Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates on Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)
January 5, 2015
Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.
We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.
GFS
A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.
Special GFS
The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.
European Model
The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.
Canadian CMC
The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.
NAVGEM
The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.
Update: January 6, 2015
Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.
Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE
January 5, 2015
Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.
We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.
GFS
A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.
Special GFS
The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.
European Model
The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.
Canadian CMC
The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.
NAVGEM
The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.
Update: January 6, 2015
Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.
Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE
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