The Storm 95B which is presently hovering in the Bay of Bengal near the coast of Sri Lanka is unlikely to intensify into a cyclone.
Update: December 27, 2014
Earlier there were expectations that the system would strengthen briefly into a cyclone. But latest forecasts rule out the possibility. The storm will remain a depression but owing to its inner stamina it would move north into the Bay of Bengal. It is likely to dissipate on January 4, 2015, before it makes landfall into Bangladesh.
In the next two days it will drift close to North Sri Lanka (More rains!) and the coast of Tamil Nadu (Rains! Rains!) then move away from the coast and move north. The colder waters of the north Bay of Bengal will not prove conducive for it and and the depression will start weakening (If it had been June or September, it would have turned into a roaring cyclone!).
But it is a depression and so will throw up some winds (30-50 kph) in North Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. And of course, the rains. For the expected rainfall from this depression see the Rainfall Forecast Map below.
We can see from the forecast map (The figures are in inches) that depression 95B is going to bring very heavy rainfall (25 inches) to coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also heavy rains (5-10 inches) are expected in northern Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu (Including Chennai), Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Rains are also likely in coastal Bangladesh by January 4, 2015.
See detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps
CMC Model Predicts A Cyclone!
The esteemed Canadian Model still remains bullish on the depression. It expects the storm to intensify into big cyclone and hit Bangladesh on January 1, 2015. Something like the energetic cyclone Kate which is ripping across the waters of south Indian Ocean as we speak.
But we take this prediction with a big pinch of salt. The possibility of a big bad storm emerging from 95B seems remote.
The same model predicts two cyclones forming in the south Indian Ocean in the next one week. One hits Rodrigues Island (Mascarene Islands) on January 4, 2015. (Surprisingly even the NAVGEM Model supports this prediction) And another hitting north-west Australia on the same day.
Seems unlikely.
See detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps
CMC Model Predicts A Cyclone!
The esteemed Canadian Model still remains bullish on the depression. It expects the storm to intensify into big cyclone and hit Bangladesh on January 1, 2015. Something like the energetic cyclone Kate which is ripping across the waters of south Indian Ocean as we speak.
But we take this prediction with a big pinch of salt. The possibility of a big bad storm emerging from 95B seems remote.
The same model predicts two cyclones forming in the south Indian Ocean in the next one week. One hits Rodrigues Island (Mascarene Islands) on January 4, 2015. (Surprisingly even the NAVGEM Model supports this prediction) And another hitting north-west Australia on the same day.
Seems unlikely.
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