, 2015. It will then toddle around in that part of south east Indian ocean, intensifying all the while. Lam is gonna be bigger than Bansi. Central Pressure of 989 Mb. This storm is going to make landfall near the Australian town of Exmouth and Barrow Island on January 10, 2014.

It is still early days. So one can hardly be certain of the intensity and path the upcoming cyclone is gonna take.

Parting Tidbit

Around January 14, 2015, Mauritius and La Reunion may have a tropical cyclone as an unwanted guest. If early model forecasts available with XWF-WEATHER are to be believed this is going to be a nasty storm which will come over from northern Madagascar. May be 'Chedza' will follow 'Bansi' soon this January.

Cyclone Kate Forms In South Indian Ocean

Update: December 25, 2014

In a twist of bureaucratic technicality Cempaka became Kate. Since the cyclone formed lower than 10 degrees south latitude the Australian Met got the honors of christening the storm and not Indonesia.

We had been predicting the arrival of cyclone Kate for the last few days. At 0000 hours GMT today it lay at 11.4 degrees south and 97.2 degrees east with wind speed of 65 kph; The cut-off to be named a cyclone.

For the next two days Kate is just going to toddle around the waters of the South Indian Ocean remaining at the same strength, not weakening, not strengthening. Come December 27, 2014 and Kate will swing into action. She will start intensifying rapidly. She may reach wind speeds of 100 kph and move south.

But Cyclone Kate is going to be short-lived. On December 29, the storm will experience the strong westerlies which will literally tear it apart.

The Cyclone Kate Forecast Track Path issued by the JTWC at 0300 hours GMT today

Cyclone CEMPAKA To Form Off Indonesia.Cyclone NUTE Forming In South Pacific. Depression Heading To Indian East Coast.

Update: December 23, 2014

The oceans are getting restive again, eager to restore the balance (That is why storms form; to restore atmospheric balance). Tropical Cyclone Cempaka is likely to form on December 26, 2014. The South Pacific will throw up a storm. Cyclone Nute is forming right now, north of Vanuatu Island. And a depression will form near the Indian Andaman Islands and move to the Indian east coast.

Let us start with Cyclone Nute. The storm is a low pressure now and lay at 14.1 Degrees South and 159.9 Degrees West with winds of 35 kph. It presently lies about 1000 kms east of American Samoa Island. It is already intensifying and is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours and move in a SW direction. The only inhabited islands to be affected are French Polynesia and Cook Island.

By the way, the same area in the South Pacific is going to spew another storm (Cyclone Odile) in another 2-3 days. This storm will hit the American Samoa Islands.

Now for cyclone Cempaka. It will be born south of the area where the short-lived Bakung was born; Off the coast of Java. It lies as an "invest" (An area of disturbances where a meteorologist thinks a storm will develop) at 9.7 degrees South, and 100.4 degrees East. Come December 26, 2014 and it may develop into cyclone Cempaka. Now this storm is going to go straight into the Indian Ocean. No inhabited islands are around so only the sipping lanes will be affected. The storm will dissipate on December 29.

Deep Depression In Bay Of Bengal

And now the rain-maker depression which is going to drench the Indian east coast. The storm will form near the Central Andaman Islands and head west on December 24, 2014, that is tomorrow. It will reach Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu on December 28, 2014. When it nears the land masses it will swerve away and move along the Indian coast in the Bay of Bengal in the next 2-3 days. So rains are expected along the entire Indian east coast. That includes the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal. It is going to bring rains even to Bangladesh. So expect rains in all these areas by the end of the month (And year). Only the coastal areas will receive the rains.

There is a possibility that this depression might reach cyclone status when it coasts pass Tamil Nadu.

Another Typhoon In Philippines?

There is good chance that another typhoon is heading Philippines' way. A storm is brewing in the Pacific, a few hundred kilometres east of Philippines now. It will move west and is likely to make landfall in southern part of the country on December 27' 2014. We feel it might not reach tropical cyclone strength and will remain a deep depression. Lots of rains and very windy in Mindanao on December 27-28. Or will turn into typhoon Jangmi?

In The Next 15 Days.....A Cyclone Forming In South Pacific

Update, December 22, 2014.

• A typhoon may hit central Philippines on December 27, 2014 in the Visayas.
• A cyclone may form in the South Indian Ocean on December 26, 2014. No land areas will be affected.
• A depression has formed in the south Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu, east of the Australian coast. It is expected to intensify into a cyclone in the next 24 hours. It,s present winds are 35 kph. The storm will move SSE.
• Water vapor satellite image
• 

Bakung Will Come To Mascareignes As A Depression

Update: December 15, 2014

The chances of Bakung turning into a significant storm is getting remote.. The earlier forecasts hinting at a Category 2 hurricane seem to be receding.

Bakung is a mere Tropical Depression now. It has moved east in the last few days. It lies about 1000 kms ESE of Diego Garcia.

Most models agree that it is not going to move south as earlier predicted but move SW towards the Mascarene Islands. It is likely it will reach these islands as a depression by the end of the month. The GEM Model differs from the others. It foresees Bakung rejuvenating and A NEW storm being born in the coming week. And this storm (and not Bakung) will hit the Mascarene Islands around December 25, 2014. The model furthers says it will be a cyclone, not a mere depression.

Things are confused now. We have to wait for a few days till the "fog" clears.

Cyclone Bakung as seen on December 12, 2014

Cyclone Bakung Will Turn Out To Be A Category 2 Hurricane

Update: December 13, 2014

Cyclone Bakung which is at present hovering in the south Indian Ocean will intensify into a 140+ kph storm. Where will it go? What will be its path, track?

It lies 1200 kms ESE of Diego Garcia now (0430 Hours GMT). Winds are 75 kph. In the coming days it will intensify gradually to a storm with sustained winds of 150+ kph. Though there is a likelihood that it might go north and rather than start moving south straight away. Most probably it will steam down south in the Indian ocean without any land mass, in the stretch between Africa and Australia.

But forecasts differ. The European model predicts it will not strengthen in to something big but remain a weak storm but its direction will be different. A SW direction. Meaning it will head to Mascareignes.

Bakung will potter around its present area for a few days then on December 16, it will intensify rapidly into a 150 kph cyclone.

The chances of it hitting Mauritius is remote now. Only the Europeans support this track. The Americans predict a stronger storm which will go straight south and embrace the Westerlies and perish around December 22-23.

Cyclone BAKUNG Has Formed Off Sumatra In Southern Indian Ocean

Update: December 12, 2014: CYCLONE BAKUNG IS INTENSIFYING NOW

Bansi is Bakung. The cyclone was born in Indonesia's area of meteorological influence, hence it go the honors to do the christening. But it is likely that this cyclone will recognise no bureaucratic areas of influence and may head to Mascareignes after a long long journey (ala Hagupit which traveled for 12 days). Right now cyclone Bakung is intensifying in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. By December 15 it will be a 100+ kph storm.

Its future is uncertain. It may head straight south to commit suicide fighting the mighty Westerlies. Or it might take a SW course and reach the Mascareignes after a long journey. Some say it will be a big storm, central pressure of 979. Others say it will trudge along as a depression. Most track forecasts only go uptil 5 days. Bakung seems to have everybody confused and divided.

See "Bakung" Track Forecast

The forecasts differ because they have different estimates of wind shear that Bakung is going to face. The GFS forecasts a high shear so it says the storm will not go far or will not intensify much. The other models give it a more favourable conditions, so it will flourish and go far.

For folks in the Mascareignes, where the local met departments follow the European Forecast Model, there is bad news. The ECMWF (The European Model) predicts Bakung is going to come hunting in your waters as a big bad storm. Especially vulnerable is Rodrigues Island whom Cyclone Bakung might affect after December 23, 2014.

It is a storm to watch. It is going to travel a long distance.

Update: December 10, 2014

Future storm Bansi is very much on. NOAA has started monitoring the system labeled "90S". Presently it lies a few hundred kms off Sumatra, In the coming days it is going to travel a long way heading south into the Indian Ocean. In a few days it will turn into a cyclone. Most forecasts say it will be quite a storm with a central pressure of 973. After December 16 it will intensify rapidly. It is not going to affect any land mass. Mascareignes is safe.

December 9, 2014
Update: December 11, 2014
Even the JTWC has taken note of 90S. Its present winds are about 40 kph. The JTWC believes it may turn into a significant tropical storm in the next 24 hours. The various models have different forecasts. Some predict it will be quite a storm with a pressure of 973, other say 985 mb. The tracks also differ wildly. Some say it will go south. Others say it will dissipate after a few days (Or remain a depression).

But this future storm is worth watching. It has forecast models confused. So had Hagupit a few days earlier.

Update: December 9, 2014
Yeah! Forecasts say our man cyclone Bansi is back! It is going to form in the next few days off the coast of Indonesia and then slowly intensify and travel a long way passing by Rodrigues Island on December 23, 2014. Presently it is a low pressure area just off Sumatra Island. (See It LIVE)

This storm has sent us on a wild goose chase. A few days ago the depression in the southern Indian Ocean failed to make it to cyclone grade and be named Bansi.

But if latest forecasts are to be believed Bansi is coming as a big bad storm! Not a super cyclone but a  big storm with a respectable central pressure of 973 Mb.

The formation of Bansi is corroborated by three forecast models, only the intensities vary.

Keep in touch for latest news of Bansi's antics.

See "Bansi" Live

Forecast Map: Cyclone Bansi on December 16, 2014