Update: December 17, 2014
Bakung is dead. The GFS had painted a rosy picture for the storm yesterday which had encouraged us to write about it hitting Mauritius.
But there are changing factors in the Indian Ocean which has even the top forecast models giving radically different forecasts at every successive bulletins. The ocean is in deep ferment right now. No doubt about it. What worries us that with such rapidly changing conditions the hazard of a cyclone developing rapidly and moving even more rapidly becomes more.
We took a lot of flak for predicting that Bakung would hit Mauritius yesterday. Some folks even suggested that we could not read weather charts properly! What should be understood is that we base our predictions on what the various forecast models say. And when variables change rapidly, as they are doing so in the Indian Ocean, one get wildly fluctuating forecasts.
Please, do not shoot the messenger. Our only fault is that we do not wait (Like various Met Departments do) cautiously till a storm has formed and then give out weather forecasts. We do not play safe. We give you what the latest computer models say. Even if we get eggs thrown on our faces.
We inform and give out possibilities. First. As also the latest updates. And we shall continue to do so.
Keep in touch for the latest.
Update: December 16, 2014
The Mascareignes are in for tough times if latest forecast models are to be believed. The trouble
will come with the name of Bakung. The storm is going to start intensifying after 96 hours and start moving tpwards the Mascarene Islands. It will still be strengthening when it hits Mauritius head-on around the end of the month.
The presently weakened Bakung is not a cyclone now. Just one of the low pressure areas bobbing around in the vast Indian Ocean. But this is no ordinary low pressure area. It is going to cause serious trouble for Mauritius by the end of the month.
We have saying in the last few days that the Indian Ocean is in ferment now. We had also predicted that Bakung was down but not out.
The storm is going to slowly start intensifying after 96 hours. That is around December 21, 2014. After that it will start heading towards the Mascarene Islands. By the time it hits Mauritius on December 29, 2014 it will be a powerful cyclone. The central pressure of the storm will be 983 mb. A respectable storm. Not a Hagupit. But still a big enough storm to cause damage. The winds will be 150 kph when it hits Mauritius.
Bakung is dead. The GFS had painted a rosy picture for the storm yesterday which had encouraged us to write about it hitting Mauritius.
But there are changing factors in the Indian Ocean which has even the top forecast models giving radically different forecasts at every successive bulletins. The ocean is in deep ferment right now. No doubt about it. What worries us that with such rapidly changing conditions the hazard of a cyclone developing rapidly and moving even more rapidly becomes more.
We took a lot of flak for predicting that Bakung would hit Mauritius yesterday. Some folks even suggested that we could not read weather charts properly! What should be understood is that we base our predictions on what the various forecast models say. And when variables change rapidly, as they are doing so in the Indian Ocean, one get wildly fluctuating forecasts.
Please, do not shoot the messenger. Our only fault is that we do not wait (Like various Met Departments do) cautiously till a storm has formed and then give out weather forecasts. We do not play safe. We give you what the latest computer models say. Even if we get eggs thrown on our faces.
We inform and give out possibilities. First. As also the latest updates. And we shall continue to do so.
Keep in touch for the latest.
Update: December 16, 2014
The Mascareignes are in for tough times if latest forecast models are to be believed. The trouble
The presently weakened Bakung is not a cyclone now. Just one of the low pressure areas bobbing around in the vast Indian Ocean. But this is no ordinary low pressure area. It is going to cause serious trouble for Mauritius by the end of the month.
We have saying in the last few days that the Indian Ocean is in ferment now. We had also predicted that Bakung was down but not out.
The storm is going to slowly start intensifying after 96 hours. That is around December 21, 2014. After that it will start heading towards the Mascarene Islands. By the time it hits Mauritius on December 29, 2014 it will be a powerful cyclone. The central pressure of the storm will be 983 mb. A respectable storm. Not a Hagupit. But still a big enough storm to cause damage. The winds will be 150 kph when it hits Mauritius.
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