 |
| Xtreme Weather Prediction Map: Tropical storm "Mahasen" on May 12, 2013 |
Very heavy rains are expected at coastal Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal and Bangladesh from May 12 to May 16, 2013 because of Mahasen
Mahasen after forming east of the Sri Lankan coast on May 8 or May 9 will then move in a NWN direction and touch Andhra on May 13. It will grow in strength all time.
Another forecast model says that Mahasen will make landfall at Chennai on May 11, 2013. It also says that it will not be as powerful a storm as predicted by the former model.
All models agree that the Indian east coast, Bangladesh and Indian NE states are in for very heavy precipitation till May 16, 2013.
Talking of the Arabian Sea, forecast models say there is going to be a heavy build-up of clouds in southern Arabian Sea around the 20th of May. Experience tells us that such cloud build-up in the seas usually spawns a storm. A cyclone in the Arabian Sea in the end of May? Who knows?
8 comments:
its really hard to tell what next ?
Mahasen is coming. There is no doubt about that. All major forecast models say that. One says that the target will be Visakhapatnam, on May 13, 2013. Another forecast model says Mahasen will hit Chennai, on May 11, 2013.
And, how about its intensity.. similar to THANE or NILAM category storm ?
Prediction of a cyclone direction will be always challenging. However Mother Nature has the tendency to repeat the weather patterns in regular intervals (for example like El-nino, La-nino, ENSO neutral, North Atlantic oscillation, Indian ocean dipole etc.). So we can be able to predict near accuracy by synchronizing/comparing the already existing past data with the present and (future forecasted data) on certain weather parameters.
For example we can near accurately predict in the case of future coming north indian ocean/bay of bengal cyclone i.e. Mahasen to cross Andhra Pradesh only after comparing the data regarding (a) southern oscillation index (SOI), (b) madden Julian oscillation index (MJO), (c) nino3 sea surface temperature anomaly, (d) indian ocean dipole and (e) other known/unknown parameters with past Andhra Pradesh’s crossed cyclones.
The favorable values for above parameters (a) (b) and (c) to be in the following limits to cross any cyclones/monsoon depressions at Andhra Pradesh coast.
(a) Sothern Oscillation index (SOI): –5 to +5
(b) Madden Julian oscillation index: 2, 3 and 4 enhanced/suppressed phases
(c) Nino3 temperature anomaly to be neutral/zero or negative
Examples:
1. 1977, November 14-19 Andhra Pradesh super cyclone: (a) SOI is within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index has enhanced 3 phase (c) nino3 has negative value
2. 1990, may 4-9 Andhra Pradesh super cyclone: (a) SOI is within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index has enhanced 3 phase (c) nino3 has negative value
3. 2010, may 17-20 Andhra Pradesh severe cyclonic storm ‘Laila’: (a) SOI is within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index has suppressed 4 phase (c) nino3 has negative value
‘Mahasen’ super cyclone forecast for Andhra Pradesh:
2013, may 8-15 Andhra Pradesh super cyclonic storm ‘Mahasen’: (a) SOI will be within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index will be in enhanced 2 or 3 phase (c) nino3 will have negative value
Note 1: 2010, may 17-20 ‘Laila’ has not become super cyclone due to MJO index is in suppressed 4 phase. However ‘Mahasen’ will attain super cyclonic strength due to favorable energetic 2 or 3 phase enhanced MJO index before crossing Andhra Pradesh coast.
Note 2: This prediction may vary due to nature’s complex 3D weather mechanisms.
Yes, the intensity of MAHASEN will be as that of NILAM (If not more).
Any idea about approx. wind speeds?
The wind speeds are expected to peak at 50 to 60 knots. That is around 100 Kmph. In the US they would call it a category 1 typhoon.
Is it gona pass by muscat?
Post a Comment