A TROPICAL STORM ("PHAILIN"?) TO HIT OMAN ON MAY 27, 2013

We had predicted two days ago (May 11) that the Arabian Sea was now going to churn out a cyclone in the next ten days. Forecasts are consistently supporting this forecast so we felt impelled (we have been getting many queries) to write these lines today.

Yes,  a storm (PHAILIN?) is likely to form in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast on the 21st of May, 2013. It will then move more or less in a NW direction in the coming days. It will strengthen all the time and move towards Oman. It is likely to hit Oman on May 27, 2013.

It is too early to say about the size of the tropical storm but indications are that PHAILIN will be a big tropical storm. And it will bring lots of rains to Oman from May 27.

We will keep updating you with the latest forecasts about the possible tropical storm in the coming days.

RAIN PREDICTION MAP: MAY 21 TO MAY 27, 2013: OWING TO  EXPECTED ARABIAN SEA STORM

MAY 5, 2013: CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE: Ground Zero: Visakhapatnam, Andhra May 13, 2013

Xtreme Weather Prediction Map: Tropical storm "Mahasen" on May 12, 2013

Cyclone Mahasen which is expected to be formed in the southern Bay of Bengal on May 8, 2013 is likely to make landfall at Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh on May 13, 2013. After touching the Andhra coast Mahasen will skim over the Orissa, West Bengal coast weakening all the time.

Very heavy rains are expected at coastal Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal and Bangladesh from May 12 to May 16, 2013 because of Mahasen

Mahasen after forming east of the Sri Lankan coast on May 8 or May 9 will then move in a NWN direction and touch Andhra on May 13. It will grow in strength all time.

Another forecast model says that Mahasen will make landfall at Chennai on May 11, 2013. It also says that it will not be as powerful a storm as predicted by the former model.

All models agree that the Indian east coast, Bangladesh and Indian NE states are in for very heavy precipitation till May 16, 2013.

Talking of the Arabian Sea, forecast models say there is going to be a heavy build-up of clouds in southern Arabian Sea around the 20th of May. Experience tells us that such cloud build-up in the seas usually spawns a storm. A cyclone in the Arabian Sea in the end of May? Who knows?

MAY 4, 2013 TROPICAL MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE : Big Cyclone To Hit Tamil Coast May 11, 2013

Mother Nature seems to have made up its mind. It is going to vent its fury in the form of tropical cyclone Mahasen. And Tamil Nadu is going to bear the brunt of the fury.

Todays forecasts say Mahasen is gonna be a big big bad boy. May be a super cyclone.

Birth date? May 8, 2013. Landfall? Tamil Nadu coast south of Puducherry on the 11th of May, 2013.

Predicted path of Cyclone Mahasen: May 8 to May 11, 2013

MAY 3, 2013 CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE : To Form Bay Of Bengal Around May 10, 2013. Target Tamil Nadu

Prediction map: Cyclone Mahasen on May 10, 2013

It is now confirmed. Almost all forecast models say that something is brewing in the Indian Ocean south of the Sri Lankan coast.

Some models are more sanguine. They say a depression will form east of Sri Lanka in the Bay of Bengal move eastward, drench Sri Lanka and kiss the southern most tip of India and move over into the Arabian Sea. Then turn into a cyclone in the Arabian Sea? May be.

Prediction Map:  May 7 to May 10 2013: The other model says no Mahasen. Just a depression which will travel from Bay of Bengal to Arabian Sea

Other forecasts, which we tend to trust say that a nasty cyclone which will be christened Mahasen once it grows up into a big bad boy, is going to form in the Bay of Bengal around the 10th of May, 2013. Predictions say Mahasen will be hovering around in the sea a few hundred miles ESE of Batticalao. Then? Very good chance that Tamil Nadu is in for a good lashing on the 12th of May, 2013.

Predicted path of Mahasen: May 9 to May 13, 2013 (Wind speed)

Mahasen will strike the Indian coast in the Madurai-Puducherry belt on the 12th of May, 2013. Northern Sri Lanka is too in for a thrashing. Strong winds and lots of precipitation. Maybe Mahasen will make landfall further up on the Andhra-Tamil Nadu border.

The weakened cyclone will bring a deluge to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh till the 14th of May, 2013.

It is time the Sri Lankan and Indian authorities start taking precautionary steps.

Big bad Mahasen is coming.

Rain Prediction Map Because of Cyclone Mahasen (May 9 to May 15, 2013)

A Bay Of Bengal Cyclone In May 2013. Mahasen?

It is May. Time to scan the seas for storms in the North Indian Ocean. Well storm lovers in India, Pakistan and Oman will not be disappointed.

Is Cyclone Mahasen coming?

There is something in the air. There is great mass of clouds forming just south of Colombo, Sri Lanka. This mass of water vapor will slowly intensify and the system will move northwards (north-eastwards to be precise). In a week's time (around May 8, 2013) the labor pains of the birth of a tropical storm will begin.

Sat. image today. Notice the great mass of clouds?

Yes, forecast models say (and have been saying so for the last 2-3 days) that something is coming up in the North Indian Ocean. A cyclone is likely to gain shape from May 8, 2013. This storm will slowly gain strength rapidly over the next two days and turn into a tropical cyclone.

Recent updates say the cyclone will hit the Tamil Nadu coast between Ramnathpuram and Puducherry on the 11th or 12th of May 2013.

Then. Lots of rains in North Tamil Nadu, Karnataka in the next 2-3 days. The system will be so strong that even after making landfall it will bring rains in Northern Maharashtra (almost touch Mumbai) on May 17, 2013.

We are talking now with the latest forecast information we have now. It is not certain that the expected storm will strike Tamil Nadu. Earlier forecasts said that it would form in the Arabian Sea and hit Gujarat or move westwards to the Arabian peninsula.

But one thing we can say with some certainty. North Indian Ocean is going to churn out a cyclone in the next ten days.

Keep reading this site for the latest.

Predicted path of Cyclone Mahasen from May 8 to May 11, 2013