Future Possible Super Cyclone Bansi Has Been Born As 92S In SW Indian Ocean

Update: December 9, 2015

The monster has been spawned. Possible super storm 'Bansi' (NOAA calls it 92S) was born yesterday evening just a few hundred kilometers north-west of the Mascareignes. It lies now (At 0000 Hours, GMT, December 9, 2015) at 18.9 South and 53.9 East. Pressure 1007 Mb. An innocuous little 'low'. In a day or two it will start transforming into a massive super-cyclone, if some forecast models are to be believed.

The storm has been born very near Mauritius and Reunion. That is worrying as we have already discussed before. There is little response time between the official storm warning and the actual cyclone hit. Anyway.

What is frightening is that the normally reticent ECMWF Model predicts Bansi will be a cyclone with a central pressure of 932 Mb. A massive powerful storm with a diameter that would cover the entire peninsular India. Big. Big. The lower the central pressure the more intense the storm. Simply put, it mean stronger winds. Real bad news.

The only good news is that Bansi will turn into a monster only after it leaves the Mascareignes. Some consolation. Latest GFS forecasts say when Bansi will be moving over Mauritius it have winds in excess of 150 kph.. Yeah. The latest forecast bulletin, issued at 0000 hours GMT today, says Bansi is going to hit Mauritius head on.

Time of impact? Morning of January 13, 2015. Coming Tuesday morning.

The storm will turn into a tropical cyclone on January 12, 2015. Monday. Three days to go. We suggest that instead of waiting for the official confirmation of Bansi, start making preparations for a 150 kph storm in the coming days. That includes folks in Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues Island. Because the cyclone may make a direct hit anywhere.

Cyclone Chedza

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on january 13, 2015.


Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

Infra-Red Images of 92S taken at 0300 hours GMT, today (January 9, 2015)

The Lack of Information Can Be Perilous.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON JANUARY 13, 2015

I just logged into the MMS site out of curiosity and clicked on "Cyclone Warning for Mauritius" link. I got a "No Cyclone Warning". It stumps us. Weather charts show two dangerous "low" bobbing around in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another just a hundred kilometers north west of Mauritius. The BBC World Weather warned us yesterday that a storm may form in the area soon.

And we get just a "No Cyclone Warning".

That is worrying. Most model forecasts say  a tropical cyclone or two may form soon in the area. In the next 72-96 hours. And even  more worrying is some of these forecasts say the tropical storm over the Mascareignes will intensify over the area and move very slowly. In other words, the storm is going to grow just over the skies of Mauritius. Perilous stuff.

We know computer forecast models can sometimes go off the mark completely. And the last thing every body wants is to create a panic. But consider the facts. All the forecasts models are predicting a tropical cyclone in the Mascreignes. Some say it will be a weak storm some say it may turn into a super cyclone. But the fact remains, a cyclone is very likely.

The folks in the Mascreignes and other parts of south east Africa deserve a mention that a storm may be coming. Better a good scare than be surprised.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

This is the area which is going to spawn a cyclone soon

Forecast Models Say Mauritius Faces Real Threat Of A Cyclone In A Few Days January 2015

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates on Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

January 5, 2015

Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.

We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.

GFS

A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.

Special GFS

The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.

European Model

The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.

Canadian CMC

The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.

NAVGEM

The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.

Update: January 6, 2015

Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
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