Tropical Storm JANGMI Will Be A Little Storm: But Heavy Rains In Philippines. Vietnam Not To Be Affected

Update: December 29, 2014

Tropical Storm Jangmi will be a little storm. At its zenith it will whip up winds of 75 kph. No More. But it will bring a lot of rain to central Philippines till January 1, 2014.

Right now the storm has entered central Philippines. Heavy rains are lashing Caraga in Mindanao. The storm will move through Visayas (All of them) and exit the country via Palawan. It is going to intensify when it leaves the Western Viasayas tomorrow evening (Local Time). Winds will reach speeds of 75-80 kph. So Palawan is in for a windy, wet New Year's Day.

Jangmi is not expected to hit Vietnam. It is going to move in a SW direction after leaving Palawan. It will then move in the South China Sea and dissipate before it reaches Thai shores on January 4, 2014. Some rains in Thailand too on that day.

Track Path Forecast for Tropical Storm Jangmi according to JTWC (Bulletin issued at 0300 hours, GMT, December 29, 2014)

See Rain Forecast Maps

See TS Jangmi Live

Bay of Bengal Depression 95B: Will Peter Out In Three Days, But Heavy Rains In Coastal Andhra, Odisha.

Update: December 29, 2014

As expected depression 95B that is hovering around in the south-west Bay of Bengal will not intensify into a cyclonic storm. It will potter around in the sea and dissipate in the next 72 hours.

The winter is inconducive to 95B to intensify any further. It is at presently sniffing around looking for avenues that will help it grow. But the waters up north in the Bay are colder hence it will just move around in the Bay and then dissipate.

Contrary to what the GFS forecast believes 95B will move north along the coast and even throw up cyclone speed winds on January 1, 2014 when it will be near the Odisha coast. The storm will move much closer to the Indian coastline then was earlier expected. So more rains expected, especially in coastal Andhra and Odisha.

About the rainfall it will cause. Not much. At least less than expected. 95B is going to dump most of its precipitation in the sea itself as it is not going to make landfall. But even then it has a lot of energy and so it will throw rain-bearing clouds onto coastal India. Odisha will receive heavy rains in a day or two. Rainfall and winds expected in coastal Tamil Nadu, Andhra, West Bengal and even Bangladesh till January 2, 2014.

See Depression 95B LIVE

See the detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps for more information and forecast.

Infra-Red satellite image of 95B taken at 0530 Hours IST, December 29, 2014.

The Track Path Forecast for 95B. The red line is the GFS forecast. The storm will dissipate in the sea near the Andhra coast on January 1, 2015.

Depression 99W Heading To Philippines: May Turn Into A Tropical Storm: Heavy Rains Heading To Vietnam Too.

Update: December 27, 2014

India is not the only country that's staring at a depression. Depression 99W is heading Philippines' way. It is likely to reach it in the next 48 hours.

Heavy rains and flooding is what the Philippines is going to experience as the tropical depression 99W heads for it. The storm is going to affect central Philippines the most. The Visayas the most. Unfortunate Tacloban is in for heavy rains and some gusts in the next two days.

The depression will move through Philippines and emerge into warm waters of the South China Sea on December 31, 2014. That is when it is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm 'Jangmi'. It will then move towards southern Vietnam weakening before landfall on January 2, 2015. 

Jangmi will be a small cyclone with a central pressure of 997. It will be at its strongest as it moves across the South China Sea. Winds will not be the major problem for Vietnam as the heavy rains. Expect a deluge in the southern part of the country in early January.

See Rain Forecast Maps

Storm 95B: Bay Of Bengal: No Cyclone, Just A Depression, But A Big Rain-Maker

The Storm 95B which is presently hovering in the Bay of Bengal near the coast of Sri Lanka is unlikely to intensify into a cyclone.

Update: December 27, 2014

Earlier there were expectations that the system would strengthen briefly into a cyclone. But latest forecasts rule out the possibility. The storm will remain a depression but owing to its inner stamina it would move north into the Bay of Bengal. It is likely to dissipate on January 4, 2015, before it makes landfall into Bangladesh.

In the next two days it will drift close to North Sri Lanka (More rains!) and the coast of Tamil Nadu (Rains! Rains!) then move away from the coast and move north. The colder waters of the north Bay of Bengal will not prove conducive for it and and the depression will start weakening (If it had been June or September, it would have turned into a roaring cyclone!).

But it is a depression and so will throw up some winds (30-50 kph) in North Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. And of course, the rains. For the expected rainfall from this depression see the Rainfall Forecast Map below.

We can see from the forecast map (The figures are in inches) that depression 95B is going to bring very heavy rainfall (25 inches) to coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also heavy rains (5-10 inches) are expected in northern Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu (Including Chennai), Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Rains are also likely in coastal Bangladesh by January 4, 2015.

See detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

CMC Model Predicts A Cyclone!

The esteemed Canadian Model still remains bullish on the depression. It expects the storm to intensify into big cyclone and hit Bangladesh on January 1, 2015. Something like the energetic cyclone Kate which is ripping across the waters of south Indian Ocean as we speak.

But we take this prediction with a big pinch of salt. The possibility of a big bad storm emerging from 95B seems remote.

The same model predicts two cyclones forming in the south Indian Ocean in the next one week. One hits Rodrigues Island (Mascarene Islands) on January 4, 2015. (Surprisingly even the NAVGEM Model supports this prediction) And another hitting north-west Australia on the same day.

Seems unlikely.

Bay Of Bengal Storm: December 2014: Perhaps A Cyclone Is Coming.

Update: December 26, 2014

Seems like a cyclone is imminent in the Bay of Bengal. Earlier forecasts by leading weather models had said the system would at best be a deep depression. We too were sceptical about a cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal in mid winter. But latest forecasts say other wise. May be we are staring at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours. Climate change? Perhaps.

It is generally agreed by reliable forecast models that the system 95B that hovers presently near Sri Lanka will intensify on December 29-30 into a tropical cyclone. In the next few days the storm is going to go around in a circle. Go south first then curve east, then north then westwards towards the coast of Tamil Nadu. At that point on December 30, 2014, it will intensify into a cyclone. The central minimum pressure (Which is an indicator of how strong a storm is: Hurricane Wilma had a central pressure of 882 mb) will drop into the 990s from the 1002-1004 mb levels.

After that opinions differ. The GFS says it will  travel a few hundred kilometers from the Indian east coast and head to Bangladesh. The European model agrees more or less, only it says it will be a weaker storm. The US Navy's NAVGEM Model is the most bullish on 95B. It gives a central pressure of 993 and the strongest wind speeds. It says the cyclone will move in the Bay of Bengal and hit Andhra coast on December 31, 2014.

It seems Mother Earth wants to start the new year with a bang.

Whatever happens the expected tropical storm is not going to be in the league of Phailin, Hudhud or even Nilofar. One can hardly expect a super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in December. But it might throw out winds of around 80 kph or more. And of course it is going to be a rain-maker. Depends on how it goes. Sri Lanka is getting a deluge right now because of 95B.

In conclusion, we feel system 95B will turn into a tropical cyclone in the next three days, when it is near the coast of Tamil Nadu, but it will start weakening as it ascends the latitudes and experiences the colder waters of the Bay. The moot point is will the IMD christen the storm when it is at its strongest on December 29-30 or will 95B remain an unnamed "deep depression"?

A latest satellite image of 95B taken at 0500 hours GMT, December 26, 2014. (Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The latest track path forecast of Storm 95B. The yellow line is the path prediction by the Canadian GEM Model. The other two are the forecasts by GFS and US Navy's NAVGEM Models.

This chart predicts the intensity of Storm 95B. The forecast is by AVNO, an offshoot of the GFS Model. The expected wind speeds are given in Knots. I knot = 1.85 kilometers per hour (Kph). The chart says the system will turn into a cyclone after 72 hours when its winds will exceed 64 kph.

The IMD remains bearish on chances of a cyclone. It seems we will have to be satisfied with a "deep depression".

Rainfall Prediction Map: How much rain is Storm 95B (Ashobaa?) going to bring and where in the next 8 days?

Philippines In Peril: Tropical Storm Jangmi Is Coming!

Philippines has just emerged from typhoon Hagupit, when another peril lurks round the corner. Jangmi is gonna come visiting the country on December 29.

Tropical Storm Jangmi is gonna be a slimy customer. Right now it does not exist, even as a low pressure. Hence it has not come on NOAA's constant vigil, even as an "invest".

The storm will begin innocuously as a low north of Papua New Guinea in a day or two. It will then stealthily creep towards Philippines, come near the coast of Mandanao, then intensify rapidly into a tropical storm, very close to the coast of the country on December 29, 2014.

It will then move NNW and enter the country from the Eastern Visayas.

Jangmi will be no Hagupit but it will cause trouble because it will be a slow moving storm. It is gong to move diagonally into the country. Hence lots of rains and of course the winds.

Storm Forms Off Sri Lankan Coast: Cyclone Ashobaa?

A low pressure has formed 200 kilometers SSE from the Sri Lankan coast (4.6 N Latitude, 82.6 E Longitude) that has NOAA raising its ears and start tracking it. NOAA calls it 95B. The stretch of south Bay of Bengal from Sri Lanka to the Indian Andaman Islands has been very turbulent since the last few days. There have been frequent downpours in Sri Lanka leading to floods.

Now the turbulent weather is crystallizing into a storm. Earlier we had predicted a depression, but now it seems a cyclone is in the offing. A very large diameter cyclone. Not very windy as compared to the formidable Phailin and Hudhud but a big trouble-maker.

Yeah. Chances are this storm that hovers south of Sri Lanka is going to metamorphose into cyclone Ashobaa. The eye of the storm will become visible on December 28, 2014. And sustained winds will cross the threshold of 64 kph (To be termed a cyclone). But one doubts whether the Indian Met Department will christen it "Ashobaa". One has observed that the esteemed met dept, unlike the Americans and Australians, is very reluctant in christening storms. They prefer the term deep depression which need not be named.

We feel the current storm is going to qualify enough to be 'promoted' to a cyclone. But the venerable IMD has the powers....

Anyway... The cyclone is expected to move north along the coast of India and reach Bangladesh on January 2, 2015. So expect windy and wet weather along the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal. Sri Lanka, of course, is in for more precipitation in the coming days.

The heaviest rains will be coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh.

But we should keep one thing in mind. This is not June or September-October. This is mid-winter. The end of the month of December. So the waters of the Bay of Bengal are going to colder as we ascend the latitudes. So the cyclone, if it forms, is going to be strongest when it will be in the warm waters of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. As it moves further north it will start weakening. The storm will be strongest on December 29, 2014. Then the decline will start.

We feel it will be best, a deep depression, A big rain-maker, but no cyclone.

We shall continuously monitor the upcoming storm and give you the latest updates.

See the Bay of Bengal (December 2014) depression LIVE.

See Rain Forecast Maps For South Asia for the rainfall owing to the upcoming depression.

Live animated water vapor satellite images of Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal

The forecast track path of 95B in the Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Kate Forms In South Indian Ocean

Update: December 25, 2014

In a twist of bureaucratic technicality Cempaka became Kate. Since the cyclone formed lower than 10 degrees south latitude the Australian Met got the honors of christening the storm and not Indonesia.

We had been predicting the arrival of cyclone Kate for the last few days. At 0000 hours GMT today it lay at 11.4 degrees south and 97.2 degrees east with wind speed of 65 kph; The cut-off to be named a cyclone.

For the next two days Kate is just going to toddle around the waters of the South Indian Ocean remaining at the same strength, not weakening, not strengthening. Come December 27, 2014 and Kate will swing into action. She will start intensifying rapidly. She may reach wind speeds of 100 kph and move south.

But Cyclone Kate is going to be short-lived. On December 29, the storm will experience the strong westerlies which will literally tear it apart.

The Cyclone Kate Forecast Track Path issued by the JTWC at 0300 hours GMT today

Bakung Is Dead!

Update: December 17, 2014

Bakung is dead. The GFS had painted a rosy picture for the storm yesterday which had encouraged us to write about it hitting Mauritius. 

But there are changing factors in the Indian Ocean which has even the top forecast models giving radically different forecasts at every successive bulletins. The ocean is in deep ferment right now. No doubt about it. What worries us that with such rapidly changing conditions the hazard of a cyclone developing rapidly and moving even more rapidly becomes more.

We took a lot of flak for predicting that Bakung would hit Mauritius yesterday. Some folks even suggested that we could not read weather charts properly! What should be understood is that we base our predictions on what the various forecast models say. And when variables change rapidly, as they are doing so in the Indian Ocean, one get wildly fluctuating forecasts.

Please, do not shoot the messenger. Our only fault is that we do not wait (Like various Met Departments do) cautiously till a storm has formed and then give out weather forecasts. We do not play safe. We give you what the latest computer models say. Even if we get eggs thrown on our faces.

We inform and give out possibilities. First. As also the latest updates. And we shall continue to do so.

Keep in touch for the latest.

Update: December 16, 2014

The Mascareignes are in for tough times if latest forecast models are to be believed. The trouble

will come with the name of Bakung. The storm is going to start intensifying after 96 hours and start moving tpwards the Mascarene Islands. It will still be strengthening when it hits Mauritius head-on around the end of the month.

The presently weakened Bakung is not a cyclone now. Just one of the low pressure areas bobbing around in the vast Indian Ocean. But this is no ordinary low pressure area. It is going to cause serious trouble for Mauritius by the end of the month.

We have saying in the last few days that the Indian Ocean is in ferment now. We had also predicted that Bakung was down but not out.

The storm is going to slowly start intensifying after 96 hours. That is around December 21, 2014. After that it will start heading towards the Mascarene Islands. By the time it hits Mauritius on December 29, 2014 it will be a powerful cyclone. The central pressure of the storm will be 983 mb. A respectable storm. Not a Hagupit. But still a big enough storm to cause damage. The winds will be 150 kph when it hits Mauritius.

Bakung Will Come To Mascareignes As A Depression

Update: December 15, 2014

The chances of Bakung turning into a significant storm is getting remote.. The earlier forecasts hinting at a Category 2 hurricane seem to be receding.

Bakung is a mere Tropical Depression now. It has moved east in the last few days. It lies about 1000 kms ESE of Diego Garcia.

Most models agree that it is not going to move south as earlier predicted but move SW towards the Mascarene Islands. It is likely it will reach these islands as a depression by the end of the month. The GEM Model differs from the others. It foresees Bakung rejuvenating and A NEW storm being born in the coming week. And this storm (and not Bakung) will hit the Mascarene Islands around December 25, 2014. The model furthers says it will be a cyclone, not a mere depression.

Things are confused now. We have to wait for a few days till the "fog" clears.

Cyclone Bakung as seen on December 12, 2014

Cyclone Bakung Will Turn Out To Be A Category 2 Hurricane

Update: December 13, 2014

Cyclone Bakung which is at present hovering in the south Indian Ocean will intensify into a 140+ kph storm. Where will it go? What will be its path, track?

It lies 1200 kms ESE of Diego Garcia now (0430 Hours GMT). Winds are 75 kph. In the coming days it will intensify gradually to a storm with sustained winds of 150+ kph. Though there is a likelihood that it might go north and rather than start moving south straight away. Most probably it will steam down south in the Indian ocean without any land mass, in the stretch between Africa and Australia.

But forecasts differ. The European model predicts it will not strengthen in to something big but remain a weak storm but its direction will be different. A SW direction. Meaning it will head to Mascareignes.

Bakung will potter around its present area for a few days then on December 16, it will intensify rapidly into a 150 kph cyclone.

The chances of it hitting Mauritius is remote now. Only the Europeans support this track. The Americans predict a stronger storm which will go straight south and embrace the Westerlies and perish around December 22-23.

Cyclone BAKUNG Has Formed Off Sumatra In Southern Indian Ocean

Update: December 12, 2014: CYCLONE BAKUNG IS INTENSIFYING NOW

Bansi is Bakung. The cyclone was born in Indonesia's area of meteorological influence, hence it go the honors to do the christening. But it is likely that this cyclone will recognise no bureaucratic areas of influence and may head to Mascareignes after a long long journey (ala Hagupit which traveled for 12 days). Right now cyclone Bakung is intensifying in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. By December 15 it will be a 100+ kph storm.

Its future is uncertain. It may head straight south to commit suicide fighting the mighty Westerlies. Or it might take a SW course and reach the Mascareignes after a long journey. Some say it will be a big storm, central pressure of 979. Others say it will trudge along as a depression. Most track forecasts only go uptil 5 days. Bakung seems to have everybody confused and divided.

See "Bakung" Track Forecast

The forecasts differ because they have different estimates of wind shear that Bakung is going to face. The GFS forecasts a high shear so it says the storm will not go far or will not intensify much. The other models give it a more favourable conditions, so it will flourish and go far.

For folks in the Mascareignes, where the local met departments follow the European Forecast Model, there is bad news. The ECMWF (The European Model) predicts Bakung is going to come hunting in your waters as a big bad storm. Especially vulnerable is Rodrigues Island whom Cyclone Bakung might affect after December 23, 2014.

It is a storm to watch. It is going to travel a long distance.

Update: December 10, 2014

Future storm Bansi is very much on. NOAA has started monitoring the system labeled "90S". Presently it lies a few hundred kms off Sumatra, In the coming days it is going to travel a long way heading south into the Indian Ocean. In a few days it will turn into a cyclone. Most forecasts say it will be quite a storm with a central pressure of 973. After December 16 it will intensify rapidly. It is not going to affect any land mass. Mascareignes is safe.

December 9, 2014
Update: December 11, 2014
Even the JTWC has taken note of 90S. Its present winds are about 40 kph. The JTWC believes it may turn into a significant tropical storm in the next 24 hours. The various models have different forecasts. Some predict it will be quite a storm with a pressure of 973, other say 985 mb. The tracks also differ wildly. Some say it will go south. Others say it will dissipate after a few days (Or remain a depression).

But this future storm is worth watching. It has forecast models confused. So had Hagupit a few days earlier.

Update: December 9, 2014
Yeah! Forecasts say our man cyclone Bansi is back! It is going to form in the next few days off the coast of Indonesia and then slowly intensify and travel a long way passing by Rodrigues Island on December 23, 2014. Presently it is a low pressure area just off Sumatra Island. (See It LIVE)

This storm has sent us on a wild goose chase. A few days ago the depression in the southern Indian Ocean failed to make it to cyclone grade and be named Bansi.

But if latest forecasts are to be believed Bansi is coming as a big bad storm! Not a super cyclone but a  big storm with a respectable central pressure of 973 Mb.

The formation of Bansi is corroborated by three forecast models, only the intensities vary.

Keep in touch for latest news of Bansi's antics.

See "Bansi" Live

Forecast Map: Cyclone Bansi on December 16, 2014

The Expected System Will At Best Be A Depression:Heay Rains Likely In Philippines, Vietnam In Next 15 Days

Update: December 10, 2014

The  system (96W) that has formed in the Pacific near Palau Island will not intensify into a significant tropical storm. It is likely to remain a low pressure area or a depression.

Update: December 9, 2014

There is another tropical storm coming  to Philippines. On December 13, 2014.

NOAA has taken note of this imminent storm. It calls it 96W (See Track). Presently it lies about 1100 kms ESE of Palau in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm JANGMI will form on December 11, and move to Philippines intensifying as it does so. It will move through central Philippines from December 13-14 and then enter the South China Sea. When it travels across the country the winds will be in excess of 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. For a country that is reeling under the impact of super typhoon Hagupit, this is bad news.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify again in the warm  South China Sea and go on to hit central Vietnam (almost the same area where Hagupit is going to impact on Thursday) on December 15, 2014, Monday.

In short, it is double whammy for Vietnam in the coming few days.

Read: Hagupit Threat to Vietnam

UPDATE: December 8, 2014

Later forecasts have predicted that the chances of a significant tropical storm forming in the next one week in western Pacific are remote. Hence Jangmi will not form now.

But Hagupit is coming to Vietnam on December 12 morning (Vietnam Time). A minor storm with winds of 65-85 kph.

UPDATE: December 7, 2014

Hagupit Will Intensify again a little as it enters the South China Sea on Tuesday. It will hit south Vietnam on December 11, 2014, albeit as a weak storm. Another smaller typhoon JANGMI will follow Hagupit in a few days.

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph.

The formation of Jangmi is supported by the GFS and Gem models. It will be a depression when it enters central Philippines on December 14, 2014. But once it enters the South China Sea, it will gain typhoon status and go on to hit Vietnam on December 16-17.

December 14, 2014: Tropical Storm JANGMI En Route To Vietnam

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 2014: LATEST CONTINUOUS UPDATES: Is Intensifying Before It Moves Into Vietnam Late Night

HAGUPIT IS INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM
Update: 0500 HRS GMT, December 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is intensifying now.
Right now it is spewing winds of 70 kph. Presently it lies about 500 kms east of central Vietnam. Contrary to what the JTWC predicts, this storm is intensifying again. It will grow stronger till it hits the Vietnamese coast early hours of Friday (Vietnam Time). At landfall the winds will be about 80-90 kph. Heavy rains are likely in central Vietnam in the next two days. (See Forecast map on right).

In fact, central Vietnam is going to see a lot of rain in the coming 10-12 days. First Hagupit and then another depression that will move in after a week. Parts of central Vietnam will face up to 25 inches of rain. Flooding, perhaps?

See the storm LIVE
See Rain Forecast Maps

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DO NOT WRITE OFF HAGUPIT...YET
Update: 0600 HRS GMT, December 10, 2014

The JTWC had almost washed its hands off Hagupit. Until it intensified again. Presently it lies about 700 kms east of central Vietnam and is throwing out winds of 75 kph.  By tomorrow evening (Vietnam Time) it will make landfall at either Binh Thuan or Ninh Thuan province. Though winds will be sub-cyclone speeds it will be still 55 kph, gusts up to 75 kph. heavy rains are expected in central and southern Vietnam.

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WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN IN NEXT 12 HOURS
Update: 0630 Hours GMT. December 9, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is going to intensify again. 

Hagupit is going to intensify in the coming 12 hours. It may weaken a bit after that but by the time it hits central Vietnam on Thursday night (Vietnam Time) it will be throwing winds of 90 kph. Some other forecasts even hint at the possibility of it going through Vietnam, Thailand and reaching the Indian coast as a depression. Phew! A long way to travel.

See Hagupit Track

But Vietnam is facing a cyclone threat in the coming 72 hours, is certain.

There is a strong possibility that the country may be hit by another tropical storm (JANGMI) on December 15-16. But that is dealt with elsewhere.

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HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE STARTED IN MANILA
Update: 1330  hours GMT, December 8, 2014

The winds are dropping all the time. In fact it is hardly windy in Manila city. The eastern coast of Luzon has strong winds of 75 kph. But it is raining hard in many parts of Luzon. Next 12 hours will see very heavy rains in Manila and Quezon City

It rained heavily in Batangas, Lucena, Tayabas city in the last one hour. It rained heavily in Mindoro  a few hours ago. The rains are shifting north now.

The storm is over Lucena now, 120 kms south-east of Manila City. In a few hours it will pass closest from the city between Calamba and Lipa. Another 6 hours after that and it will leave Filipino shores.

The worry of flooding in Manila is real.The memories of the flood of  September 28, 2009 are still fresh. The heavy rains caused by typhoon Ketsana led to inundation of the metro and 246 people had died. Four-fifths of the city had been submerged under water. Thousands had been displaced.

See animated satellite images of its recent movement HERE
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HEAVY RAINS IN MANILA TODAY
Update: 0330 Hours, GMT, December 8, 2013

The storm is weakening all the time as it moves over the Philippines land mass, Winds have dropped to 100 kph, but the rains continue. Manila is for a thorough drenching in the next 24 hours. The areas of southern Luzon and southern Tagalog (Mindoro) will get the maximum rains.

Hagupit knocking on Manila's door

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RAINS STILL A THREAT
Update: 1400 Hrs GMT, December 7, 2013

The winds are dropping all the time but the JTWC predicts that tomorrow night (Philippines Time) when Hagupit will be passing south of Manila the winds will still be about 120 kph. Presently the storm is near Masbate city with winds of 140 kph. The problem is not the winds but that the slow moving storm is dumping lots of rain on the country. It is going to take 36 hours before it exits Philippines shores.

By the time it reaches southern Vietnam on December 12, it will be below tropical storm strength, just a depression

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HAGUPIT TYPHOON NOW LEAVING SAMAR ISLAND Update: 0330 hours, December 7, 2014

The storm has travelled the Samar Island and is about to leave it. It has weakened a little but still has 170 kph winds. It will now move to Legazpi city and Masbate Island.

According to the JTWC it will take another two days to move through Philippines. When it moves close to Manila tomorrow evening (local time), the winds  will be still 120-150 kph.

Hagupit Will Go To Vietnam Too

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph

See Latest Track Forecast Map
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THE 'EYE' HAS HIT PHILIPPINES AT SAMAR (BETWEEN BORONGON AND TAFT)

Update: 1400 Hrs, December 6, 2014

Typhoon Hagupit has hit Philippines at Samar Island between Borongon City and Taft. The landfall happened slightly south than was earlier expected. Ground Zero is 100 kms NE of Tacloban. The storm had winds of 200 kph, gusts to 250 kph on impact.

When the eye will pass  through Samar island the winds will drop dramatically. The rains may cease or turn into a drizzle. But this will be a period of deceptive calm. Within a hour the howling will start again as the other half of the diameter will pass. Samar is in for a good hiding tonight. It is already facing very strong winds and drenching rains.

The storm will pack winds of 140-165 kph even on Monday-Tuesday as it leaves Philippines. A powerful storm.

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THE STORM HAS HARDLY MOVED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS: TYPHOON JANGMI AFTER HAGUPIT?
Update: 1000 hours GMT, December 6, 2014

It seems as if it was deciding which direction to go to. Searching for conditions which will favor it. Yes. Typhoon Hagupit has remained almost stationary in the last 3 hours.

Forecast models mostly say it will make landfall at north Samar tonight (or early morning tomorrow). Winds at time of impact will be about 185 kph. It will then move though Bicol and then on to Mindoro and Luzon over the next 2-3 days. The city of Legazpi will face a direct hit.

Because it is slow moving it will throw down more precipitation and expose the country to strong winds for a longer period.

Already a part of the diameter of the storm has already entered Philippines.

Another piece of bad news for Philippines. Latest GFS  forecasts indicate of another typhoon hitting the country around December 14, 2014. Typhoon JANGMI will be smaller than Hagupit but one storm after another in a few days! The mind boggles.

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HAGUPIT'S PERIPHERY IS TOUCHING PHILIPPINES NOW
Update: 0500 Hrs GMT, December 6, 2014

Right now Typhoon Hagupit's outer boundary is touching Samar Island. Wind speed is 210 kph, gusts up to 260 kph. The storm is weakening.

Most forecasts say that  the storm will curve slightly upwards. The worst affected areas will be Samar, Bicol, Tagalog. The typhoon will move over these areas in the next 48 hours. The wind speeds will gradually decrease as it does so. But Manila will have 140 kph winds on Monday when Hagupit reaches it.

See the video below to know where and when will it rain as the storm moves through the Philippines. The forecast is valid from Saturday (December 6, 2014) to Tuesday (December 9, 2014)

VIDEO: Rain Forecast Owing to Hagupit (Saturday to Tuesday)

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HAGUPIT TO GROW STRONGER IN NEXT 12 HOURS TO 250 KMPH (GUSTS 300 KMPH)

Update: December 5, 2014: 1430 Hours GMT

The fears of the people of Philippines are well-founded. Typhoon Hagupit had weakened slightly in the last six hours, but latest indications are it is going to intensify even more in the coming 12 hours. 250 Kmph, with gusts up to 300 Kmph. A Category 5 hurricane without doubt.

The only silver lining  (If one may say so) is that when the typhoon passes Samar Island Sunday morning winds will drop to 210 Kmph. This is a slow moving storm, which makes it even more lethal. Strong winds for longer periods and more rainfall dumped over an area.

The word "landfall" is for met guys. It means the "eye" of the cyclone moves aver a particular area. For  the people who will face the storm it is a technical irrelevancy. The eye of Hagupit is about 300 kms from the Philippines coast of Samar, but the lashing has already started as the periphery of this huge storm has already started moving in.

The latest forecast bulletin by the JTWC issued at 1500 Hrs today (December 5, 2014) predicts the brunt of the storm will be felt in Eastern Visayas, Bikol and Southern Tagalog. A relentless hammering by 200-250 kph winds. Come Monday evening (local time) and Manila will get a direct hit with 130-170 kph winds.

Philippines is in for hard times in the next 72 hours

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HAGUPIT WILL HIT EAST VISAYAS (PHILIPPINES) TOMORROW (LOCAL TIME) WITH 200 KMPH WINDS

Update: December 5, 2014: 0300 Hrs GMT

It is almost certain now that Typhoon Hagupit will enter Philippines at Eastern Visayas tomorrow morning (Philippines Time). The wind speeds then will be 200 Kmph, gusts up to 250 Kmph. The typhoon is weakening from its peak strength yesterday (It is below super typhoon grade now) but it will still be a formidable storm when it hits Philippines tomorrow.

The areas that will  be worst affected will be Eastern Visayas, and parts of central Visayas, west Visayas and Bikol. After hitting the country the typhoon is going to move in a  NW direction for the next 48 hours. That is the worrying part. The storm is going to move over the country slowly, lingering on till Monday morning. With such winds, in two days, it could wreak havoc.

The worst affected islands will be Samar, Leyte, Bikol, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro.

By the time it exits Philippines from the Mimiropa area it will be considerably weakened. This is the scenario on which the GFS and ECMWF Models agree.

The JTWC predicts a slightly northerly course. Hitting Bikol and then moving through Luzon. According to it, Hagupit will move over Philippines for three days; Till Tuesday. On Tuesday morning Manila will experience 115-140 Kmph winds.

The storm on entering the South China Sea will face the colder waters along the mainland Asian coast and so will not be able to intensify much again. It will move on to Vietnam on December 12, 2014 as a weak storm. Winds of 60-80 Kmph.

At 1200 Hrs GMT yesterday, according to NOAA readings, Hagupit was a Dvorak 8 Hurricane. That is a Category 5 hurricane.

The central pressure at 0600 Hrs GMT, December 5, 2014: 941 Mb. A Big storm, in short. But the central pressure is increasing, a sign that the typhoon is weakening.

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PHILIPPINES WILL BE HIT: POINT AND TIME OF IMPACT: EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS

Update: December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT

All the forecast models agree. Philippines will be hit on Saturday. The GFS model (along with the JTWC) say now that the country will suffer a direct assault by this monster created by nature. The ECMWF model has been saying all the time that super typhoon Hagupit would hit Philippines.

The models disagree only on the areas of the country which will bear the brunt of the storm.

The GFS says the worst affected will be East Visayas, Bikol and Luzon (Including Manila). The European model predicts a 'Haiyan' path. Piercing through the Visayas (East, Central and Western). That means Tacloban is in for another lashing. In short the GFS (and JTWC) predict northern Philippines will be worst hit. The ECMWF says central Philippines.

In fact, the European model says Hagupit will go on to Vietnam on December 11, 2014. The GFS forecasts its dissipation over northern Philippines.

Time Of Impact will be Saturday morning (December 6, 2014) Philippines time.

Wind speed at impact will be 230 Kmph (Eastern Visaya) gusts up to 280 Kmph. At Bikol the wind will be 215 Kmph, gusting up to 260 Kmph. When it passes by Manila on Monday the winds will be 160 Kmph (Gusts: 200 Kmph).

These are latest estimates (December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT)  by the JTWC, which are generally reliable. If this happnes!

Present location: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 11 Degrees North, 131.3 Degrees East.

Present Wind Speed: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 280 Kmph (Gusts - 335 Kmph)

1130 GMT: December 4, 2014: Today

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SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS WINDS OF 290 KMPH NOW: A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

Update: December 4, 2014: 0330 Hrs: GMT

It is Mother Earth at her angriest. Or call it nature gone mad. Massive super typhoon HAGUPIT is howling right now with winds of 290 Kmph. Gusts up to 315 Kmph. And it is going to get worse. The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow the winds will go up to 315 Kmph (sustained winds), gusts up to a mammoth 380 Kmph. These are readings by NOAA.

WHAT DO THE LEADING FORECAST MODELS SAY? AN ANALYSIS

The storm lay about 400 Kms NNE of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Latitude: 9.8 N. Longitude: 133.9 E. The storm is moving slowly. By  Monday morning it will come near the Philippines at East Visayas, then curve NW and move along the coast at Bikol. Though the eye of the storm will not pass through these areas the periphery will. And this will cause massive destruction. The island of Catanduanes will be badly affected. On Monday it will swing away from the Philippines, move NNE and then dissipate on Wednesday.

Both the JTWC and GFS more or less agree on the above mentioned scenario.

The ECMWF model still begs to differ. It says Hagupit will hit central Philippines on late Friday night (December 5, 2014) Philippines time, and go right through. It will then hit Vietnam on Thursday, December 11. It says Hagupit will weaken slightly when it crosses Philippines but gain strength again in the warm waters of the South China Sea. When it strikes Vietnam, it will be a big bad storm. That is if this forecast is vindicated, two countries are going to face vast devastation.

One does not get a storm like Hagupit frequently. If the JTWC predictions come true I think wind speeds of 380 Kmph is going to feature in the hall of infamous records.

The JMA Model (Japanese Meteorological Agency) largely agrees with the European model. Storm goes through Philippines onto Vietnam.

The US Navy's NAVGEM Model says the super typhoon is going to enter Philippines (At Bikol) on Saturday and then keep hammering north Philippines for three days. A doomsday scenario.

The GEM Model agrees with the NAVGEM; Only that Hagupit will enter Philippines a day later, on Sunday. And that northern Philippines will get a unholy hammering for 2-3 days after that.

HAGUPIT  NEAR PHILIPPINES ON MONDAY

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EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT HEADED TO VIETNAM

Update: December 3, 2014: 0930 Hrs GMT

At 0600 hours (GMT) today Hagupit lay 400 Kms East-North-East of Palau (Lat: 8.3 N, Long: 138.6 E). Winds were 100 knots (185 Kmph).

Meanwhile, the latest GFS forecast issued at 0600 hrs (GMT) today maintains Philippines is safe. The typhoon will  not make landfall into Philippines. It will change direction on Saturday and move north along the coast. We believe this forecast will be vindicated on Saturday. At least for the sake of Philippines (And Vietnam).

The latest forecast issued by the ECMWF persists with its earlier predictions. It says Hagupit is going to hit central Philippines on Saturday. And then pass through, go into the South China Sea and hit Vietnam on December 11, 2014.

If this really happens Philippines is in for big trouble. Hagupit is slowly turning into a monster cyclone. The devastation that it could wreak upon central Philippines (Tacloban again?) boggles the imagination.

On the other hand the latest from the JTWC (These three really matter when it comes to predicting cyclones: GFS, ECMWF and JTWC) seems to be veering around to what the GFS is saying; That Hagupit will slant north and move along the Filipino coast and not hit it. The track shows a definite curving on Saturday.

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UK METOFFICE SAYS TARGET IS BIKOL, DEC. 9
Update: Dec. 3, 2014. 0600 Hrs GMT

Amongst all the hullabaloo about the American and European forecast models everybody seems to have forgotten about the UKMO model. Yes, the UK Met Office too has its own forecast model and what does it say about the future of super typhoon Hagupit?

It says the storm will near the Philippines and hover around for two or three days then enter the country on December 9 (Tuesday) at Bikol area. It will be quite strong then.

Here is the track of Hagupit by UKMO.

 VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 03.12.2014   7.4N 139.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 03.12.2014   9.0N 136.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 04.12.2014  10.4N 134.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 04.12.2014  11.2N 132.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 05.12.2014  11.5N 131.2E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 05.12.2014  11.4N 130.7E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 06.12.2014  11.1N 130.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 06.12.2014  11.0N 129.8E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 07.12.2014  10.8N 129.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.12.2014  11.4N 128.0E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.12.2014  12.4N 126.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.12.2014  12.8N 124.9E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.12.2014  13.0N 123.7E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

SATELLITE IMAGE OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT TAKEN AT 0000 HRS TODAY GMT

UPDATE: DECEMBER 3, 2014: FORECAST MODELS STILL DIFFER: DANGER TO VIETNAM TOO?

Forecast models still differ as to what will Haupit do next. Will it cross through Philippines and go on to hit Vietnam? Or will it disintegrate near the coast of Philippines? Meanwhile the typhoon grows stronger and creeps closer to Philippines. JTWC opines that in the next 60 hours it will turn into a howling super typhoon with winds gusting up to a staggering 300 Kmph.

Typhoon HAGUPIT lay 1000 Kms from the Philippines coast, 450 Kms east of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Wind speed is about 170 Kmph. It is moving in a WNW direction. In the next 48 hours it will intensify rapidly to a super typhoon with speed of 240 Kmph, gusting up to 300 Kmph.

By Friday-Saturday midnight (Philippines time) it will be 450 Kms east of East Visaya. It will at its strongest then. Winds of 240 Kmph.

After that, what? There is a sharp difference on that.

One forecast model (GFS) says it will start curving north and move along the Philippines coast for the next three days. It further says it will dissipate rapidly on December 9 near north Philippines Cagayan region.

The European Model (ECMWF) says the typhoon will hit central Philippines on December 5-6 and move through it (East, Central, West Visayas, Palawan), It will cross over to the South China Sea and go on and strike central Vietnam on December 9, 2014.

Both the models agree on the intensity of the storm. Both say the central pressure will be about 955 mb.

HAGUPIT TYPHOON 2014: PREDICTED TRACKS/PATH

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: GFS MODEL STILL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HOVER AROUND PHILIPPINES THEN MOVE NORTH

The GFS forecast modal (Also the Special GFS Model) in its latest predictions still maintains that Philippines will be safe. Typhoon Hagupit will come near the coast of the country on late Saturday, hover around and move north. It will not hit Philippines. It will coast along the Philippines shores, dangerously close, for 48 hours, till Monday then move north.

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HIT PHILIPPINES

Everybody is confused. The GFS forecast model says Typhoon Hagupit will not make landfall in Philippines but steer north. The European ECMWF model's latest bulletin says the storm will hit central Philippines on Saturday night. It further says it will cross the country and then move over to Vietnam on December 10, 2014. The JTWC is playing it safe and not taking any position. There are  other models like the GEM, CMC, and NAVGEM but we have seen from experience that they are not so reliable. And we do not want to waste your time by going into educational intricacies.

We tend to be partial to the GFS forecast model and so have said that Philippines will remain safe from the monster of a storm. The JTWC predicts Hagupit will be a super typhoon with speeds of 240 Kmph gusting up to a massive 300 Kmph on Sunday (Dec 6, Philippines time) morning.

Scary.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: WINDS ARE 90 KMPH NOW

The American model says the typhoon will not hit Philippines. The European forecast model in its last bulletin said that it would hit Philippines and then go onto Vietnam. We await the latest news from the European model. We shall inform you as soon as we get any sort of information.

Typhoon Hagupit lies at latitude 5.9 N, longitude 147 E, about 900 kms south of Guam. In the next days it is going to intensify rapidly. On Friday (December 5) night (Philippines Time) it will be 550 Kms from Eastern Visayas. Winds will be 195 Kmph gusting up to 230 Kmph.

After December 5, 2014, the storm will start curving northwards. It will not hit Philippines, but in the next two days it will move along the coast, a few hundred kilometers far. 

By December 9-10 it will start dissipating rapidly as it meets the colder waters near the coast of Japan.

The island of Yap will face the fury of Hagupit tomorrow night with 155-195 Kmph winds.

LATEST GFS TRACK OF HAGUPIT TYPHOON. IT WILL NOT HIT PHILIPPINES

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UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: "HAGUPIT" HAS FORMED: CALLED STORM 22W

Future typhoon Hagupit has already formed. It lies at Latitude 4.9 North, Longitude 152.1 East at 0600 Hrs GMT. It has wind speeds of 65 Kmph already.

Side note: The word HAGUPIT in the Filipino language Tagalog means "thrashing". Very apt.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: HAGUPIT TO BE A SUPER TYPHOON: BANSI MAY BE STILL BORN

Upcoming super typhoon HAGUPIT is going to give the people of Philippines sleepless nights. By December 6 it will be swirling as a massive storm a few hundred kilometers from the coast of the country. With the memories of HAIYAN still raw in Filipino minds, one can understand the trepidity.

But the good news (at least for now) is that the typhoon will move away from Philippines on December 6, 2014 and head northwards. But there are five more days to go and our man Hagupit will be as unpredictable as all storms are.

Forecast models are divided. One says it will hit central Philippines (The area Sinlaku passed through) on December 6-7.

Another says it will first move towards the country then swing north and away. But even if this happens it will pass by Philippines just a few hundred kms from the coast.

Let us wait and watch.

BANSI WILL BE STILL BORN: ONCE AGAIN

We had predicted another cyclone to form; this one in the south Indian ocean. But it seems that one too will be still born. It will remain a depression. The name "Bansi" is not going to be used for some more time. One wonders why the storms in the southern Indian ocean are so weak, while the northern part of the ocean throws up monsters like Phailin, Hudhud and the infamous cyclone of 1999 in the Bay of Bengal.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 30, 2014

Both the tropical storms "2S" and "Sinlaku" are dissipating presently but two more storms are on the horizon. Cyclone Bansi will form in the South Indian Ocean on December 3-4, 2014  WSW of Indonesia and move towards Australia. Typhoon "Hagupit" will be born a couple of thousand kms east of Philippines deep in the Pacific.

Bansi will reach cyclone status on December 4. It will turn into a powerful storm but will move towards Australia and start disintegrating by December 5, 2014. Away from any inhabited land it will go largely unnoticed barring by the ships that traverse the Indian ocean.

Hagupit is another super typhoon in the making. It will become a tropical storm on December 3, 2014 and start intensifying into something mammoth. Present indications are it will not move into Philippines but curve towards Japan on December 7, 2014.

Philippines In Peril: Typhoon SINLAKU (NENENG) May Form December 3, 2014

The country is still recovering from Haiyang when another typhoon is likely to form east of Philippines on December 3, 2014.

The expected cyclone SINLAKU (NENENG) will be born a few hundred kilometers east of Northern Philippines  and intensify rapidly and move towards the country.

Forecasts models are not sure whether the storm will hit the country or dissipate before landfall. We can say for sure after a few days. It is about 12 days to go and a lot may happen by them.

Keep reading this site for the latest updates.