XWF-LRF: A CYCLONE (PHAILIN) MAY HIT OMAN ON JUNE 9. 2013.

XWF-LRF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: CYCLONE PHAILIN ABOUT TO HIT OMAN COAST: JUNE 9, 2013

According of our Long Range Forecasts, a cyclone (Phailin?) will strike Oman on June 9, 2013. The storm

will take shape off the Karnataka coast in India on June 6, 2013. It will then move in a NW direction, intensifying all the time and then cross the northern Oman coast  on June 9, 2013.

It will be according to XWF-LRF, a very powerful cyclone. Very strong winds and heavy rains are expected  in northern Oman on June 9, 2013.

Please note that this is a LRF and its accuracy is circumspect.

A TROPICAL STORM (PHAILIN?) TO STRIKE SOUTH OMAN ON MAY 25, 2013

The North Indian Ocean seems to throw out tropical storms by the handfuls this year. After the weak MAHASEN in the Bay of Bengal, forecasts say a new storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea.

Southern Arabian Sea has seen a mass of restless clouds since a few days. This system of rain-bearing clouds are going to spawn a storm around May 21, 2013.

GROUND ZERO: MAY 26, 2013

It will start very innocuously in the Arabian Sea, 1000 miles east of the Horn of Africa. A low pressure area will develop. This system will slowly drift NNW gaining strength gradually. Within a day or two it will churn up winds of about 40-50 kph. A depression.

This depression will keeping moving towards the south Oman coast gaining strength all the time. As it nears the coast on May 24-25, 2013, it will be cyclone strength. Winds of about 80-90 kph.

The tropical storm will hit the south Oman coast between Duqm and Sawqirah, on May 25-26, 2013, accompanied with strong winds and very heavy rains.

Since the maximum winds are forecasted to be about 80-90 kph one can safely label it a cyclone.

May be PHAILIN  cyclone is coming.

EXPECTED PATH OF ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM MAY 2013: MAY 22-MAY 26, 2013

CHANCE OF ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE "PHAILIN" THIS MAY?

Now that Cyclone Mahasen has disintegrated rapidly and moved over we can deal with a new possibility. A tropical storm in the Arabian Sea? Is PHAILIN cyclone coming this May?

Forecast models have been flashing signs of its possibility. But the problem is that prediction models do not say with certainty and in successive forecasts that the storm in the Arabian Sea is coming.

So we cannot predict with any certainty.

OMAN RAINS, MAY 30, 2013. WILL IT HAPPEN?

Yes, forecast models do say that a low pressure area will arise in the Arabian Sea off the Indian coast  near Kerala on around May 22, 2013. They further say that the system will move WNW and finally hit southern Oman on May 30, 2013 and bring very heavy rains there.

When the forecast crystallizes into something concrete, we can be sure of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea this May.

Forecasts say only a low pressure area for now. Will turn into a cyclone? Time will tell.

We will keep you informed

A TROPICAL STORM ("PHAILIN"?) TO HIT OMAN ON MAY 27, 2013

We had predicted two days ago (May 11) that the Arabian Sea was now going to churn out a cyclone in the next ten days. Forecasts are consistently supporting this forecast so we felt impelled (we have been getting many queries) to write these lines today.

Yes,  a storm (PHAILIN?) is likely to form in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast on the 21st of May, 2013. It will then move more or less in a NW direction in the coming days. It will strengthen all the time and move towards Oman. It is likely to hit Oman on May 27, 2013.

It is too early to say about the size of the tropical storm but indications are that PHAILIN will be a big tropical storm. And it will bring lots of rains to Oman from May 27.

We will keep updating you with the latest forecasts about the possible tropical storm in the coming days.

RAIN PREDICTION MAP: MAY 21 TO MAY 27, 2013: OWING TO  EXPECTED ARABIAN SEA STORM

AFTER "MAHASEN" Arabian Sea Cyclone "PHAILIN" To HIT OMAN (OR GUJARAT) On MAY 27, 2013?

Even as Cyclone Mahasen grows in strength and prepares to hit Chittagong, Bangladesh on May 15, 2013, latest forecasts say the North Indian Ocean may throw up another cyclone (Phailin) this May. The expected tropical storm may hit Oman on May 27, 2013.

Indications are that Phailin is going to be a big storm. Bigger than Mahasen. It will take form around May 21, 2013 between the Horn of Africa and the Kerala coast and head NW straight towards Oman.

Another possibility is it may strike Gujarat (India) on the 27th of May, 2013.

Either way "Phailin" is gonna be very big

Keep reading this site.

SCENARIO 1: Target Oman

Animated forecasted path of Cyclone Phailin: May 23 to May 27, 2013

SCENARIO 2: Target Gujarat

Alternate scenario: Phailin may hit Gujarat. Projected path of Cyclone Phailin May 23 to May 27, 2013

What You Did Not Know......Phail In is a Thai girl name. The meaning of the name is `Sapphire `