Two Cyclones, Lam And Marcia Slam Into Australia In One Day

As we speak Tropical Cyclone Lam is battering Wessel islands and about to make landfall into Arnhem land in northern Australia. A few hours later another tropical storm Marcia will move into Rockhampton in Queensland.

CYCLONES LAM AND MARCIA MOVING INTO AUSTRALIA ON FEBRUARY 19, 2015

It happens rarely. That in a single day two tropical storms ram into a country. It is happening in Australia today. Cyclone Lam is about to make landfall into Arnhem land in the Northern territory. At about 1200 hours GMT today another tropical storm Marcia will hit Rockhampton on the coast of eastern Australia.

Of the two Lam is the tougher customer. The coast of Northern territory can expect winds of about 140-160 kph in the next 24 hours. But within  72 hours the storm will have dissipated. But expect heavy rainfall in Arnhem land in the next 48 hours.

Marcia is a weaker storm by comparision but even then Rockhampton can expect gusts of 80 kph today. The storm will weaken as it moves inland but will prove to be a great rain-maker. In the next 48 hours heavy rains are expected in south-eastern Queensland and the coast of north-eastern New South wales. Brisbane will receive heavy showers on February 21, 2015.

TRACK FORECAST OF CYCLONE LAM

TRACK FORECAST OF TROPICAL STORM MARCIA

Tropical Cyclone Threat In South Pacific: Solomon, Vanuatu And New Caledonia Targets

January 6, 2015

Just as a storm is brewing near the  northern Australian coast, a tropical cyclone is about to be born near the Solomon Islands in South Pacific. It will remain a tropical depression as it crosses the islands but will intensify into a cyclone on January 11, 2015. It will then move south in the Pacific ocean and affect Vanuatu and New Caledonia Islands on January 13.

Another Tropical Depression is likely to move into the Philippines on January 15, 2015. Bad news to a country already reeling from floods from storm Jangmi.

Forecast Models Say Mauritius Faces Real Threat Of A Cyclone In A Few Days January 2015

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates on Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

January 5, 2015

Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.

We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.

GFS

A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.

Special GFS

The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.

European Model

The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.

Canadian CMC

The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.

NAVGEM

The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.

Update: January 6, 2015

Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY: January 3, 2015: Cyclone Lam And Linda Imminent In Australia Around January 10, 2015

Update: January 3, 2015

Upcoming Cyclone Lam And Linda

Within 24 hours future tropical cyclone Lam will be born as a low pressure area in the Timor Sea in South-Eastern Indian Ocean. The storm will struggle to intensify into something bigger because of the unfavourable wind shear. But around January 10 it will manage to turn into a cyclone. Lam. It is expected to make landfall between Broome and Onslow in Western Australia and move right through the territory. On January 13 it will exit from the Australian land mass at Great Victorian Desert and Nullarbor Plains. The entire province of Western Australian will receive rains.

Another cyclone is expected to form almost simultaneously in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. So it hard to say which of the storms will be Lam and Linda. The one in Western Australia or the one in Queensland? Now this storm will make landfall at Karumba in Queensland. It will then  move across the province and move into Pacific Ocean on January 12 between Mackay and Rockhampton. It will then move close along the coast for a day and swing away towards New Zealand. Brisbane will get a lashing from the storm on January 13. New Zealand may face a cyclone on January 14, 2015.

It is also possible that a storm may come from Papua New Guinea and hit the Queensland coast on January 10 near Townsville.

There are many complex factors at play so being 100% certain is difficult but it is certain that a cyclone is coming Australia's way soon. When? Where? We have outlined the possibilities.

See a tropical storm developing near Australia. LIVE.

South Western Indian Ocean

Presently a depression is moving around in circles in the Mozambique Channel. It will continue doing so for a few days more without strengthening into a storm. The conditions are not favouring it. Strong wind shear is preventing it to move away from its present area. So it is zigzagging around bringing lots of rains in coastal Mozambique and Madagascar.

Come January 14, 2015 and the South Western Indian Ocean may throw up two cyclones. One in the Mozambique Channel and one near Mascarene Islands. The former will make landfall into Mozambique around January 17-18. At the same time the second storm will move through Rodrigues Island and then move further south. So Rodrigues Island is in for a direct hit. Mauritius and La Reunion will feel the periphery of the cyclone.

Seems like Cyclones Bansi and Chedza are coming calling in mid January, 2015.

December 31, 2014: XWF-WEATHER Forecast Summary

Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal is in its death throes. Within the next 36 hours it will dissipate. But weather will be overcast and windy in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh till then. Some showers expected in these areas.

Tropical Storm Jangmi has weakened into a depression as it heads to Palawan. For the next few days it will move towards southern Thailand (And northern Malaysia) and bring rains there. Just that. Rains.

Australia is staring at a big cyclone in early January, 2015. North and Western coasts of the country. Cyclone Lam is imminent.

In south west Indian Ocean two tropical cyclones seem likely. First will affect southern Madagascar. The second will hit Mauritius and La Reunion around January 12, 2015.

Bay Of Bengal Storm: December 2014: Perhaps A Cyclone Is Coming.

Update: December 26, 2014

Seems like a cyclone is imminent in the Bay of Bengal. Earlier forecasts by leading weather models had said the system would at best be a deep depression. We too were sceptical about a cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal in mid winter. But latest forecasts say other wise. May be we are staring at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours. Climate change? Perhaps.

It is generally agreed by reliable forecast models that the system 95B that hovers presently near Sri Lanka will intensify on December 29-30 into a tropical cyclone. In the next few days the storm is going to go around in a circle. Go south first then curve east, then north then westwards towards the coast of Tamil Nadu. At that point on December 30, 2014, it will intensify into a cyclone. The central minimum pressure (Which is an indicator of how strong a storm is: Hurricane Wilma had a central pressure of 882 mb) will drop into the 990s from the 1002-1004 mb levels.

After that opinions differ. The GFS says it will  travel a few hundred kilometers from the Indian east coast and head to Bangladesh. The European model agrees more or less, only it says it will be a weaker storm. The US Navy's NAVGEM Model is the most bullish on 95B. It gives a central pressure of 993 and the strongest wind speeds. It says the cyclone will move in the Bay of Bengal and hit Andhra coast on December 31, 2014.

It seems Mother Earth wants to start the new year with a bang.

Whatever happens the expected tropical storm is not going to be in the league of Phailin, Hudhud or even Nilofar. One can hardly expect a super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in December. But it might throw out winds of around 80 kph or more. And of course it is going to be a rain-maker. Depends on how it goes. Sri Lanka is getting a deluge right now because of 95B.

In conclusion, we feel system 95B will turn into a tropical cyclone in the next three days, when it is near the coast of Tamil Nadu, but it will start weakening as it ascends the latitudes and experiences the colder waters of the Bay. The moot point is will the IMD christen the storm when it is at its strongest on December 29-30 or will 95B remain an unnamed "deep depression"?

A latest satellite image of 95B taken at 0500 hours GMT, December 26, 2014. (Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The latest track path forecast of Storm 95B. The yellow line is the path prediction by the Canadian GEM Model. The other two are the forecasts by GFS and US Navy's NAVGEM Models.

This chart predicts the intensity of Storm 95B. The forecast is by AVNO, an offshoot of the GFS Model. The expected wind speeds are given in Knots. I knot = 1.85 kilometers per hour (Kph). The chart says the system will turn into a cyclone after 72 hours when its winds will exceed 64 kph.

The IMD remains bearish on chances of a cyclone. It seems we will have to be satisfied with a "deep depression".

Rainfall Prediction Map: How much rain is Storm 95B (Ashobaa?) going to bring and where in the next 8 days?

Storm Forms Off Sri Lankan Coast: Cyclone Ashobaa?

A low pressure has formed 200 kilometers SSE from the Sri Lankan coast (4.6 N Latitude, 82.6 E Longitude) that has NOAA raising its ears and start tracking it. NOAA calls it 95B. The stretch of south Bay of Bengal from Sri Lanka to the Indian Andaman Islands has been very turbulent since the last few days. There have been frequent downpours in Sri Lanka leading to floods.

Now the turbulent weather is crystallizing into a storm. Earlier we had predicted a depression, but now it seems a cyclone is in the offing. A very large diameter cyclone. Not very windy as compared to the formidable Phailin and Hudhud but a big trouble-maker.

Yeah. Chances are this storm that hovers south of Sri Lanka is going to metamorphose into cyclone Ashobaa. The eye of the storm will become visible on December 28, 2014. And sustained winds will cross the threshold of 64 kph (To be termed a cyclone). But one doubts whether the Indian Met Department will christen it "Ashobaa". One has observed that the esteemed met dept, unlike the Americans and Australians, is very reluctant in christening storms. They prefer the term deep depression which need not be named.

We feel the current storm is going to qualify enough to be 'promoted' to a cyclone. But the venerable IMD has the powers....

Anyway... The cyclone is expected to move north along the coast of India and reach Bangladesh on January 2, 2015. So expect windy and wet weather along the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal. Sri Lanka, of course, is in for more precipitation in the coming days.

The heaviest rains will be coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh.

But we should keep one thing in mind. This is not June or September-October. This is mid-winter. The end of the month of December. So the waters of the Bay of Bengal are going to colder as we ascend the latitudes. So the cyclone, if it forms, is going to be strongest when it will be in the warm waters of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. As it moves further north it will start weakening. The storm will be strongest on December 29, 2014. Then the decline will start.

We feel it will be best, a deep depression, A big rain-maker, but no cyclone.

We shall continuously monitor the upcoming storm and give you the latest updates.

See the Bay of Bengal (December 2014) depression LIVE.

See Rain Forecast Maps For South Asia for the rainfall owing to the upcoming depression.

Live animated water vapor satellite images of Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal

The forecast track path of 95B in the Bay of Bengal

Cyclone CEMPAKA To Form Off Indonesia.Cyclone NUTE Forming In South Pacific. Depression Heading To Indian East Coast.

Update: December 23, 2014

The oceans are getting restive again, eager to restore the balance (That is why storms form; to restore atmospheric balance). Tropical Cyclone Cempaka is likely to form on December 26, 2014. The South Pacific will throw up a storm. Cyclone Nute is forming right now, north of Vanuatu Island. And a depression will form near the Indian Andaman Islands and move to the Indian east coast.

Let us start with Cyclone Nute. The storm is a low pressure now and lay at 14.1 Degrees South and 159.9 Degrees West with winds of 35 kph. It presently lies about 1000 kms east of American Samoa Island. It is already intensifying and is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours and move in a SW direction. The only inhabited islands to be affected are French Polynesia and Cook Island.

By the way, the same area in the South Pacific is going to spew another storm (Cyclone Odile) in another 2-3 days. This storm will hit the American Samoa Islands.

Now for cyclone Cempaka. It will be born south of the area where the short-lived Bakung was born; Off the coast of Java. It lies as an "invest" (An area of disturbances where a meteorologist thinks a storm will develop) at 9.7 degrees South, and 100.4 degrees East. Come December 26, 2014 and it may develop into cyclone Cempaka. Now this storm is going to go straight into the Indian Ocean. No inhabited islands are around so only the sipping lanes will be affected. The storm will dissipate on December 29.

Deep Depression In Bay Of Bengal

And now the rain-maker depression which is going to drench the Indian east coast. The storm will form near the Central Andaman Islands and head west on December 24, 2014, that is tomorrow. It will reach Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu on December 28, 2014. When it nears the land masses it will swerve away and move along the Indian coast in the Bay of Bengal in the next 2-3 days. So rains are expected along the entire Indian east coast. That includes the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal. It is going to bring rains even to Bangladesh. So expect rains in all these areas by the end of the month (And year). Only the coastal areas will receive the rains.

There is a possibility that this depression might reach cyclone status when it coasts pass Tamil Nadu.

Another Typhoon In Philippines?

There is good chance that another typhoon is heading Philippines' way. A storm is brewing in the Pacific, a few hundred kilometres east of Philippines now. It will move west and is likely to make landfall in southern part of the country on December 27' 2014. We feel it might not reach tropical cyclone strength and will remain a deep depression. Lots of rains and very windy in Mindanao on December 27-28. Or will turn into typhoon Jangmi?

Cyclone BAKUNG Has Formed Off Sumatra In Southern Indian Ocean

Update: December 12, 2014: CYCLONE BAKUNG IS INTENSIFYING NOW

Bansi is Bakung. The cyclone was born in Indonesia's area of meteorological influence, hence it go the honors to do the christening. But it is likely that this cyclone will recognise no bureaucratic areas of influence and may head to Mascareignes after a long long journey (ala Hagupit which traveled for 12 days). Right now cyclone Bakung is intensifying in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. By December 15 it will be a 100+ kph storm.

Its future is uncertain. It may head straight south to commit suicide fighting the mighty Westerlies. Or it might take a SW course and reach the Mascareignes after a long journey. Some say it will be a big storm, central pressure of 979. Others say it will trudge along as a depression. Most track forecasts only go uptil 5 days. Bakung seems to have everybody confused and divided.

See "Bakung" Track Forecast

The forecasts differ because they have different estimates of wind shear that Bakung is going to face. The GFS forecasts a high shear so it says the storm will not go far or will not intensify much. The other models give it a more favourable conditions, so it will flourish and go far.

For folks in the Mascareignes, where the local met departments follow the European Forecast Model, there is bad news. The ECMWF (The European Model) predicts Bakung is going to come hunting in your waters as a big bad storm. Especially vulnerable is Rodrigues Island whom Cyclone Bakung might affect after December 23, 2014.

It is a storm to watch. It is going to travel a long distance.

Update: December 10, 2014

Future storm Bansi is very much on. NOAA has started monitoring the system labeled "90S". Presently it lies a few hundred kms off Sumatra, In the coming days it is going to travel a long way heading south into the Indian Ocean. In a few days it will turn into a cyclone. Most forecasts say it will be quite a storm with a central pressure of 973. After December 16 it will intensify rapidly. It is not going to affect any land mass. Mascareignes is safe.

December 9, 2014
Update: December 11, 2014
Even the JTWC has taken note of 90S. Its present winds are about 40 kph. The JTWC believes it may turn into a significant tropical storm in the next 24 hours. The various models have different forecasts. Some predict it will be quite a storm with a pressure of 973, other say 985 mb. The tracks also differ wildly. Some say it will go south. Others say it will dissipate after a few days (Or remain a depression).

But this future storm is worth watching. It has forecast models confused. So had Hagupit a few days earlier.

Update: December 9, 2014
Yeah! Forecasts say our man cyclone Bansi is back! It is going to form in the next few days off the coast of Indonesia and then slowly intensify and travel a long way passing by Rodrigues Island on December 23, 2014. Presently it is a low pressure area just off Sumatra Island. (See It LIVE)

This storm has sent us on a wild goose chase. A few days ago the depression in the southern Indian Ocean failed to make it to cyclone grade and be named Bansi.

But if latest forecasts are to be believed Bansi is coming as a big bad storm! Not a super cyclone but a  big storm with a respectable central pressure of 973 Mb.

The formation of Bansi is corroborated by three forecast models, only the intensities vary.

Keep in touch for latest news of Bansi's antics.

See "Bansi" Live

Forecast Map: Cyclone Bansi on December 16, 2014

The Expected System Will At Best Be A Depression:Heay Rains Likely In Philippines, Vietnam In Next 15 Days

Update: December 10, 2014

The  system (96W) that has formed in the Pacific near Palau Island will not intensify into a significant tropical storm. It is likely to remain a low pressure area or a depression.

Update: December 9, 2014

There is another tropical storm coming  to Philippines. On December 13, 2014.

NOAA has taken note of this imminent storm. It calls it 96W (See Track). Presently it lies about 1100 kms ESE of Palau in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm JANGMI will form on December 11, and move to Philippines intensifying as it does so. It will move through central Philippines from December 13-14 and then enter the South China Sea. When it travels across the country the winds will be in excess of 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. For a country that is reeling under the impact of super typhoon Hagupit, this is bad news.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify again in the warm  South China Sea and go on to hit central Vietnam (almost the same area where Hagupit is going to impact on Thursday) on December 15, 2014, Monday.

In short, it is double whammy for Vietnam in the coming few days.

Read: Hagupit Threat to Vietnam

UPDATE: December 8, 2014

Later forecasts have predicted that the chances of a significant tropical storm forming in the next one week in western Pacific are remote. Hence Jangmi will not form now.

But Hagupit is coming to Vietnam on December 12 morning (Vietnam Time). A minor storm with winds of 65-85 kph.

UPDATE: December 7, 2014

Hagupit Will Intensify again a little as it enters the South China Sea on Tuesday. It will hit south Vietnam on December 11, 2014, albeit as a weak storm. Another smaller typhoon JANGMI will follow Hagupit in a few days.

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph.

The formation of Jangmi is supported by the GFS and Gem models. It will be a depression when it enters central Philippines on December 14, 2014. But once it enters the South China Sea, it will gain typhoon status and go on to hit Vietnam on December 16-17.

December 14, 2014: Tropical Storm JANGMI En Route To Vietnam

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 2014: LATEST CONTINUOUS UPDATES: Is Intensifying Before It Moves Into Vietnam Late Night

HAGUPIT IS INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM
Update: 0500 HRS GMT, December 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is intensifying now.
Right now it is spewing winds of 70 kph. Presently it lies about 500 kms east of central Vietnam. Contrary to what the JTWC predicts, this storm is intensifying again. It will grow stronger till it hits the Vietnamese coast early hours of Friday (Vietnam Time). At landfall the winds will be about 80-90 kph. Heavy rains are likely in central Vietnam in the next two days. (See Forecast map on right).

In fact, central Vietnam is going to see a lot of rain in the coming 10-12 days. First Hagupit and then another depression that will move in after a week. Parts of central Vietnam will face up to 25 inches of rain. Flooding, perhaps?

See the storm LIVE
See Rain Forecast Maps

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DO NOT WRITE OFF HAGUPIT...YET
Update: 0600 HRS GMT, December 10, 2014

The JTWC had almost washed its hands off Hagupit. Until it intensified again. Presently it lies about 700 kms east of central Vietnam and is throwing out winds of 75 kph.  By tomorrow evening (Vietnam Time) it will make landfall at either Binh Thuan or Ninh Thuan province. Though winds will be sub-cyclone speeds it will be still 55 kph, gusts up to 75 kph. heavy rains are expected in central and southern Vietnam.

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WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN IN NEXT 12 HOURS
Update: 0630 Hours GMT. December 9, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is going to intensify again. 

Hagupit is going to intensify in the coming 12 hours. It may weaken a bit after that but by the time it hits central Vietnam on Thursday night (Vietnam Time) it will be throwing winds of 90 kph. Some other forecasts even hint at the possibility of it going through Vietnam, Thailand and reaching the Indian coast as a depression. Phew! A long way to travel.

See Hagupit Track

But Vietnam is facing a cyclone threat in the coming 72 hours, is certain.

There is a strong possibility that the country may be hit by another tropical storm (JANGMI) on December 15-16. But that is dealt with elsewhere.

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HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE STARTED IN MANILA
Update: 1330  hours GMT, December 8, 2014

The winds are dropping all the time. In fact it is hardly windy in Manila city. The eastern coast of Luzon has strong winds of 75 kph. But it is raining hard in many parts of Luzon. Next 12 hours will see very heavy rains in Manila and Quezon City

It rained heavily in Batangas, Lucena, Tayabas city in the last one hour. It rained heavily in Mindoro  a few hours ago. The rains are shifting north now.

The storm is over Lucena now, 120 kms south-east of Manila City. In a few hours it will pass closest from the city between Calamba and Lipa. Another 6 hours after that and it will leave Filipino shores.

The worry of flooding in Manila is real.The memories of the flood of  September 28, 2009 are still fresh. The heavy rains caused by typhoon Ketsana led to inundation of the metro and 246 people had died. Four-fifths of the city had been submerged under water. Thousands had been displaced.

See animated satellite images of its recent movement HERE
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HEAVY RAINS IN MANILA TODAY
Update: 0330 Hours, GMT, December 8, 2013

The storm is weakening all the time as it moves over the Philippines land mass, Winds have dropped to 100 kph, but the rains continue. Manila is for a thorough drenching in the next 24 hours. The areas of southern Luzon and southern Tagalog (Mindoro) will get the maximum rains.

Hagupit knocking on Manila's door

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RAINS STILL A THREAT
Update: 1400 Hrs GMT, December 7, 2013

The winds are dropping all the time but the JTWC predicts that tomorrow night (Philippines Time) when Hagupit will be passing south of Manila the winds will still be about 120 kph. Presently the storm is near Masbate city with winds of 140 kph. The problem is not the winds but that the slow moving storm is dumping lots of rain on the country. It is going to take 36 hours before it exits Philippines shores.

By the time it reaches southern Vietnam on December 12, it will be below tropical storm strength, just a depression

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HAGUPIT TYPHOON NOW LEAVING SAMAR ISLAND Update: 0330 hours, December 7, 2014

The storm has travelled the Samar Island and is about to leave it. It has weakened a little but still has 170 kph winds. It will now move to Legazpi city and Masbate Island.

According to the JTWC it will take another two days to move through Philippines. When it moves close to Manila tomorrow evening (local time), the winds  will be still 120-150 kph.

Hagupit Will Go To Vietnam Too

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph

See Latest Track Forecast Map
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THE 'EYE' HAS HIT PHILIPPINES AT SAMAR (BETWEEN BORONGON AND TAFT)

Update: 1400 Hrs, December 6, 2014

Typhoon Hagupit has hit Philippines at Samar Island between Borongon City and Taft. The landfall happened slightly south than was earlier expected. Ground Zero is 100 kms NE of Tacloban. The storm had winds of 200 kph, gusts to 250 kph on impact.

When the eye will pass  through Samar island the winds will drop dramatically. The rains may cease or turn into a drizzle. But this will be a period of deceptive calm. Within a hour the howling will start again as the other half of the diameter will pass. Samar is in for a good hiding tonight. It is already facing very strong winds and drenching rains.

The storm will pack winds of 140-165 kph even on Monday-Tuesday as it leaves Philippines. A powerful storm.

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THE STORM HAS HARDLY MOVED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS: TYPHOON JANGMI AFTER HAGUPIT?
Update: 1000 hours GMT, December 6, 2014

It seems as if it was deciding which direction to go to. Searching for conditions which will favor it. Yes. Typhoon Hagupit has remained almost stationary in the last 3 hours.

Forecast models mostly say it will make landfall at north Samar tonight (or early morning tomorrow). Winds at time of impact will be about 185 kph. It will then move though Bicol and then on to Mindoro and Luzon over the next 2-3 days. The city of Legazpi will face a direct hit.

Because it is slow moving it will throw down more precipitation and expose the country to strong winds for a longer period.

Already a part of the diameter of the storm has already entered Philippines.

Another piece of bad news for Philippines. Latest GFS  forecasts indicate of another typhoon hitting the country around December 14, 2014. Typhoon JANGMI will be smaller than Hagupit but one storm after another in a few days! The mind boggles.

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HAGUPIT'S PERIPHERY IS TOUCHING PHILIPPINES NOW
Update: 0500 Hrs GMT, December 6, 2014

Right now Typhoon Hagupit's outer boundary is touching Samar Island. Wind speed is 210 kph, gusts up to 260 kph. The storm is weakening.

Most forecasts say that  the storm will curve slightly upwards. The worst affected areas will be Samar, Bicol, Tagalog. The typhoon will move over these areas in the next 48 hours. The wind speeds will gradually decrease as it does so. But Manila will have 140 kph winds on Monday when Hagupit reaches it.

See the video below to know where and when will it rain as the storm moves through the Philippines. The forecast is valid from Saturday (December 6, 2014) to Tuesday (December 9, 2014)

VIDEO: Rain Forecast Owing to Hagupit (Saturday to Tuesday)

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HAGUPIT TO GROW STRONGER IN NEXT 12 HOURS TO 250 KMPH (GUSTS 300 KMPH)

Update: December 5, 2014: 1430 Hours GMT

The fears of the people of Philippines are well-founded. Typhoon Hagupit had weakened slightly in the last six hours, but latest indications are it is going to intensify even more in the coming 12 hours. 250 Kmph, with gusts up to 300 Kmph. A Category 5 hurricane without doubt.

The only silver lining  (If one may say so) is that when the typhoon passes Samar Island Sunday morning winds will drop to 210 Kmph. This is a slow moving storm, which makes it even more lethal. Strong winds for longer periods and more rainfall dumped over an area.

The word "landfall" is for met guys. It means the "eye" of the cyclone moves aver a particular area. For  the people who will face the storm it is a technical irrelevancy. The eye of Hagupit is about 300 kms from the Philippines coast of Samar, but the lashing has already started as the periphery of this huge storm has already started moving in.

The latest forecast bulletin by the JTWC issued at 1500 Hrs today (December 5, 2014) predicts the brunt of the storm will be felt in Eastern Visayas, Bikol and Southern Tagalog. A relentless hammering by 200-250 kph winds. Come Monday evening (local time) and Manila will get a direct hit with 130-170 kph winds.

Philippines is in for hard times in the next 72 hours

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HAGUPIT WILL HIT EAST VISAYAS (PHILIPPINES) TOMORROW (LOCAL TIME) WITH 200 KMPH WINDS

Update: December 5, 2014: 0300 Hrs GMT

It is almost certain now that Typhoon Hagupit will enter Philippines at Eastern Visayas tomorrow morning (Philippines Time). The wind speeds then will be 200 Kmph, gusts up to 250 Kmph. The typhoon is weakening from its peak strength yesterday (It is below super typhoon grade now) but it will still be a formidable storm when it hits Philippines tomorrow.

The areas that will  be worst affected will be Eastern Visayas, and parts of central Visayas, west Visayas and Bikol. After hitting the country the typhoon is going to move in a  NW direction for the next 48 hours. That is the worrying part. The storm is going to move over the country slowly, lingering on till Monday morning. With such winds, in two days, it could wreak havoc.

The worst affected islands will be Samar, Leyte, Bikol, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro.

By the time it exits Philippines from the Mimiropa area it will be considerably weakened. This is the scenario on which the GFS and ECMWF Models agree.

The JTWC predicts a slightly northerly course. Hitting Bikol and then moving through Luzon. According to it, Hagupit will move over Philippines for three days; Till Tuesday. On Tuesday morning Manila will experience 115-140 Kmph winds.

The storm on entering the South China Sea will face the colder waters along the mainland Asian coast and so will not be able to intensify much again. It will move on to Vietnam on December 12, 2014 as a weak storm. Winds of 60-80 Kmph.

At 1200 Hrs GMT yesterday, according to NOAA readings, Hagupit was a Dvorak 8 Hurricane. That is a Category 5 hurricane.

The central pressure at 0600 Hrs GMT, December 5, 2014: 941 Mb. A Big storm, in short. But the central pressure is increasing, a sign that the typhoon is weakening.

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PHILIPPINES WILL BE HIT: POINT AND TIME OF IMPACT: EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS

Update: December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT

All the forecast models agree. Philippines will be hit on Saturday. The GFS model (along with the JTWC) say now that the country will suffer a direct assault by this monster created by nature. The ECMWF model has been saying all the time that super typhoon Hagupit would hit Philippines.

The models disagree only on the areas of the country which will bear the brunt of the storm.

The GFS says the worst affected will be East Visayas, Bikol and Luzon (Including Manila). The European model predicts a 'Haiyan' path. Piercing through the Visayas (East, Central and Western). That means Tacloban is in for another lashing. In short the GFS (and JTWC) predict northern Philippines will be worst hit. The ECMWF says central Philippines.

In fact, the European model says Hagupit will go on to Vietnam on December 11, 2014. The GFS forecasts its dissipation over northern Philippines.

Time Of Impact will be Saturday morning (December 6, 2014) Philippines time.

Wind speed at impact will be 230 Kmph (Eastern Visaya) gusts up to 280 Kmph. At Bikol the wind will be 215 Kmph, gusting up to 260 Kmph. When it passes by Manila on Monday the winds will be 160 Kmph (Gusts: 200 Kmph).

These are latest estimates (December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT)  by the JTWC, which are generally reliable. If this happnes!

Present location: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 11 Degrees North, 131.3 Degrees East.

Present Wind Speed: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 280 Kmph (Gusts - 335 Kmph)

1130 GMT: December 4, 2014: Today

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SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS WINDS OF 290 KMPH NOW: A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

Update: December 4, 2014: 0330 Hrs: GMT

It is Mother Earth at her angriest. Or call it nature gone mad. Massive super typhoon HAGUPIT is howling right now with winds of 290 Kmph. Gusts up to 315 Kmph. And it is going to get worse. The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow the winds will go up to 315 Kmph (sustained winds), gusts up to a mammoth 380 Kmph. These are readings by NOAA.

WHAT DO THE LEADING FORECAST MODELS SAY? AN ANALYSIS

The storm lay about 400 Kms NNE of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Latitude: 9.8 N. Longitude: 133.9 E. The storm is moving slowly. By  Monday morning it will come near the Philippines at East Visayas, then curve NW and move along the coast at Bikol. Though the eye of the storm will not pass through these areas the periphery will. And this will cause massive destruction. The island of Catanduanes will be badly affected. On Monday it will swing away from the Philippines, move NNE and then dissipate on Wednesday.

Both the JTWC and GFS more or less agree on the above mentioned scenario.

The ECMWF model still begs to differ. It says Hagupit will hit central Philippines on late Friday night (December 5, 2014) Philippines time, and go right through. It will then hit Vietnam on Thursday, December 11. It says Hagupit will weaken slightly when it crosses Philippines but gain strength again in the warm waters of the South China Sea. When it strikes Vietnam, it will be a big bad storm. That is if this forecast is vindicated, two countries are going to face vast devastation.

One does not get a storm like Hagupit frequently. If the JTWC predictions come true I think wind speeds of 380 Kmph is going to feature in the hall of infamous records.

The JMA Model (Japanese Meteorological Agency) largely agrees with the European model. Storm goes through Philippines onto Vietnam.

The US Navy's NAVGEM Model says the super typhoon is going to enter Philippines (At Bikol) on Saturday and then keep hammering north Philippines for three days. A doomsday scenario.

The GEM Model agrees with the NAVGEM; Only that Hagupit will enter Philippines a day later, on Sunday. And that northern Philippines will get a unholy hammering for 2-3 days after that.

HAGUPIT  NEAR PHILIPPINES ON MONDAY

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EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT HEADED TO VIETNAM

Update: December 3, 2014: 0930 Hrs GMT

At 0600 hours (GMT) today Hagupit lay 400 Kms East-North-East of Palau (Lat: 8.3 N, Long: 138.6 E). Winds were 100 knots (185 Kmph).

Meanwhile, the latest GFS forecast issued at 0600 hrs (GMT) today maintains Philippines is safe. The typhoon will  not make landfall into Philippines. It will change direction on Saturday and move north along the coast. We believe this forecast will be vindicated on Saturday. At least for the sake of Philippines (And Vietnam).

The latest forecast issued by the ECMWF persists with its earlier predictions. It says Hagupit is going to hit central Philippines on Saturday. And then pass through, go into the South China Sea and hit Vietnam on December 11, 2014.

If this really happens Philippines is in for big trouble. Hagupit is slowly turning into a monster cyclone. The devastation that it could wreak upon central Philippines (Tacloban again?) boggles the imagination.

On the other hand the latest from the JTWC (These three really matter when it comes to predicting cyclones: GFS, ECMWF and JTWC) seems to be veering around to what the GFS is saying; That Hagupit will slant north and move along the Filipino coast and not hit it. The track shows a definite curving on Saturday.

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UK METOFFICE SAYS TARGET IS BIKOL, DEC. 9
Update: Dec. 3, 2014. 0600 Hrs GMT

Amongst all the hullabaloo about the American and European forecast models everybody seems to have forgotten about the UKMO model. Yes, the UK Met Office too has its own forecast model and what does it say about the future of super typhoon Hagupit?

It says the storm will near the Philippines and hover around for two or three days then enter the country on December 9 (Tuesday) at Bikol area. It will be quite strong then.

Here is the track of Hagupit by UKMO.

 VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 03.12.2014   7.4N 139.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 03.12.2014   9.0N 136.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 04.12.2014  10.4N 134.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 04.12.2014  11.2N 132.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 05.12.2014  11.5N 131.2E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 05.12.2014  11.4N 130.7E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 06.12.2014  11.1N 130.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 06.12.2014  11.0N 129.8E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 07.12.2014  10.8N 129.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.12.2014  11.4N 128.0E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.12.2014  12.4N 126.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.12.2014  12.8N 124.9E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.12.2014  13.0N 123.7E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

SATELLITE IMAGE OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT TAKEN AT 0000 HRS TODAY GMT

UPDATE: DECEMBER 3, 2014: FORECAST MODELS STILL DIFFER: DANGER TO VIETNAM TOO?

Forecast models still differ as to what will Haupit do next. Will it cross through Philippines and go on to hit Vietnam? Or will it disintegrate near the coast of Philippines? Meanwhile the typhoon grows stronger and creeps closer to Philippines. JTWC opines that in the next 60 hours it will turn into a howling super typhoon with winds gusting up to a staggering 300 Kmph.

Typhoon HAGUPIT lay 1000 Kms from the Philippines coast, 450 Kms east of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Wind speed is about 170 Kmph. It is moving in a WNW direction. In the next 48 hours it will intensify rapidly to a super typhoon with speed of 240 Kmph, gusting up to 300 Kmph.

By Friday-Saturday midnight (Philippines time) it will be 450 Kms east of East Visaya. It will at its strongest then. Winds of 240 Kmph.

After that, what? There is a sharp difference on that.

One forecast model (GFS) says it will start curving north and move along the Philippines coast for the next three days. It further says it will dissipate rapidly on December 9 near north Philippines Cagayan region.

The European Model (ECMWF) says the typhoon will hit central Philippines on December 5-6 and move through it (East, Central, West Visayas, Palawan), It will cross over to the South China Sea and go on and strike central Vietnam on December 9, 2014.

Both the models agree on the intensity of the storm. Both say the central pressure will be about 955 mb.

HAGUPIT TYPHOON 2014: PREDICTED TRACKS/PATH

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: GFS MODEL STILL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HOVER AROUND PHILIPPINES THEN MOVE NORTH

The GFS forecast modal (Also the Special GFS Model) in its latest predictions still maintains that Philippines will be safe. Typhoon Hagupit will come near the coast of the country on late Saturday, hover around and move north. It will not hit Philippines. It will coast along the Philippines shores, dangerously close, for 48 hours, till Monday then move north.

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HIT PHILIPPINES

Everybody is confused. The GFS forecast model says Typhoon Hagupit will not make landfall in Philippines but steer north. The European ECMWF model's latest bulletin says the storm will hit central Philippines on Saturday night. It further says it will cross the country and then move over to Vietnam on December 10, 2014. The JTWC is playing it safe and not taking any position. There are  other models like the GEM, CMC, and NAVGEM but we have seen from experience that they are not so reliable. And we do not want to waste your time by going into educational intricacies.

We tend to be partial to the GFS forecast model and so have said that Philippines will remain safe from the monster of a storm. The JTWC predicts Hagupit will be a super typhoon with speeds of 240 Kmph gusting up to a massive 300 Kmph on Sunday (Dec 6, Philippines time) morning.

Scary.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: WINDS ARE 90 KMPH NOW

The American model says the typhoon will not hit Philippines. The European forecast model in its last bulletin said that it would hit Philippines and then go onto Vietnam. We await the latest news from the European model. We shall inform you as soon as we get any sort of information.

Typhoon Hagupit lies at latitude 5.9 N, longitude 147 E, about 900 kms south of Guam. In the next days it is going to intensify rapidly. On Friday (December 5) night (Philippines Time) it will be 550 Kms from Eastern Visayas. Winds will be 195 Kmph gusting up to 230 Kmph.

After December 5, 2014, the storm will start curving northwards. It will not hit Philippines, but in the next two days it will move along the coast, a few hundred kilometers far. 

By December 9-10 it will start dissipating rapidly as it meets the colder waters near the coast of Japan.

The island of Yap will face the fury of Hagupit tomorrow night with 155-195 Kmph winds.

LATEST GFS TRACK OF HAGUPIT TYPHOON. IT WILL NOT HIT PHILIPPINES

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UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: "HAGUPIT" HAS FORMED: CALLED STORM 22W

Future typhoon Hagupit has already formed. It lies at Latitude 4.9 North, Longitude 152.1 East at 0600 Hrs GMT. It has wind speeds of 65 Kmph already.

Side note: The word HAGUPIT in the Filipino language Tagalog means "thrashing". Very apt.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: HAGUPIT TO BE A SUPER TYPHOON: BANSI MAY BE STILL BORN

Upcoming super typhoon HAGUPIT is going to give the people of Philippines sleepless nights. By December 6 it will be swirling as a massive storm a few hundred kilometers from the coast of the country. With the memories of HAIYAN still raw in Filipino minds, one can understand the trepidity.

But the good news (at least for now) is that the typhoon will move away from Philippines on December 6, 2014 and head northwards. But there are five more days to go and our man Hagupit will be as unpredictable as all storms are.

Forecast models are divided. One says it will hit central Philippines (The area Sinlaku passed through) on December 6-7.

Another says it will first move towards the country then swing north and away. But even if this happens it will pass by Philippines just a few hundred kms from the coast.

Let us wait and watch.

BANSI WILL BE STILL BORN: ONCE AGAIN

We had predicted another cyclone to form; this one in the south Indian ocean. But it seems that one too will be still born. It will remain a depression. The name "Bansi" is not going to be used for some more time. One wonders why the storms in the southern Indian ocean are so weak, while the northern part of the ocean throws up monsters like Phailin, Hudhud and the infamous cyclone of 1999 in the Bay of Bengal.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 30, 2014

Both the tropical storms "2S" and "Sinlaku" are dissipating presently but two more storms are on the horizon. Cyclone Bansi will form in the South Indian Ocean on December 3-4, 2014  WSW of Indonesia and move towards Australia. Typhoon "Hagupit" will be born a couple of thousand kms east of Philippines deep in the Pacific.

Bansi will reach cyclone status on December 4. It will turn into a powerful storm but will move towards Australia and start disintegrating by December 5, 2014. Away from any inhabited land it will go largely unnoticed barring by the ships that traverse the Indian ocean.

Hagupit is another super typhoon in the making. It will become a tropical storm on December 3, 2014 and start intensifying into something mammoth. Present indications are it will not move into Philippines but curve towards Japan on December 7, 2014.

Why Are The People Of Philippines So Afraid Of Typhoons? Answer: Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Philippines November 2013

AFTER HAIYAN NOT SURPRISING

The thirtieth named storm of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season, Haiyan originated from an area of low pressure several hundred kilometers east-southeast of Pohnpei in the Federated States of Micronesia on November 2, 2013. Tracking generally westward, environmental conditions favored tropical cyclogenesis and the system developed into a tropical depression the following day.

After becoming a tropical storm and attaining the name Haiyan at 0000 UTC on November 4, the system began a period of rapid intensification that brought it to typhoon intensity by 1800 UTC on November 5.

By November 6, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) assessed the system as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale; the storm passed over the island of Kayangel in Palau shortly after attaining this strength.

 It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone.

Haiyan is also the strongest storm recorded at landfall, and unofficially the strongest typhoon ever recorded in terms of wind speed. As of January 2014, bodies were still being found.

 At 1200 UTC on November 7, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the storm's maximum ten-minute sustained winds to 230 km/h (145 mph), the highest in relation to the cyclone.

The Hong Kong Observatory put the storm's maximum ten-minute sustained winds at 275 km/h (170 mph) prior to landfall in the central Philippines, while the China Meteorological Administration estimated the maximum two-minute sustained winds at the time to be around 78 m/s (280 km/h or 175 mph).

 At 1800 UTC, the JTWC estimated the system's one-minute sustained winds to 315 km/h (195 mph), unofficially making Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed based on wind speed.

After The Storm: Tacloban in Philippines

VIDEO: VISIONS OF HELL: THE HOWLING HAIYAN

Cyclone CHEDZA To Follow Bansi?

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

A RARE GFS FORECAST MAP: DECEMEBER 3, 2014 SHOWS 2 STORMS IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN TOGETHER. ON THE RIGHT STORM CHEDZA. ON THE LEFT REMNANTS OF BANSI DRENCHING MAURITIUS AND REUNION

The South Indian Ocean seems to be like an angry god hurtling storms. Forecasts say another cyclone will follow Bansi. In fact the two storms will move together in the ocean at the same time, if the forecasts are to be believed!

The good news is that Chedza will not follow in Bansi's path but move south, far away from Mauritius.

May be Cyclone Chedza is coming soon. It is likely to form in the same area that Bansi was formed. Off the Indonesian coast. Likely to strengthen on November 29, when Bansi will be knocking on the doors of Mauritius.

Chedza like a good boy will move south away from populated areas and head down straight into the incessant powerful westerlies.

Chedza will be smaller than Bansi.

Early days now. let us wait and watch.

LATEST CYCLONE BANSI UPDATES

Cyclone Coming In The Arabian Sea Next Week?

Generally November goes and we think the cyclone season is over in the North Indian Ocean. But no! A big cyclone may be brewing in the Arabian Sea if latest predictions are to be believed by weather computer models.

When we saw the forecast graphs the first time, we did not believe it. A cyclone in December in the Arabian Sea? Naaah! But the fact remains a cyclone may be coming in the coming week. Oman. Pakistan. Gujarat. Wake up!

The storm (Ashobaa) will be born as a low pressure off the Indian coast at Kerala on November 25. It will drift towards the Gulf of Aden in the following days and slowly intensify. By November 29 it will be a depression with 50 Kph winds.Around November 30 it will reach maturity. It will cross the 64 Kph threshold and become a cyclone. It will be located about 1200 Kms east of the Horn of Africa.

After that it will turn direction and curve towards Oman.It will move past Oman December 1-2. It will be strongest then with winds of 100-120 Kph. Present forecasts say it will strike Kachcch (Gujarat)- Sindh area on  3rd December, 2014.

Let us make some things clear. Firstly a cyclone in the Arabian Sea in late-November-early December is rare. We feel the formation of the storm is in doubt. We have written this forecast only after repeated model forecasts confirmed the storm. To be sure we have to wait a few days more.

In conclusion, a storm is going to form off the Kerala coast around November 27-28. No doubt about that. The question is will it move westwards towards the Gulf of Aden or swing north towards Oman and intensify into a big storm?

Bay of Bengal Storm Final Update: Nov 8, 2014: Cyclone Unlikely, Just A Depression On November 13. Heavy Rains Expected.

The expected November 13 storm in the Bay of Bengal that will move into Andhra will not be a cyclone but a depression with 40-50 Kph winds. 

In the last few days reliable forecast models had predicted a big cyclone would hit the Andhra coast on Nov 13. The forecast was the system would move into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand and turn into a cyclone.

But latest forecasts have downgraded the system to a mere depression. In short, no cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The expected system will be at best a depression that would hit the Indian coast on November 13, 2014 with winds of about 40-50 Kph.

But it will bring very heavy rains to southern coastal Andhra, Puducherry and northern Tamil Nadu beginning from Wednesday night and will continue for another 48 hours after that. The system will move over into Karnataka and bring heavy rainfall there too on November 14, 2014. In fact all the Indian southern states will witness precipitation.

But no cyclone as we said earlier. We shall continue to monitor future forecasts by the various computer models and inform you whether there is any possibility of Cyclone Ashobaa. But the chance of the expected system intensifying into a big cyclone is low.

We will keep you updated.