Tropical Depression 94S (Cyclone Haliba) Will Bring Wet Windy Weather To Mascareignes From March 9

UPDATE (EXTRA): MARCH 9, 2015

CYCLONE HALIBA IS NOW CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND We are talking of now. 1330 GMT. Haliba is 100 kilometers south-west of Reunion Island. After this it will move away. The winds in Reunion now are about 60 kph, gusts will be more. The cyclone being weak and of a smaller diameter is affecting Mauritius less. Winds of barely 35 kph. This will gradually go up to 50 kph. From tomorrow they will start easing off in Mauritius too.

By March 11, 2015 the rains will ease off both in Reunion and Mauritius. Even now they are not much. Just incessant drizzle with some moderate winds.

The focus is now shifting to south-west Pacific which is going to see the possible super cyclone Pam and also quite a powerful but less predictable Tropical cyclone Nathan. The image below, is a water vapor image of cyclone Haliba taken at 0600 GMT today morning.

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UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Well, Storm 94S did manage to get named HALIBA. But it is more of a deep depression than a tropical storm. The central minimum pressure will be 996 Mb. Hardly cyclone material.

But it will bring dark, gloomy, rainy and windy weather to the Mascareignes for a couple of days. The dull weather will stretch on till Wednesday because the remnants of tropical storm 15S will drift into the region adding to the unstable weather.

But things will clear up on Thursday.

Expect on-off rains and winds of 40 kph in Mauritius and slightly more In Reunion for a couple of days.

Cyclone Haliba is just a little boy who will not grow up.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HALIBA WITH ITS PROJECTED PATH. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0600 GMT, MARCH 9, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

There is little doubt that 94S will not transform into a tropical cyclone. The system is desperately trying to grow up and mature into a cyclone but unfavourable conditions are preventing it.

The system presently lies about 520 kilometers west-north-west of Reunion Island. In the next two days it is going to move east and pass right through Reunion.

94S is not going to turn into a cyclone but it is going to bring rainy, windy weather in the Mascareignes till Wednesday. The skies will clear up on Thursday.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

The cyclone threat to the Mascareignes seems to have receded but the region is in for a very wet windy time in the coming days as a deep depression will pass through it.

Latest forecasts say tropical cyclone Fifteen will fizzle out after making landfall into Madagascar but it is going to add to the rains that are to hit Mascareignes in the next two days.

Storm 94S which presently lies a few hundred kilometers west of Mauritius is slowly going to move south first then angle across and pass close to Reunion island (ECMWF predicts a direct hit) on March 9-10, 2015. 94S will be a depression then. So expect continuous showers and winds of 40-55 kph in Reunion and Mauritius from March 9 onwards. Reunion will be affected more.

Even after 94S passes over, the remnants of cyclone 15 will hop over into the Mascareignes and pass through it as a low pressure area. This will add another day of overcast, wet and windy weather.

In conclusion showers and winds up to 55 kph expected in Reunion and Mauritius on March 9-11. No cyclone, just a depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94S IS PRESENTLY WEST OF MAURITIUS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL MOVE CLOSE BY (OR RIGHT THROUGH) REUNION ISLAND

Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.

Storm 90S May Spell Cyclone Trouble For Mascareignes

Update: February 21, 2015

The ECMWF has turned bearish on upcoming cyclone Glenda affecting Mascareignes. It believes Glenda will move southwards before entering the waters.

The GFS in contrast is still bullish. It believes 90S will move towards Rodrigues Island and then start intensifying rapidly. The Island is in for a thorough thrashing by Glenda on February 26, 2015. After which it will turn south thus sparing Mauritius.
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It is possible that cyclone Glenda has already been born. It is called 90S by NOAA and lay at 20.3°S 99.7°E at 0000 hours today south of Diego Garcia in the Southern Indian Ocean.

This storm, if forecasts are to be believed, will take a long time to form. It is only after 5-6 days that it will gain cyclone strength. Its movement will be confounding and haphazard. It will move east first then start curving and move towards Mascareignes.

Forecast models are divided. The GFS predicts future cyclone Glenda will move towards Mascareignes but then swerve south and miss even Rodrigues island. The ECMWF says no such luck. Glenda is going to slam into the aforementioned group of islands. Or move very close to them.

It is certain that 90S is going to turn into a very powerful storm called cyclone Glenda in the coming days.

THE MASSIVE SWIRLING MASS OF CLOUDS NORTH-EAST OF MASCAREIGNES IS STORM 90S, FUTURE CYCLONE GLENDA

Cyclone CHEDZA Will Not Affect Mauritius Or Reunion

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.

Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.

0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015

CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.

The storm  lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.

CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015

Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar.  But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.

By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.

Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.

January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE

An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT.

WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...

CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.

1030 Hours, January 14, 2015

STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker

0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.

1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT  

BAKUNG Down But Not Out

Update: December 14, 2014

Owing to adverse conditions cyclone Bakung has weakened to a depression. The JTWC has stopped writing about it. But within 36 hours it is going to regenerate and rise like a Phoenix.

Most forecasts give it a moderate future. One goes onto say it will turn into a Category 2 hurricane. Most say it will be  Cat. 1 storm. Bakung will intensify rapidly in a day or two and then start moving south.

It is most likely that the invigorated Bakung will not affect the Mascarene Islands. But the ECMWF model says otherwise. It foretells a strong cyclone (Minimum Central Pressure of about 980 mb) moving straight to these islands.

One of the forecasts paints a dramatic picture. That another cyclone will form in the South Indian Ocean that will merge with Bakung. The result will be a bigger storm. But these are mere different calculations for now.

One thing is certain. Cyclone Bakung is going to come back in 48 hours.