A low pressure has formed 200 kilometers SSE from the Sri Lankan coast (4.6 N Latitude, 82.6 E Longitude) that has NOAA raising its ears and start tracking it. NOAA calls it 95B. The stretch of south Bay of Bengal from Sri Lanka to the Indian Andaman Islands has been very turbulent since the last few days. There have been frequent downpours in Sri Lanka leading to floods.
Now the turbulent weather is crystallizing into a storm. Earlier we had predicted a depression, but now it seems a cyclone is in the offing. A very large diameter cyclone. Not very windy as compared to the formidable Phailin and Hudhud but a big trouble-maker.
Yeah. Chances are this storm that hovers south of Sri Lanka is going to metamorphose into cyclone Ashobaa. The eye of the storm will become visible on December 28, 2014. And sustained winds will cross the threshold of 64 kph (To be termed a cyclone). But one doubts whether the Indian Met Department will christen it "Ashobaa". One has observed that the esteemed met dept, unlike the Americans and Australians, is very reluctant in christening storms. They prefer the term deep depression which need not be named.
We feel the current storm is going to qualify enough to be 'promoted' to a cyclone. But the venerable IMD has the powers....
Anyway... The cyclone is expected to move north along the coast of India and reach Bangladesh on January 2, 2015. So expect windy and wet weather along the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal. Sri Lanka, of course, is in for more precipitation in the coming days.
The heaviest rains will be coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh.
But we should keep one thing in mind. This is not June or September-October. This is mid-winter. The end of the month of December. So the waters of the Bay of Bengal are going to colder as we ascend the latitudes. So the cyclone, if it forms, is going to be strongest when it will be in the warm waters of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. As it moves further north it will start weakening. The storm will be strongest on December 29, 2014. Then the decline will start.
We feel it will be best, a deep depression, A big rain-maker, but no cyclone.
We shall continuously monitor the upcoming storm and give you the latest updates.
See the Bay of Bengal (December 2014) depression LIVE.
See Rain Forecast Maps For South Asia for the rainfall owing to the upcoming depression.
Now the turbulent weather is crystallizing into a storm. Earlier we had predicted a depression, but now it seems a cyclone is in the offing. A very large diameter cyclone. Not very windy as compared to the formidable Phailin and Hudhud but a big trouble-maker.
Yeah. Chances are this storm that hovers south of Sri Lanka is going to metamorphose into cyclone Ashobaa. The eye of the storm will become visible on December 28, 2014. And sustained winds will cross the threshold of 64 kph (To be termed a cyclone). But one doubts whether the Indian Met Department will christen it "Ashobaa". One has observed that the esteemed met dept, unlike the Americans and Australians, is very reluctant in christening storms. They prefer the term deep depression which need not be named.
We feel the current storm is going to qualify enough to be 'promoted' to a cyclone. But the venerable IMD has the powers....
Anyway... The cyclone is expected to move north along the coast of India and reach Bangladesh on January 2, 2015. So expect windy and wet weather along the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal. Sri Lanka, of course, is in for more precipitation in the coming days.
The heaviest rains will be coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh.
But we should keep one thing in mind. This is not June or September-October. This is mid-winter. The end of the month of December. So the waters of the Bay of Bengal are going to colder as we ascend the latitudes. So the cyclone, if it forms, is going to be strongest when it will be in the warm waters of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. As it moves further north it will start weakening. The storm will be strongest on December 29, 2014. Then the decline will start.
We feel it will be best, a deep depression, A big rain-maker, but no cyclone.
We shall continuously monitor the upcoming storm and give you the latest updates.
See the Bay of Bengal (December 2014) depression LIVE.
See Rain Forecast Maps For South Asia for the rainfall owing to the upcoming depression.
Live animated water vapor satellite images of Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal
The forecast track path of 95B in the Bay of Bengal
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