LATEST UPDATES: After Adjali, Cyclone BANSI. To Form November 25, 2014 In South Indian Ocean

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI AS SEEN ON NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The South Indian Ocean seems to be on over drive. Just as cyclone Adjali peters out another storm, BANSI, is going to form.

Bansi will form near the British Diego Garcia Islands. It will attain storm status on November 26, 2014. That is it will be christened Bansi. This cyclone is going to go a long long way deep south into the Indian ocean. A journey of thousand of kms and of almost a week.

A few days we have been warning of the possibility of cyclone Bansi, but we could not say for sure as the forecast was not backed up more models. But now it is confirmed. Cyclone Bansi is coming howling into the vast south Indian ocean.

The European model had hinted at the possibility many days back. Many of you had asked if we were sure. But we had clearly stated the position as it was then. But latest forecasts by the GFS confirms  the cyclone.

The genesis of the storm lies in the disturbed area of the Indian Ocean that lies NE of the present storm Adjali. From that will be born Cyclone Bansi.

Bansi is not going to be a super cyclone. Far from it. But it is going to generate winds of 120+ Kph. At least that is what we can say now. It is early days and it is difficult to say much of the intensity right now.

What we can say with certainty is that Bansi is going to bigger than Adjali, with a greater diameter. And it will have more staying power. It is going to travel hundreds of kilometers and brave the disrupting westerlies blowing below the African continent.

Bansi will intensify rapidly and be the strongest on November 26, 2014. It is going to move south for the next one week before dissipating owing to the strong westerlies. The GFS says it will pass by Mauritius and La Reunion a few hundred kilometers away on November 29, Saturday and move on southward. It will then intensify again then and move southwards before dissipating in the first week of December.

The European model says the storm will weaken but head towards Mauritius, reaching it by November 29, 2014.

What is notable of Bansi is that it is going to brave the powerful disrupting Westerlies, the dropping sea temperature as it moves south and carry on till early December, piercing through the Westerlies. A storm with stamina.

Latest Update: November 20, 2014

Major forecast models agree that Bansi is not going to hit Hit Mauritius or La Reunion but move pass them a few hundred kilometers away and go south. Latest forecasts also say Bansi is going to be a 100 Kph storm but will travel a long way. It will have a larger diameter than Adjali.

It will be strongest when it passes Mauritius on November 27. (75-90 Kph). The lowest central pressure of the cyclone will be 993. So not a very powerful storm. It will disintegrate on December 1-2, 2014 when the westerlies tear it apart.

TRACK OF UPCOMING CYCLONE "BANSI"

Bansi is going to be a large storm. This prediction map shows Bansi moving south on November 27