Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.

Future Possible Super Cyclone Bansi Has Been Born As 92S In SW Indian Ocean

Update: December 9, 2015

The monster has been spawned. Possible super storm 'Bansi' (NOAA calls it 92S) was born yesterday evening just a few hundred kilometers north-west of the Mascareignes. It lies now (At 0000 Hours, GMT, December 9, 2015) at 18.9 South and 53.9 East. Pressure 1007 Mb. An innocuous little 'low'. In a day or two it will start transforming into a massive super-cyclone, if some forecast models are to be believed.

The storm has been born very near Mauritius and Reunion. That is worrying as we have already discussed before. There is little response time between the official storm warning and the actual cyclone hit. Anyway.

What is frightening is that the normally reticent ECMWF Model predicts Bansi will be a cyclone with a central pressure of 932 Mb. A massive powerful storm with a diameter that would cover the entire peninsular India. Big. Big. The lower the central pressure the more intense the storm. Simply put, it mean stronger winds. Real bad news.

The only good news is that Bansi will turn into a monster only after it leaves the Mascareignes. Some consolation. Latest GFS forecasts say when Bansi will be moving over Mauritius it have winds in excess of 150 kph.. Yeah. The latest forecast bulletin, issued at 0000 hours GMT today, says Bansi is going to hit Mauritius head on.

Time of impact? Morning of January 13, 2015. Coming Tuesday morning.

The storm will turn into a tropical cyclone on January 12, 2015. Monday. Three days to go. We suggest that instead of waiting for the official confirmation of Bansi, start making preparations for a 150 kph storm in the coming days. That includes folks in Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues Island. Because the cyclone may make a direct hit anywhere.

Cyclone Chedza

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on january 13, 2015.


Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

Infra-Red Images of 92S taken at 0300 hours GMT, today (January 9, 2015)

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE '2S' Update: NOVEMBER 29, 2014: 500 Kms From Mauritius: Will Intensify Into A 75-90 Kmph Storm Tonight

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

CYCLONE '2S' UPDATE: NOVEMBER 29, 2014

The cyclone is 500 Kms NE of Mauritius now. (0200 Hrs GMT). Wind speed is 62 Kmph. Tonight (Mauritius time) it will intensify to winds of 75-90 Kmph. It will change direction and move between Mauritius and Rodigues Island.

The good news is that since the cyclone will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island the wind impact on these two island will be less. Tomorrow early morning Mauritius will have winds of 45-55 Kmph. Rodigues will be harder hit. Winds of 55 Kmph gusts up to 60 Kmph.

Compared to Mauritius, Rodigues will experience heavier rainfall.

It is unfortunate that the MMS is not calling the cyclone a cyclone just because of irrelevant technicalities. The JTWC has name it a cyclone, the MMS should follow suit, so that the people understand the gravity of the storm.

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YESTERDAY

NOAA has declared the storm a "Topical Cyclone Two". According to its observations the storm had wind speed of 65+ Kmph at 1200 Hrs GMT today. 

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28. 2014

The depression is 550 Kms North-East of Mauritius now. 0445 Hours GMT. Wind speeds of 55 Kmph. A deep depression is what met guys call it. Just a step away from a cyclone. Forecasts say it will intensify in a few hours. It will throw winds up to 70-80 Kmph. Technically it should be named a cyclone (Bansi) then. But if the MMS folks are as stingy as the Indian Met guys in naming storms, it will not be named.

By the time it passes Mauritius (It will pass from the east  about 50-100 Kms) on Sunday late evening it will be weakened to a depression. Rodrigues Island will face stronger winds and heavier rainfall than Mauritius as the storm will pass right through the island. Mauritius will have intermittent showers till Tuesday. Rodrigues will see heavy precipitation.

STORM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 0600 HRS GMT TODAY. WINDS OF 45-75 KMPH

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SPECIAL UPDATE November 27

The JTWC has taken cognizance of the storm. it says the possibility of it turning into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression lies about 850 kms NE of Mauritius. Winds are 55 kmph. Location: 13.2 S, 66.2 E at 0000 hours GMT today. There is no significant change as to its future course from the earlier update.

It's location now is 13.58 S, 64.91 E (0400 Hrs GMT). That is about 800 kms NE of Mauritius.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0300 HOURS (GMT)

SPECIAL UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Latest model forecasts indicate that the depression that lies about 1000 NE of Mauritius is going to intensify more than expected. It is already throwing winds of 55 kmph to 65 knph. By Friday this will rise to 75-85 kmph. The threshold for the Met guys at Mauritius is 65 kmph to name it "Bansi". Let us see when they do the christening. My suspicion is even the JTWC folks will jump in soon.

The storm will not intensify very much. It will weaken by the time its winds start lashing Mauritius by Friday night. Anyway there is going to be a lot of rainfall in the island till December 2, 2014. And winds of course. There may be wind gusts of 65 kmph.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The depression lay at Latitude 12 South, longitude 68.9 East at 0000 Hrs, GMT today. It has average winds of 55 Kmph gusting up to 65 Kmph. In the next few days it will move towards Mauritius. Latest forecasts say it is unlikely to intensify any further. Looks like the Met guys at MMC are not going to christen it "Bansi". The system will reach Mauritius shores on Saturday.

IR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT , NOV 26, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

There is a large swirling mass of clouds in the Indian Ocean below Diego Garcia Islands. Only the environment is not very favourable for it to transform into a big storm. Nevertheless, the system sustains. Presently it lies at 9.9 degrees south latitude,  70.3 degrees east longitude with winds of 45 Kmph gusting up to 55 Kmph. It is a depression now and lies 400 Kms SSW of the British Indian Ocean islands. It has moved westward in the last 24 hours. . Over the next few days it will move SW towards Mauritius. It will rapidly intensify into a 75-90 Kmph cyclone on November 30, near Mauritius. Very heavy rains are likely in Mauritius in November end. About 10 inches.

Nov 25, 0600 GMT:  has remained more or less stationary. Wind speeds have reached 55 Kmph. Location: Latitude: 10.3 S, Longitude: 70.3 E

An Infra-Red Image of the system taken today at 0400 hours GMT

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LATEST UPDATE NOV 24, 2014

CYCLONE "BANSI" WILL HIT MAURITIUS ON NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 1, 2014 WITH 80-100 KMPH WINDS

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: DECEMBER 1, 2014: MAURITIUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER DEPRESSION WHILE CYCLONE BANSI IS APPROACHING.

The Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka extending till Indonesia is in ferment. Very unstable atmosphere. Out of this turbulence three storms are going to emerge. One will move to south India and Sri Lanka and give these areas a thorough drenching. The other two will move into southern Indian Ocean.

We have been talking of cyclone Bansi for a while now. The low pressure has already formed. It lies 250 Kms SSE of British Indian Ocean Islands throwing up winds of 35 Kmph.

This system will intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours and move towards Mauritius. Chances are the depression will not intensify into cyclone strength. It will affect Mauritius and Reunion Islands on November 28, 2014. Winds will be 50-60 Kmph. A borderline case between a cyclone and a depression.

WHAT IS NOTABLE is another system will follow this depression in its wake. That will be cyclone Bansi. A stronger storm, it will reach cyclone status on November 29, the time the earlier depression will be drenching Mauritius. Present indications are Cyclone Bansi will hit Mauritius, perhaps in early December.

SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE

LATEST UPDATES: After Adjali, Cyclone BANSI. To Form November 25, 2014 In South Indian Ocean

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI AS SEEN ON NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The South Indian Ocean seems to be on over drive. Just as cyclone Adjali peters out another storm, BANSI, is going to form.

Bansi will form near the British Diego Garcia Islands. It will attain storm status on November 26, 2014. That is it will be christened Bansi. This cyclone is going to go a long long way deep south into the Indian ocean. A journey of thousand of kms and of almost a week.

A few days we have been warning of the possibility of cyclone Bansi, but we could not say for sure as the forecast was not backed up more models. But now it is confirmed. Cyclone Bansi is coming howling into the vast south Indian ocean.

The European model had hinted at the possibility many days back. Many of you had asked if we were sure. But we had clearly stated the position as it was then. But latest forecasts by the GFS confirms  the cyclone.

The genesis of the storm lies in the disturbed area of the Indian Ocean that lies NE of the present storm Adjali. From that will be born Cyclone Bansi.

Bansi is not going to be a super cyclone. Far from it. But it is going to generate winds of 120+ Kph. At least that is what we can say now. It is early days and it is difficult to say much of the intensity right now.

What we can say with certainty is that Bansi is going to bigger than Adjali, with a greater diameter. And it will have more staying power. It is going to travel hundreds of kilometers and brave the disrupting westerlies blowing below the African continent.

Bansi will intensify rapidly and be the strongest on November 26, 2014. It is going to move south for the next one week before dissipating owing to the strong westerlies. The GFS says it will pass by Mauritius and La Reunion a few hundred kilometers away on November 29, Saturday and move on southward. It will then intensify again then and move southwards before dissipating in the first week of December.

The European model says the storm will weaken but head towards Mauritius, reaching it by November 29, 2014.

What is notable of Bansi is that it is going to brave the powerful disrupting Westerlies, the dropping sea temperature as it moves south and carry on till early December, piercing through the Westerlies. A storm with stamina.

Latest Update: November 20, 2014

Major forecast models agree that Bansi is not going to hit Hit Mauritius or La Reunion but move pass them a few hundred kilometers away and go south. Latest forecasts also say Bansi is going to be a 100 Kph storm but will travel a long way. It will have a larger diameter than Adjali.

It will be strongest when it passes Mauritius on November 27. (75-90 Kph). The lowest central pressure of the cyclone will be 993. So not a very powerful storm. It will disintegrate on December 1-2, 2014 when the westerlies tear it apart.

TRACK OF UPCOMING CYCLONE "BANSI"

Bansi is going to be a large storm. This prediction map shows Bansi moving south on November 27