Bay of Bengal Storm (MAARUTHA) To Hit Myanmar April 17-18, 2017

APRIL 13, 2017, THURSDAY 

The expected deep depression/tropical cyclone MAARUTHA in the Bay of Bengal will be spawned as a low pressure area today a few hundred kilometres east of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models say it will go on ultimately and hit the coast of Myanmar at Sandoway on April 17-18, 2017.

This system will intensify rapidly after forming today evening, Indian Standard Time, IST. It will move rapidly in a north northeasterly direction, strengthening all the time. It will move past Andaman Islands in the next 48-72 hours. By Saturday it will turn into full blown tropical storm.

It remains to be seen if the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) deems it fit to be a tropical cyclone MAARUTHA or labels it just a deep depression. Our estimate is that the system will be throwing out sustained winds of 65-75 km/h by April 16. A tropical cyclone.

The storm will weaken into a depression before landfall into the Rakhine state of Myanmar near Sandoway on April 18, 2017. It will bring heavy rains to Andaman and Nicobar islands and Myanmar in the coming days. Our estimate is at least 8-10 inches of torrential precipitation.

American GFS model predicts a stronger storm. It envisages the system moving more quickly and hitting Myanmar south of Sittwe on April 16. Thus leaving even less time for authorities in Myanmar to prepare for this imminent quick moving threat. The country's disaster relief personnel should swing into action at the earliest to take preemptive measures to mitigate the losses.

Our advice to tourists in the Andaman and Nicobar islands is to go to nearby storm shelters or leave for the mainland earliest possible. The weather is going to be very nasty in the coming days.

Probable position of Bay of Bengal storm on April 16, 2017.

Disturbed conditions in Bay of Bengal presently. The yellow and red dots denote lightning. The dark blue color shows heavy precipitation.

Total accumulated rainfall till April 22, 2017

August 10, 2016: As Bengal Storm Weakens, Monsoon To Intensify From August 15

AUGUST 10, 2015

The Rajasthan circulation system will start dissipating from Thursday. The Bay of Bengal low pressure system currently over West Bengal will move to Bihar-Jharkhand and weaken gradually.

The next monsoon system will form off Odisha coast on August 15. Meanwhile overall Asian monsoon situation will be boosted with two upcoming storm systems in west Pacific Ocean. One, a depression off Vietnam coast on August 14. Two, an emerging typhoon in South China Sea.

This Bay of Bengal system is expected to move through Odisha, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh.

These two storms will buck up rainfall activity in entire South East Asian region, in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, northern Thailand, Myanmar. This will have positive repercussions on South Asia monsoon.

The cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan will hover over the state, weakening all the time. It will bring heavy rains to different parts of the state till Saturday.

The venerable CPC, Climate Prediction Center, the American climate forecast agency foresees poor rainfall in India from August 16 to August 23. The lean spell may extend longer. The agency further says, at present, ENSO conditions are neutral. That is no La Niña yet.

Both the NMME and Canadian CANSIPS models predict average or below average rains in India in September except for some southern states.

Heavy rains in Chittorgarh-Bhilwara-Shahpur belt till Thursday morning.

Heavy rainfall in entire northern Rajasthan till Friday, August 12, evening.

Heavy rains in West Bengal, Tripura, Meghalaya, Bangladesh, Jharkhand till Thursday morning.

Heavy rains in Jharkhand (Ranchi) till Thursday.

Heavy rains in parts of Uttar Pradesh (Jaunpur), northern Chattisgarh on Friday, August 12.

Low pressure system to form in Bay of Bengal close to Odisha-West Bengal coast on August 16.

Heavy rains in parts of Bangladesh (Chittagong) and around Kolkata.

Clusters of thunderstorms in Rajasthan.

NOAA FORECAST MAPS 

Rainfall in last 24 hours

Hurricane PATRICIA will reach Baffin Bay on November 2!

This lady monster has stamina! Hurricane Patricia is a category 5 tropical cyclone in north east Pacific Ocean and has given Mexico a fright of its life. It is going to hit Jalisco province of the country at around 0000 GMT, October 24, 2015. That is in less than 18 hours.

The hurricane will rapidly weaken into a tropical storm hours after impact and then into a tropical depression after that. But it is going to bring very heavy rains as it cuts across Mexico.

By October 25 it will have reached Houston, Texas. Patricia will go for a brief stroll in the Gulf of Mexico. On October 28 it will re-enter the United States and move through Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky.

In the next 48 hours after that Patricia will move through the states on the eastern coast (including New York) and through Quebec, Newfoundland in Canada into Labrador Sea.

By November 2 the system will have turned into a extra-tropical cyclone and entered Baffin Bay. 

So we see that Patricia is no ordinary hurricane. It is going to travel through 3 countries in the coming 10 days.

We have based our predictions on the forecast data from the ECMWF model. It had been proved right from the beginning during hurricane Joaquín. It had predicted it would not make landfall into eastern USA even as other models, including the NHC were predicting a hit on the eastern coast.

Latest satellite image of category 5 hurricane Patricia 

Tropical Depression 94S (Cyclone Haliba) Will Bring Wet Windy Weather To Mascareignes From March 9

UPDATE (EXTRA): MARCH 9, 2015

CYCLONE HALIBA IS NOW CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND We are talking of now. 1330 GMT. Haliba is 100 kilometers south-west of Reunion Island. After this it will move away. The winds in Reunion now are about 60 kph, gusts will be more. The cyclone being weak and of a smaller diameter is affecting Mauritius less. Winds of barely 35 kph. This will gradually go up to 50 kph. From tomorrow they will start easing off in Mauritius too.

By March 11, 2015 the rains will ease off both in Reunion and Mauritius. Even now they are not much. Just incessant drizzle with some moderate winds.

The focus is now shifting to south-west Pacific which is going to see the possible super cyclone Pam and also quite a powerful but less predictable Tropical cyclone Nathan. The image below, is a water vapor image of cyclone Haliba taken at 0600 GMT today morning.

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UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Well, Storm 94S did manage to get named HALIBA. But it is more of a deep depression than a tropical storm. The central minimum pressure will be 996 Mb. Hardly cyclone material.

But it will bring dark, gloomy, rainy and windy weather to the Mascareignes for a couple of days. The dull weather will stretch on till Wednesday because the remnants of tropical storm 15S will drift into the region adding to the unstable weather.

But things will clear up on Thursday.

Expect on-off rains and winds of 40 kph in Mauritius and slightly more In Reunion for a couple of days.

Cyclone Haliba is just a little boy who will not grow up.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HALIBA WITH ITS PROJECTED PATH. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0600 GMT, MARCH 9, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

There is little doubt that 94S will not transform into a tropical cyclone. The system is desperately trying to grow up and mature into a cyclone but unfavourable conditions are preventing it.

The system presently lies about 520 kilometers west-north-west of Reunion Island. In the next two days it is going to move east and pass right through Reunion.

94S is not going to turn into a cyclone but it is going to bring rainy, windy weather in the Mascareignes till Wednesday. The skies will clear up on Thursday.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

The cyclone threat to the Mascareignes seems to have receded but the region is in for a very wet windy time in the coming days as a deep depression will pass through it.

Latest forecasts say tropical cyclone Fifteen will fizzle out after making landfall into Madagascar but it is going to add to the rains that are to hit Mascareignes in the next two days.

Storm 94S which presently lies a few hundred kilometers west of Mauritius is slowly going to move south first then angle across and pass close to Reunion island (ECMWF predicts a direct hit) on March 9-10, 2015. 94S will be a depression then. So expect continuous showers and winds of 40-55 kph in Reunion and Mauritius from March 9 onwards. Reunion will be affected more.

Even after 94S passes over, the remnants of cyclone 15 will hop over into the Mascareignes and pass through it as a low pressure area. This will add another day of overcast, wet and windy weather.

In conclusion showers and winds up to 55 kph expected in Reunion and Mauritius on March 9-11. No cyclone, just a depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94S IS PRESENTLY WEST OF MAURITIUS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL MOVE CLOSE BY (OR RIGHT THROUGH) REUNION ISLAND

Depression 99W Heading To Philippines: May Turn Into A Tropical Storm: Heavy Rains Heading To Vietnam Too.

Update: December 27, 2014

India is not the only country that's staring at a depression. Depression 99W is heading Philippines' way. It is likely to reach it in the next 48 hours.

Heavy rains and flooding is what the Philippines is going to experience as the tropical depression 99W heads for it. The storm is going to affect central Philippines the most. The Visayas the most. Unfortunate Tacloban is in for heavy rains and some gusts in the next two days.

The depression will move through Philippines and emerge into warm waters of the South China Sea on December 31, 2014. That is when it is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm 'Jangmi'. It will then move towards southern Vietnam weakening before landfall on January 2, 2015. 

Jangmi will be a small cyclone with a central pressure of 997. It will be at its strongest as it moves across the South China Sea. Winds will not be the major problem for Vietnam as the heavy rains. Expect a deluge in the southern part of the country in early January.

See Rain Forecast Maps

Storm 95B: Bay Of Bengal: No Cyclone, Just A Depression, But A Big Rain-Maker

The Storm 95B which is presently hovering in the Bay of Bengal near the coast of Sri Lanka is unlikely to intensify into a cyclone.

Update: December 27, 2014

Earlier there were expectations that the system would strengthen briefly into a cyclone. But latest forecasts rule out the possibility. The storm will remain a depression but owing to its inner stamina it would move north into the Bay of Bengal. It is likely to dissipate on January 4, 2015, before it makes landfall into Bangladesh.

In the next two days it will drift close to North Sri Lanka (More rains!) and the coast of Tamil Nadu (Rains! Rains!) then move away from the coast and move north. The colder waters of the north Bay of Bengal will not prove conducive for it and and the depression will start weakening (If it had been June or September, it would have turned into a roaring cyclone!).

But it is a depression and so will throw up some winds (30-50 kph) in North Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. And of course, the rains. For the expected rainfall from this depression see the Rainfall Forecast Map below.

We can see from the forecast map (The figures are in inches) that depression 95B is going to bring very heavy rainfall (25 inches) to coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also heavy rains (5-10 inches) are expected in northern Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu (Including Chennai), Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Rains are also likely in coastal Bangladesh by January 4, 2015.

See detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

CMC Model Predicts A Cyclone!

The esteemed Canadian Model still remains bullish on the depression. It expects the storm to intensify into big cyclone and hit Bangladesh on January 1, 2015. Something like the energetic cyclone Kate which is ripping across the waters of south Indian Ocean as we speak.

But we take this prediction with a big pinch of salt. The possibility of a big bad storm emerging from 95B seems remote.

The same model predicts two cyclones forming in the south Indian Ocean in the next one week. One hits Rodrigues Island (Mascarene Islands) on January 4, 2015. (Surprisingly even the NAVGEM Model supports this prediction) And another hitting north-west Australia on the same day.

Seems unlikely.

Arabian Sea Tropical Storm To Form Sunday (June 8, 2014). To Dissipate Near Oman Coast On June 13

The tropical storm near the Goa coast before it veers away towards Oman on June 11, 2014

Latest GFS forecasts have confirmed the formation a tropical storm on Sunday (June 8, 2014) near the Kerala coast. The low pressure area (precursor) to the storm has already formed in south Arabian Sea.

What about the tropical storm (Nanauk?)? After forming near Kerala on June 8 it will intensify and move in a northerly direction till it reaches the coast near Goa on June 11 (Wednesday).

After that it is expected to swing away in a NW direction and head towards Oman. But it will start dissipating as it moves towards the north Oman coast and break up totally by June 13, 2014. Its remnants will give some rains to Oman on June 13, 2014 (Friday).

We will keep you informed of the developments constantly. The situation is very volatile now.

The system breaks up near Oman on June 13, 2014

Tropical Depression Two-e Will Bring Heavy Rains To Central Mexico, Yucatan In Coming Days: To Florida On June 11,2014

AMERICAS

Satellite image of TD-Two-e as seen at 2100 hrs, (UTC) June 2, 2014

Is Tropical Storm Boris coming? May be. May be not. But a deep depression has formed in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico. This system is likely to movie slowly through central Mexico in the next few days bringing very heavy rains there.

After moving into the Gulf of Mexico Two-e is expected to gain strength. It is going to give a deluge to the Yucatan peninsula. The question is will Two-e cross the NHC threshold to become a tropical cyclone; To be christened "Boris"?

Two-e is also going to bring heavy precipitation to Florida on June 11, 2014. It is then expected to weaken and move eastward into the Atlantic Ocean after that.

That is the present forecast. But will Two-e turn bigger and nastier than as is expected now? More importantly, will it stray from the predicted course and hit other states besides Florida?

...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD THE COAST

Here is what the storm guru, JTWC, has to say about Two-e.......

Heavy rains hit Florida on June 11, 2014

Current NASA satellite image of tropical storm BORIS

Another view of tropical storm BORIS