Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.