Sorry Oman. The possibility of a low pressure system forming in the Arabian Sea has receded. All that will happen is that the mass of clouds near the Ethiopian coast will move towards the Saurashtra coast and bring some rains there on 6th of June, 2012.
As for Oman. Nothing, I am afraid. No rains in the near future.
WEATHER FORECAST MAPS: June 6, 2012. The rain clouds near the Ethiopian coast move to Gujarat and bring it rains
As for Oman. Nothing, I am afraid. No rains in the near future.
Now. The cloud mass hover near the Ethiopian coast
June 4, 2012. The clouds on way to Gujarat.
June 5-6, 2012. Some rain in Gujarat
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Now.The rain clouds system near the Ethiopian coast
June 3, 2012. The system starts moving east
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POSSIBILITY NUMBER 2: Other forecasts say that the rain system will move eastwards and hit the Kerala-Karnataka coast in India on June 4, 2012, skipping Gujarat.
June 4, 2012.Bang! The system slams Kerala-Karnataka coast and drenches it
3 comments:
Not even a single chance that Low Pressure area will be formed?
thats fine :)
Things aren't over yet!! Here is the latest NRL Visible imagery of West Arabian Sea showing a large area of convection.... unorganised however offshore Yemen/Oman
I am still very sure that this system is pulling the moisture and will even continue to do so till it dissipates completely in a few days from now. The convection isn't stable and is slightly sheared towards the west direction of it. Analysis from NRL/CIMSS indicates that the system won't intensify to a cyclone. However, in my opinion it still can stall the monsoon for a few days (along with the arriving dry phase of MJO from around/before Mid June). It will be a classic scenario to look for as the rainfall activity ( due to the wet MJO phase) is pretty high for the west coast of India than the interiors. The subsequent thunderstorms forming are giving some rains in the interior
Looking at the scenario, IMD may declare the further onset in Goa and around . They may even declare the onset in Mumbai also if the rains continue.
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