How We Covered Cyclone Bansi (Warts and all): In Brief

Cyclone coming to Mascarene Islands in South West Indian Ocean soon. Major forecast models unanimous. Read exhaustive analysis.
January 5, 2015

This area in the SW Indian Ocean will throw up a cyclone in the next few days - January 5, 2015

Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015.
January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT

Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.
January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.
January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT

Satellite image of SW Indian Ocean. A tropical Cyclone Bansi is brewing in the waters near Mauritius. Image taken at 0430 hours GMT, January 10, 2015.

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 1400 HRS, JANUARY 10, 2015 OF SW INDIAN OCEAN

The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!).
This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news.
January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT

92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.
January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Storm 92S is intensifying. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.
January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT

Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015.

NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it TC '5S'. When will the Met folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?
January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT

The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI. 
January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT

BANSI: A POSSIBLE SUPER CYCLONE?
According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.
January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

THE EUROPEAN MODEL ECMWF HAS BAD NEWS for folks in the Rodrigues Island. According to it Cyclone Bansi is going to move right through it on January 15-16 with 150+ kph winds. Mauritius and Reunion will get off lightly.
1630 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015

LATEST FORECAST BY REUNION MET GUYS AT 0000 HRS GMT, TODAY expects the cyclone to rapidly intensify into a storm with winds of 170 kph, gusts up to 215 kph in the next 24 hours. The 170 kph we talk here are "sustained winds" over a 10 minutes period. The Americans define sustained winds over a 1 minute period so the figures will be higher. That means a Category 3 (Or 4) hurricane. Believe me, this is a very very windy storm. The Reunion Met further sticks to its earlier prediction that Bansi will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues on January 15, 2015. We have to analyse the track by seeing the forecasts of the GFS Model and the US Navy's JTWC. These guys are generally very accurate.
0200 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015

0200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 12, 2015. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI The eye is clearly visible. Sign of a powerful storm.

THE SPECIAL GFS FORECAST MODEL DIFFERS FROM GFS, ECMWF AND JTWC ON BANSI'S FUTURE TRACK. It predicts the cyclone is going to move east over the next two-three and then make a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on Thursday. If this happens Mauritius will escape relatively unscathed, but Rodrigues is in for a very bad time. Howling winds of 200+ kph for 2-3 days as the storm passes right through. The good news is the other major models say the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. Let us see how the Special GFS forecast fares as from January 14, 2015, this is going to become the official GFS Model. The older GFS will cease to exist.
0400 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

CYCLONE BANSI IS NOW 280 KILOMETERS NORTH OF MAURITIUS. The storm has moved east in the last 12 hours. Our estimate is that sustained winds are about 150 kph. Gusts would be 200 kph. Mauritius is now experiencing sustained winds of 60-70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. The winds there are blowing from the east presently. The exact position of the cyclone now is 17.52* South, 57.37* East. The storm's eye is clearly visible. The diameter of the eye is 32 kilometers. The center of the storm, where there is deceptive calm. Hardly any winds. Just a gentle breeze of 6 kph. Little clouds. Someone in the eye of the storm would feel as if there was no storm. Perhaps even the sun may be visible. But that area of the eye is the most dangerous place in the world to be in. Just a few kilometers all around are some of the most destructive winds, the so-called "Eye Wall". The winds there are the strongest. Howling at 150-200 kph.
0200 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015. 

GFS AND SPECIAL GFS SAY RODRIGUES ISLAND WILL SUFFER A NEAR DIRECT HIT FROM BANSI: The other models (ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM) say cyclone Bansi will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues. In their forecasts the GFS and SPECIAL GFS disagree. They predict the storm will move eastward more than what the other models say. It will start curving SE late. Which means Rodrigues will suffer a near direct hit. The eye of the cyclone will not pass right through but bad enough.Winds of 150+ kph. Gusts much more. Bansi will start moving into Rodrigues on late Thursday (January 15) evening and take 24 hours to pass through. If that happens Mauritius will get off far more lightly.
Present position of cyclone Bansi: 17.45*South, 57.48*East. 350 kilometers north of Mauritius
10.30 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015 

BANSI CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST DAY BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO A SUPER CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. The winds have dropped (relatively) to 200 kph now. But it has started intensifying again. It will do so in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow morning (Mauritius Time) it will be a Category 5 hurricane again. Sustained winds of 260 kph (140 Knots, 162 mph ) Gusts up to a staggering 315 kph.(170 Knots, 195 mph).
January 14, 0200 Hours GMT, 2015 

RODRIGUES ISLAND IN FOR A DIRECT HIT BY CYCLONE BANSI: Latest GFS forecasts confirm that the Rodrigues Island is going to get badly battered by the storm. Almost a direct hit. The storm will start moving into the island from 0600 hours GMT, January 15, that is tomorrow morning local time. The winds then will start getting progressively worse as the storm moves in. Winds well in excess of 150 kph will hammer the island for 48 hours till January 17, 2015. Gusts will be more. Bad news for folks on Rodrigues Island.
0400 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015 

THE FOCUS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO RODRIGUES ISLAND. BECAUSE IT STANDS IN THE PATH OF A POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE CALLED BANSI. This island is going to bear the brunt of the storm's fury. The cyclone presently lies 580 kilometers WNW of Rodrigues Island. On January 15, Thursday, evening local time Bansi will start knocking on the doorstep. Winds will start rising rapidly as the cyclone will start moving in. Soon 150-200 kph winds will start battering the island. The eye will pass on the next day morning. That is Friday morning. The howling will continue till late Friday evening after which the winds will slowly taper off. 24 hours of insane gale and torrential rainfall. Nature at its angriest. That is what is going to happen to Rodrigues Island in the next 48 hours.
1000 Hours, January 14, 2015.

CYCLONE BANSI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. The winds according to our observation have dropped to 110 kph. We have to see what the forecast models say to know if the storm will keep weakening or is it just a lull before an intensification. The cyclone has come a little closer to Mauritius. 305 kilometers NNE of Mauritius. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.
1230 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

LATEST GFS FORECAST FOR BANSI ISSUED AT 1200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 14, 2015. It says it seems Mauritius is safe but Rodrigues Island is in for trouble. Cyclone Bansi might have weakened in the last six hours but it is going to start intensifying again soon. And Rodrigues Island is going to face an intensifying storm tomorrow night (Mauritius Local Time). The wind predictions we have outlined earlier still hold. Bansi is down but not out. It is going to intensify again. In conclusion, Mauritius seems safe from an direct hit. Rodrigues is in for it.
0330 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015. 

0630 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015. Cyclone Bansi. Notice Storm 93S in the Mozambique Channel.

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015 

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND?
Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015 

1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI

CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0400 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015 

BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND:
Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015

Future Possible Super Cyclone Bansi Has Been Born As 92S In SW Indian Ocean

Update: December 9, 2015

The monster has been spawned. Possible super storm 'Bansi' (NOAA calls it 92S) was born yesterday evening just a few hundred kilometers north-west of the Mascareignes. It lies now (At 0000 Hours, GMT, December 9, 2015) at 18.9 South and 53.9 East. Pressure 1007 Mb. An innocuous little 'low'. In a day or two it will start transforming into a massive super-cyclone, if some forecast models are to be believed.

The storm has been born very near Mauritius and Reunion. That is worrying as we have already discussed before. There is little response time between the official storm warning and the actual cyclone hit. Anyway.

What is frightening is that the normally reticent ECMWF Model predicts Bansi will be a cyclone with a central pressure of 932 Mb. A massive powerful storm with a diameter that would cover the entire peninsular India. Big. Big. The lower the central pressure the more intense the storm. Simply put, it mean stronger winds. Real bad news.

The only good news is that Bansi will turn into a monster only after it leaves the Mascareignes. Some consolation. Latest GFS forecasts say when Bansi will be moving over Mauritius it have winds in excess of 150 kph.. Yeah. The latest forecast bulletin, issued at 0000 hours GMT today, says Bansi is going to hit Mauritius head on.

Time of impact? Morning of January 13, 2015. Coming Tuesday morning.

The storm will turn into a tropical cyclone on January 12, 2015. Monday. Three days to go. We suggest that instead of waiting for the official confirmation of Bansi, start making preparations for a 150 kph storm in the coming days. That includes folks in Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues Island. Because the cyclone may make a direct hit anywhere.

Cyclone Chedza

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on january 13, 2015.


Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

Infra-Red Images of 92S taken at 0300 hours GMT, today (January 9, 2015)

Cyclone Bansi Moving Into Rodrigues Island

BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND: Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015

CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they  will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0430 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015

0300 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 16, 2015.. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI

LATEST POSITION OF CYCLONE BANSI NOW: Current location of storm: 18.25*South, 61.40*East. Current sustained wind speed: 145 kph, gusts up to 180 kph. Bansi is 270 kilometers NW of Rodrigues Island. Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge. 

We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015

1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI

THE JTWC EXPECTS CYCLONE BANSI TO BE A SUPER CYCLONE SOON: Bad news from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for folks in the Rodrigues Island. In its latest bulletin issued at 0900 Hours GMT, today (January 15, 2015), it has a scary prediction That Cyclone Bansi which had weakened greatly yesterday (Leading to the Local Met saying "No Cyclone") is intensifying very rapidly and is gonna become a Category 5 hurricane or a super Cyclone, which ever you like it. In a few hours, even as we write this. And that it is going to stay a super cyclone for another 3 days, till January 18, 2015.The JTWC says Bansi has an eye of 85 kilometers. Translate that as big, big trouble for Rodrigues Island. At its peak, the JTWC foretells, Bansi is gonna have howling winds of 270 kph, gusting up to 320 kph. Nature at its nastiest. Folks in Rodrigues: Please take all precautions and take care. We would like to add here that we do not support this prediction. We think the winds will be in the range of 100 kph to 140 kph. It depends on which quadrant of the cyclone passes through Rodrigues. Some are more windier than others. The nightmare prediction from JTWC should be taken with a pinch of salt.
1030 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

0900 HRS, GMT, JAN 15, 2015 JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE BANSI. JTWC BELIEVES BANSI IS GOING TO TURN INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.

We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015

CYCLONE BANSI CURRENT STATUS: Position: 18.34*South, 61.19*East. 278 kilometers WNW of Rorigues Island. Sustained Wind Speed: 120 kph, gusts 160 kph.
1130 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

THE WINDS in Mauritius have already started picking up. Not because Bansi is moving but because it is intensifying. The winds will continuously get worse as Bansi slowly approaches and starts intensifying at the same time.  The winds will be worst on January 14, 2015 (Wednesday) as the cyclone passes by. They will start tapering off from January 15. Reunion will get off lightly. Mauritius may get winds in excess of 100 kph. Gusting more.

1130 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: JAN 14-15, 2015. CYCLONE BANSI PASSES MAURITIUS

POSITION AT 1100 HRS GMT, JANUARY 11, 2015: 16.95*S, 54.34*E. About 600 kilometers NNE of Reunion. It has moved in a ENE (East-North-East) direction. See the LIVE Map

1100 HRS GMT, January 11, 2015

According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. One thing both the models agree on is that this cyclone is going to intensify very rapidly in the next 48 hours. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.

January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI.

January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT

NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it  TC '5S'. When will the Met  folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?

January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT

CYCLONE BANSI, 0900 HOURS GMT, JAN 11, 2015

JANUARY 11, 2015, 0600 HRS GMT, CYCLONE BANSI WATER VAPOR IMAGE

The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!). This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news. Mauritius and Rodrigues Island will be most affected. Especially Rodrigues.

January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT

Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015.

92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.

January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Storm 92S is intensifying. It's central pressure is now slipping below 1000 Mb. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.

January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT

The present position of Mozambique Channel depression (Future Chedza) is 16.75* S, 42.76*E. 500 kilometers SSE of Mozambique City. Winds: 45 kph in the areas north of the storm.

January 10, 2015,  1400 Hours GMT

The present position of Storm 92S (Future Bansi, SW Indian Ocean): 17.20 Degrees South, 53.29 Degrees East. About 500 kilometers north-west of Mauritius and Reunion. Wind speed is 45 kph.Winds in Mauritius now are about 30 kph. Reunion: 16 kph.

January 10, 2015, 1330 Hours, GMT

LATEST TRACK FORECAST ACCORDING TO METEO-FRANCE FOR UPCOMING CYCLONE BANSI

TRACK FORECAST FOR BANSI CYCLONE ACCORDING TO VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THE 'GEM' IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. OTHERS ARE THE NOAA'S GFS AND US NAVY'S NAVGEM

SATELLITE IMAGE OF 92S AT 0300 HRS, JANUARY 11, 2015

The European Model has bad news. According to latest forecasts issued, Cyclone Bansi is going to intensify very rapidly after forming. Even when it will be passing over Mascareignes it's central pressure will fall by an astounding 50 Mb in 48 hours! Some very rapid intensification here. Bad news for Mauritius. Later when it leaves Mascareignes, it's central pressure will fall to 907 Mb! Bansi is gonna be a very powerful storm. In the league of cyclones Hondo (2007-8), Edzani (2009-10) and Bruce (2013-14). They had central minimum pressures of 906, 910 and 912 Mb respectively. They had maximum sustained winds of 215, 220 and 230 kph respectively All these were SW Indian Ocean cyclones

January 10, 2015, 1100 Hours, GMT

SATELLITE WATER-VAPOR IMAGE OF 92S TAKEN AT 1200 HRS GMT, JAN 10, 2015

Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.

January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT

Tropical Storm CHEDZA will form on January 13, 2015 in the Mozambique Channel. In a day or two after that it will move into central Madagascar. It will not be a big storm.

January 10, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

Another tropical storm is coming to the Philippines. Around January 17, 2015. Typhoon Mekkhala will not be a very powerful storm; nothing like Hagupit. It will strike central Philippines. It might turn out to be even weaker; Just a depression. A big rain-maker.

January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The European Model predicts Bansi will affect Mauritius more than Reunion. When it passes over the Mascareignes it will not be very powerful. Once it moves into the Indian Ocean it will turn into a very big storm throwing winds of 200 kph. A diameter of about 1200 kilometers.

January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.

January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The NAVGEM Model has a scary prediction. That 'Bansi' is going to take 3-4 days to move past Rodrigues Island. Strengthening all the time. Please take this forecast coming from NAVGEM, with a large pinch of salt.

January 9, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

The Canadian Model predicts the cyclone Bansi will form very close to Mauritius on January 11, 2015. It forecasts gustier storm in Mauritius than the GFS.  The NAVGEM has the worst news. Storm will form on January 11 and Mascareignes (Worst affected: Rodrigues Island) will face 150+ kph winds. The US Navy Model goes onto say Bansi will turn later into a 936 Mb super cyclone.(Away from the Mascareignes).

January 9, 2015 0600 Hours GMT

GFS predicts a central pressure of 975 Mb. So-so storm. About 140 kph sustained winds. Special GFS says Bansi will intensify into a cyclone on January 13, after it starts leaving Mascareignes waters.

January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on January 13, 2015.

January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Latest forecasts say the storm will move through Rodrigues as it keeps intensifying. The effect on Mauritius and Reunion will be comparatively less. It will turn into a very big storm after it moves away south from Mascareignes.

January 8, 2015, 1200 Hours GMT

NAVGEM envisages Bansi turning into something close to a super cyclone. Thanks heavens it will intensify to a central pressure of 929 mb (Wow!) only after it leaves the Mascareignes far behind. Phew!

January 8, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

Latest reliable forecasts say the upcoming cyclone will be a bigger threat to Rodrigues than Mauritius and Reunion. The storm will begin to form in the next 48 hours.

January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

The Canadian Model says Bansi will form tomorrow (January 9, 2015) morning (Mauritius Time).  It  has a scary story for Philippines. A massive typhoon will hit the country on January 16, 2015. Though other major models say it will be just a depression hitting central Philippines.

January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

The US Navy's NAVGEM has a terrifying prediction. That Bansi will be a massive storm with central pressure of 956 mb and winds of 170+ kph. It will hit Rodrigues Island head-on.

January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

Another possibility that the present low NW of Mauritius moves east in the next 4-5 days and THEN intensify into a storm. The storm in the Mozambique Channel forms first around January 12, 2015. If this happens the Mozambique Channel storm will become 'Bansi' and the 'Mauritius' storm becomes Chedza. In this scenario Chedza will affect the Rodrigues Island more than Mauritius and Reunion.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.

January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT

Both the GFS and Special GFS foretell a tropical storm near Papua New Guinea in a day or two. The former says it will move south into the Pacific, the latter predicts it will hit Queensland on January 13, 2015. CMC and NAVGEM support the formation of the cyclone on January 9.

January 7, 2015, 0500 Hours, GMT

Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. In sharp contrast Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015. See the storm forming and grow. LIVE.

January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT

Philippines is for another either a wet depression or a tropical storm around January 16, 2015.

January 7, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

It is possible that the present low near Kimberley, NW Australia may not intensify into a cyclone but move inland just as a low pressure area. A rain-maker, nothing else. The NAVGEM, in contrast, says a big cyclone will form. The European model heartily agrees.

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The European Model (Followed by Meteo France) says a low will develop near Mauritius tomorrow which will intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi on January 11-12. The CMC is bullish on Bansi. Expects it to form on January 9. It envisages a powerful storm with 150 kph winds but the horror story (coming from CMC) should be taken with a pinch of salt. The NAVGEM foresees two cyclones forming in the next 4 days. Bansi in the Mozambique Channel day after tomorrow and Chedza near Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Whew!

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The latest GFS forecast hints at the cyclone in the SW Indian Ocean developing near the coast of SE Madagascar on January 12, 2015, and then moving in a SW direction, thus not affecting the Mascareignes.

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The Canadian model CMC has a horrifying prediction for the folks in the Mascareignes. It says the upcoming cyclone is going to be a large diameter storm. About 300-350 kilometres! Even worse follows. The storm is going to move over the area very slowly. That means real bad news.

January 6, 2015. 1200 Hours GMT 

Post Kate, South Indian Ocean May Spawn Two (Three?) Cyclones: North West Australia To Face "Lam".

Update: December 29, 2014

The South Indian Ocean is gonna give birth to two more tropical cyclones, Bansi and Lam in the coming days, post-Kate. Australia may face its first cyclone this season. There is also some indication that another cyclone might come visiting to the Mascareignes in mid-January.

The ocean is most vigorous right now. The mighty Pacific could only throw up a weak Jangmi, in contrast the Indian Ocean is throwing out fistful of storms. Even the northern Indian Ocean gave rise to a depression 95B in mid winter. The Southern part has a energetic Cyclone Kate moving down south whipping up sustained winds of 125 kph.

The ocean has more in store for us. Two more cyclones in the coming week. Bansi and Lam. Targets? Madagascar and North-West Australia.

Cyclone Bansi will come first. It will be born as a low pressure in the Mozambique Channel, the strip of Indian Ocean between the African mainland and the island of Madagascar. It will born in the next 24 hours. It will remian an innocuous low pressure for some time  like any of the numerous "L" that bob around the ocean. But come January 4, 2015 and it will start intensifying. It will then move round southern Madagascar (An intelligent storm???) and enter South West Indian Ocean proper. And intensify into Tropical Cyclone Bansi by January 8. Bansi will be a storm with a central pressure of 994 Mb, something like Kate. It is not expected to move north towards Reunion or Mauritius but move south into the powerful westerlies.

Cyclone Lam  This will be born off the coast of North-West Australia (Near Broome) on January 4, 2015. It will then toddle around in that part of south east Indian ocean, intensifying all the while. Lam is gonna be bigger than Bansi. Central Pressure of 989 Mb. This storm is going to make landfall near the Australian town of Exmouth and Barrow Island on January 10, 2014.

It is still early days. So one can hardly be certain of the intensity and path the upcoming cyclone is gonna take.

Parting Tidbit

Around January 14, 2015, Mauritius and La Reunion may have a tropical cyclone as an unwanted guest. If early model forecasts available with XWF-WEATHER are to be believed this is going to be a nasty storm which will come over from northern Madagascar. May be 'Chedza' will follow 'Bansi' soon this January.

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE '2S' Update: NOVEMBER 29, 2014: 500 Kms From Mauritius: Will Intensify Into A 75-90 Kmph Storm Tonight

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

CYCLONE '2S' UPDATE: NOVEMBER 29, 2014

The cyclone is 500 Kms NE of Mauritius now. (0200 Hrs GMT). Wind speed is 62 Kmph. Tonight (Mauritius time) it will intensify to winds of 75-90 Kmph. It will change direction and move between Mauritius and Rodigues Island.

The good news is that since the cyclone will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island the wind impact on these two island will be less. Tomorrow early morning Mauritius will have winds of 45-55 Kmph. Rodigues will be harder hit. Winds of 55 Kmph gusts up to 60 Kmph.

Compared to Mauritius, Rodigues will experience heavier rainfall.

It is unfortunate that the MMS is not calling the cyclone a cyclone just because of irrelevant technicalities. The JTWC has name it a cyclone, the MMS should follow suit, so that the people understand the gravity of the storm.

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YESTERDAY

NOAA has declared the storm a "Topical Cyclone Two". According to its observations the storm had wind speed of 65+ Kmph at 1200 Hrs GMT today. 

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28. 2014

The depression is 550 Kms North-East of Mauritius now. 0445 Hours GMT. Wind speeds of 55 Kmph. A deep depression is what met guys call it. Just a step away from a cyclone. Forecasts say it will intensify in a few hours. It will throw winds up to 70-80 Kmph. Technically it should be named a cyclone (Bansi) then. But if the MMS folks are as stingy as the Indian Met guys in naming storms, it will not be named.

By the time it passes Mauritius (It will pass from the east  about 50-100 Kms) on Sunday late evening it will be weakened to a depression. Rodrigues Island will face stronger winds and heavier rainfall than Mauritius as the storm will pass right through the island. Mauritius will have intermittent showers till Tuesday. Rodrigues will see heavy precipitation.

STORM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 0600 HRS GMT TODAY. WINDS OF 45-75 KMPH

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SPECIAL UPDATE November 27

The JTWC has taken cognizance of the storm. it says the possibility of it turning into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression lies about 850 kms NE of Mauritius. Winds are 55 kmph. Location: 13.2 S, 66.2 E at 0000 hours GMT today. There is no significant change as to its future course from the earlier update.

It's location now is 13.58 S, 64.91 E (0400 Hrs GMT). That is about 800 kms NE of Mauritius.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0300 HOURS (GMT)

SPECIAL UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Latest model forecasts indicate that the depression that lies about 1000 NE of Mauritius is going to intensify more than expected. It is already throwing winds of 55 kmph to 65 knph. By Friday this will rise to 75-85 kmph. The threshold for the Met guys at Mauritius is 65 kmph to name it "Bansi". Let us see when they do the christening. My suspicion is even the JTWC folks will jump in soon.

The storm will not intensify very much. It will weaken by the time its winds start lashing Mauritius by Friday night. Anyway there is going to be a lot of rainfall in the island till December 2, 2014. And winds of course. There may be wind gusts of 65 kmph.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The depression lay at Latitude 12 South, longitude 68.9 East at 0000 Hrs, GMT today. It has average winds of 55 Kmph gusting up to 65 Kmph. In the next few days it will move towards Mauritius. Latest forecasts say it is unlikely to intensify any further. Looks like the Met guys at MMC are not going to christen it "Bansi". The system will reach Mauritius shores on Saturday.

IR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT , NOV 26, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

There is a large swirling mass of clouds in the Indian Ocean below Diego Garcia Islands. Only the environment is not very favourable for it to transform into a big storm. Nevertheless, the system sustains. Presently it lies at 9.9 degrees south latitude,  70.3 degrees east longitude with winds of 45 Kmph gusting up to 55 Kmph. It is a depression now and lies 400 Kms SSW of the British Indian Ocean islands. It has moved westward in the last 24 hours. . Over the next few days it will move SW towards Mauritius. It will rapidly intensify into a 75-90 Kmph cyclone on November 30, near Mauritius. Very heavy rains are likely in Mauritius in November end. About 10 inches.

Nov 25, 0600 GMT:  has remained more or less stationary. Wind speeds have reached 55 Kmph. Location: Latitude: 10.3 S, Longitude: 70.3 E

An Infra-Red Image of the system taken today at 0400 hours GMT

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LATEST UPDATE NOV 24, 2014

CYCLONE "BANSI" WILL HIT MAURITIUS ON NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 1, 2014 WITH 80-100 KMPH WINDS

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: DECEMBER 1, 2014: MAURITIUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER DEPRESSION WHILE CYCLONE BANSI IS APPROACHING.

The Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka extending till Indonesia is in ferment. Very unstable atmosphere. Out of this turbulence three storms are going to emerge. One will move to south India and Sri Lanka and give these areas a thorough drenching. The other two will move into southern Indian Ocean.

We have been talking of cyclone Bansi for a while now. The low pressure has already formed. It lies 250 Kms SSE of British Indian Ocean Islands throwing up winds of 35 Kmph.

This system will intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours and move towards Mauritius. Chances are the depression will not intensify into cyclone strength. It will affect Mauritius and Reunion Islands on November 28, 2014. Winds will be 50-60 Kmph. A borderline case between a cyclone and a depression.

WHAT IS NOTABLE is another system will follow this depression in its wake. That will be cyclone Bansi. A stronger storm, it will reach cyclone status on November 29, the time the earlier depression will be drenching Mauritius. Present indications are Cyclone Bansi will hit Mauritius, perhaps in early December.

SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE

LATEST CYCLONE '2S' UPDATES Storm Will Intensify Only When It Nears Mauritius

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

UPDATE: 23 NOVEMBER, 2014 (0300 AM GMT)

The storm has already formed. It lay 600 Kms ESE of Diego Garcia at  0000 Hrs, today (GMT). It is going to intensify slowly as it moves towards Mauritius but turn into a 100 Kph cyclone when it nears the islands on November 29. Another interesting thing about the storm is that it is not going to dissipate quickly. It is going to hover around Mauritius and Reunion Islands for many days, until it is destroyed by the westerlies. It will linger on for about 5-6 days even after reaching Mauritius. Continuous rainfall is expected in the islands for 5-6 days beginning November 28, 2014.

Bansi will remain a depression till it nears Mauritius on November 28-29. It will intensify into a cyclone on November 29.

BANSI EFFECT: MAURITIUS AND REUNION WILL WITNESS 100 MM OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

CYCLONE BANSI UPDATE: 22 NOVEMBER, 2014 (1200 HRS GMT)

The storm is going to be stronger than expected. When it nears the Mauritius coast it will have wind speeds of 75-95 Kph on November 28, 2014. And contrary to earlier predictions the storm will hit Mauritius head-on on November 29. It is to be seen whether it will weaken or not when it hits the island.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI ON NOVEMBER 28 HEADING TO MAURITIUS

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 22, 2014

NOAA calls it Invest 97 (SH972015). An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that weather forecasters think has potential of developing further.

Present forecasts say the low pressure area that may turn into Cyclone Bansi has already formed. It lay at latitude 7 degrees south, longitude 84.1 degrees east at 0000 hrs GMT, today about 1000 kms east of Diego Garcia. It's present wind speeds are about 30-40 Kph.

It will intensify slowly into a depression and move towards Mauritius, reaching it on November 29, 2014. The wind speeds then will be about 55-65 Kph. It will skim by Mauritius and move southwards. Rodrigues Island will be most affected.

Present position of the expected South Indian Ocean storm. November 22, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 21, 2014

Bansi will be weaker than expected. About 60-80 Kph. And all model forecasts now agree that Mauritius is safe. Bansi is not expected to affect either Mauritius or La Reunion Island. The storm will pass by these islands at a distance of a few hundred kilometers.

In two or three days the expected cyclone Bansi may be born as a low pressure area coming from Indonesia.

The storm may be coming earlier according to the latest forecasts. There is difference of opinion between the European and American model as to the intensity and track of the Cyclone Bansi.

The American model predicts the storm will be a stronger storm. It will reach speeds of 120 Kph on November 28, 2014. And it will move due south bypassing Mauritius and La Reunion Islands. It will dissipate on November 30 or December 1 after it will locks horns with the powerful westerlies. The storm is going to travel hundreds of kilometers in the Indian Ocean before it will die. Bansi will be a much larger storm than Adjali.

The European model, which I guess the Meteo France prediction will be based on, says the storm will hit Mauritius and La Reunion almost head-on on November 29, 2014. But by that time it will have weakened quite a lot. Winds of say 50-60 Kph. Even this model agrees that the low pressure that will transform into Cyclone Bansi will come from the waters of Indonesia. It predicts the storm will be born on Monday. November 24, 2014.

There is quite a difference in forecasts between different models in the track of the upcoming storm.. Let us see what the venerable JTWC says on Monday.

LATEST UPDATES: After Adjali, Cyclone BANSI. To Form November 25, 2014 In South Indian Ocean

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI AS SEEN ON NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The South Indian Ocean seems to be on over drive. Just as cyclone Adjali peters out another storm, BANSI, is going to form.

Bansi will form near the British Diego Garcia Islands. It will attain storm status on November 26, 2014. That is it will be christened Bansi. This cyclone is going to go a long long way deep south into the Indian ocean. A journey of thousand of kms and of almost a week.

A few days we have been warning of the possibility of cyclone Bansi, but we could not say for sure as the forecast was not backed up more models. But now it is confirmed. Cyclone Bansi is coming howling into the vast south Indian ocean.

The European model had hinted at the possibility many days back. Many of you had asked if we were sure. But we had clearly stated the position as it was then. But latest forecasts by the GFS confirms  the cyclone.

The genesis of the storm lies in the disturbed area of the Indian Ocean that lies NE of the present storm Adjali. From that will be born Cyclone Bansi.

Bansi is not going to be a super cyclone. Far from it. But it is going to generate winds of 120+ Kph. At least that is what we can say now. It is early days and it is difficult to say much of the intensity right now.

What we can say with certainty is that Bansi is going to bigger than Adjali, with a greater diameter. And it will have more staying power. It is going to travel hundreds of kilometers and brave the disrupting westerlies blowing below the African continent.

Bansi will intensify rapidly and be the strongest on November 26, 2014. It is going to move south for the next one week before dissipating owing to the strong westerlies. The GFS says it will pass by Mauritius and La Reunion a few hundred kilometers away on November 29, Saturday and move on southward. It will then intensify again then and move southwards before dissipating in the first week of December.

The European model says the storm will weaken but head towards Mauritius, reaching it by November 29, 2014.

What is notable of Bansi is that it is going to brave the powerful disrupting Westerlies, the dropping sea temperature as it moves south and carry on till early December, piercing through the Westerlies. A storm with stamina.

Latest Update: November 20, 2014

Major forecast models agree that Bansi is not going to hit Hit Mauritius or La Reunion but move pass them a few hundred kilometers away and go south. Latest forecasts also say Bansi is going to be a 100 Kph storm but will travel a long way. It will have a larger diameter than Adjali.

It will be strongest when it passes Mauritius on November 27. (75-90 Kph). The lowest central pressure of the cyclone will be 993. So not a very powerful storm. It will disintegrate on December 1-2, 2014 when the westerlies tear it apart.

TRACK OF UPCOMING CYCLONE "BANSI"

Bansi is going to be a large storm. This prediction map shows Bansi moving south on November 27