Tropical Depression 94S (Cyclone Haliba) Will Bring Wet Windy Weather To Mascareignes From March 9

UPDATE (EXTRA): MARCH 9, 2015

CYCLONE HALIBA IS NOW CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND We are talking of now. 1330 GMT. Haliba is 100 kilometers south-west of Reunion Island. After this it will move away. The winds in Reunion now are about 60 kph, gusts will be more. The cyclone being weak and of a smaller diameter is affecting Mauritius less. Winds of barely 35 kph. This will gradually go up to 50 kph. From tomorrow they will start easing off in Mauritius too.

By March 11, 2015 the rains will ease off both in Reunion and Mauritius. Even now they are not much. Just incessant drizzle with some moderate winds.

The focus is now shifting to south-west Pacific which is going to see the possible super cyclone Pam and also quite a powerful but less predictable Tropical cyclone Nathan. The image below, is a water vapor image of cyclone Haliba taken at 0600 GMT today morning.

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UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Well, Storm 94S did manage to get named HALIBA. But it is more of a deep depression than a tropical storm. The central minimum pressure will be 996 Mb. Hardly cyclone material.

But it will bring dark, gloomy, rainy and windy weather to the Mascareignes for a couple of days. The dull weather will stretch on till Wednesday because the remnants of tropical storm 15S will drift into the region adding to the unstable weather.

But things will clear up on Thursday.

Expect on-off rains and winds of 40 kph in Mauritius and slightly more In Reunion for a couple of days.

Cyclone Haliba is just a little boy who will not grow up.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HALIBA WITH ITS PROJECTED PATH. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0600 GMT, MARCH 9, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

There is little doubt that 94S will not transform into a tropical cyclone. The system is desperately trying to grow up and mature into a cyclone but unfavourable conditions are preventing it.

The system presently lies about 520 kilometers west-north-west of Reunion Island. In the next two days it is going to move east and pass right through Reunion.

94S is not going to turn into a cyclone but it is going to bring rainy, windy weather in the Mascareignes till Wednesday. The skies will clear up on Thursday.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

The cyclone threat to the Mascareignes seems to have receded but the region is in for a very wet windy time in the coming days as a deep depression will pass through it.

Latest forecasts say tropical cyclone Fifteen will fizzle out after making landfall into Madagascar but it is going to add to the rains that are to hit Mascareignes in the next two days.

Storm 94S which presently lies a few hundred kilometers west of Mauritius is slowly going to move south first then angle across and pass close to Reunion island (ECMWF predicts a direct hit) on March 9-10, 2015. 94S will be a depression then. So expect continuous showers and winds of 40-55 kph in Reunion and Mauritius from March 9 onwards. Reunion will be affected more.

Even after 94S passes over, the remnants of cyclone 15 will hop over into the Mascareignes and pass through it as a low pressure area. This will add another day of overcast, wet and windy weather.

In conclusion showers and winds up to 55 kph expected in Reunion and Mauritius on March 9-11. No cyclone, just a depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94S IS PRESENTLY WEST OF MAURITIUS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL MOVE CLOSE BY (OR RIGHT THROUGH) REUNION ISLAND

Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.