Hurricane JOAQUIN May Not Hit US: Latest Updates

Hurricane Joaquín  is giving authorities in many countries nightmares. It has already turned into a category 2 storm with winds in excess of 175 km/h and is likely to intensify even more.

It has already started battering central Bahamas as it inches closer. Friday will be the worst for that country as the fury of nature will stand atop the islands before moving into the Atlantic Ocean.

US authorities are already on high alert as most forecast models say the system will make landfall into the eastern seaboard just near New York on October 6, 2015. And another worrying aspect is that many weather experts say Joaquín could well turn into a category 5 howling monster.

The imagination boggles.

But one forecast model is going against the herd of computer models.

The European ECMWF in its latest data predicts the hurricane is not going to make landfall into the USA ( Or  Canada) but will move away harmlessly into the North Atlantic.

It will gives the creeps to the busy shipping lanes from Europe to North America but the USA will remain safe.

The ECMWF model has been uncannily accurate as compared to other forecast models, especially NOAA's GFS.

Time will tell.

Hurricane Joaquin satellite image . 0715 GMT, October 1, 2015

SUPER CYCLONE PAM (17P) 2015: Latest Updates: PASSING NEW ZEALAND NOW

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0330 HRS GMT

EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING EAST CAPE NOW

The storm is 110 kilometres north-east of Gisborne and just 50 kilometres from the coast of New Zealand. Sustained winds of 80+ kph are lashing Gisborne now. Gusts are 110 kph. The sea is very rough. Wave height is 7-8 metres in the coast of east Cape.

The southern coast of South Island is peaceful now. But that will change as Pam moves south. The entire southern coast of the country from Christchurch to Gisborne will face winds of 50 kph for another 48 hours. Seas will remain rough tilll March 18, 2015 afternoon (NZ Time). Expect 6 metres waves for another 48 hours.

The incessant showers will start ceasing after 24 hours.

But the New Zealand island of Chathams which is 680 kms from South Island is in for rough wet weather for another 60 hours. The present 60 kph winds will rise to 80-90 kph before tapering off on March 20, 2015.

UPDATE: MARCH 15, 2015. 0300 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS 500 KILOMETRES FROM NEW ZEALAND COAST

The storm is now about 500 kilometres north of Paihia, North Island. Sustained winds of 125 kph. Winds of 60 kph are already hitting the northern parts of North Island.

 In the coming hours Pam will pass close by Gisborne area which will experience heavy rains and 80+ kph winds. Showers are expected all over New Zealand, especially on North Island. Heaviest in East Cape.

The effects of Pam will wear off on March 17, 2015 as the storm will move away from the country to the south.

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0830 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING BY NEW CALEDONIA

The storm has departed the shores of Vanuatu. Heavens alone knows what destruction it has left in its wake.

Presently the storm is passing 340 kilometers east of Noumea, New Caledonia and heading rapidly south clocking 20 kph. Even now it is still one hell of a storm. Sustained winds of 160 kph, gusts up to 190 kph.

NEW ZEALAND IN TROUBLE AS PAM WILL COME QUITE CLOSE ON MARCH 17, 2015

There is bad news for New Zealand. Earlier predictions said cyclone Pam would not pass by the country close. But latest forecasts say otherwise. Pam is going to pass less than 100 kilometers away from the East Cape. Just 160 kilometers from Gisborne.

And even on March 17 Pam will have sustained winds of 120 kph. The eastern coast of North Island will start to face winds of 60 kph (Including Auckland) from March 15, 2015. The coastal areas, including Whakatane and Tauranga will have 80 kph winds. Incessant moderate to heavy rains expected in the entire North Island from March 15-17.

CYCLONE PAM VISITING NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 15, 2015

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT, MARCH 14

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 1130 HRS GMT

PORT-VILA BEING BATTERED: ERROMANGO, TANNA, AMATOM NEXT

Super cyclone Pam is passing less than 100 kilometers east of Port-Vila as we write. Our conservative sustained wind speeds estimate is 180 kph, gusts up to 220 kph. The JTWC says 260 kph, gusts up to 320 kph.

A horrendous phenomenon. Hell on Earth. Nature gone crazy.

In the coming hours the southern most Vanuatu Islands will face Pam's frenzy. The nightmare that Vanuatu is experiencing will start abating from 0600 hours, March 14, 2015 as Pam will move south away from the waters of Vanuatu.

One shudders what destruction is being wreaked in the country now.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC IS SUED AT 0900 HRS, MARCH 13, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0230 HRS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM IS NOW 200 KILOMETERS NW OF PORT-VILA

The islands of Ambrym and Epi are getting the maximum hammering. Port-Vila is next. The storm is entering it as we speak. For the next six hours it will face winds of 200 kph.

But the worst is in store for the three southern most islands of Vanuatu: Erromango, Tanna and Anatom (Aneitym). Possibly the eye of the storm will pass right through these places. The cyclone will move away from Anatom only at 0300 hours GMT, March 14.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 1130 GMT

AFTER 12 HOURS SUPER CYCLONE PAM WILL ENTER VANUATU. PORT-VILA TO BE HIT AT 0300 GMT, MARCH 13

Many forecasters are saying that super cyclone Pam is going to move east of Vanuatu, hence there is less danger.

This is a dangerous misconception.

Firstly because Pam is huge monster. 600 kilometers core diameter. So even if the eye of the storm passes by a 100-200 kilometers away the winds will be devastating

Secondly, The US navy's JTWC says the storm will pass east (by a couple hundred kilometers) of Vanuatu. The GFS predicts a closer path. Both the European Model and GFS foretell a near direct hit on Port-Vila, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Massive destruction can be expected on these islands.

Thirdly, cyclones by nature are fickle and very unpredictable. Just a month ago everybody was expecting cyclone Marcia off the Queensland coast to be a category 2-3 storm. Instead it turned into a Cat 5 cyclone for a while.

Analyzing the different forecast models, one can safely say that Fiji is totally safe. Vanuatu is in for real trouble. Even parts of New Caledonia will get a thorough lashing.

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS SUPER CYCLONE PAM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS INCLUDING CAPITAL PORT-VILA ON MARCH 13, 2015

NEW ZEALAND NOT TOTALLY SAFE FROM PAM

Some forecasters are already saying New Zealand will not be affected much by Pam (It will be an extra-tropical cyclone then).

But one has to be wary before being so optimistic. GFS predicts a lashing on the east coast of North Island. The European Model forecasts Pam will move even closer to New Zealand on March 16, 2015

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM MOVING VERY CLOSE BY NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 16, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 0500 HOURS GMT

WORST HIT WILL BE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS

Tropical cyclone Pam is about 1025 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. 290 kilometers northeast of Vanuatu's Maewo Island. Sustained wind speeds are 140 kph, gusts up to 180 kph.

Even at this distance the northern islands of the country are witnessing winds of over 60 kph.

In the next 24 hours the storm will move past Penama Province and start affecting the islands of Shefa Province ( Ambrym, Epi and Elate islands).

By night of March 13 (Local Time) Pam will move closest to southern Vanuatu. The province of Tafea will be worst hit. That includes the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. These three islands will face the brunt of the super cyclone's fury. Sustained winds of 200 kph. And our estimates are very conservative. The JTWC predicts much stronger winds.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 1200 HOURS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM NEARING VANUATU

The cyclone is about 425 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo Island, Vanuatu. And 1175 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Wind speeds are 150 kph, gusts up to 180 kilometers. Central Minimum Pressure is 972 Mb. A clear sign that the storm is intensifying.

50+ kph winds are already lashing the islands of Vanuatu. And rainfall has already started in Vanuatu and Fiji. Pam is a very large diameter cyclone. The frightening part is the 'eye' of the storm is going to pass just about 100 kilometers from the islands of Vanuatu. This part of the cyclone will have the worst winds. The so-called 'eye-wall'.

LATEST CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY THE JTWC. ISSUED AT 0900 HOURS, MARCH 11, 2015

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HRS GMT

NEW ZEALAND'S NORTH ISLAND MAY RECEIVE SOME LASHING FROM PASSING SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 16, 2015

Though cyclone Pam is not going to hit New Zealand directly, it may have some effect as it passes by the country on March 16, 2015. The eastern coast of North island will see rough seas and winds in excess of 100 kph. Not to mention the rains. especially affected will be Gisborne and perhaps Rotorua.

FIJI SAFE FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM

It is clear (All forecast models agree) that super cyclone Pam is going to move right through the islands of Vanuatu. This means Fiji will hardly feel any effect of this storm except incessant light showers and winds of about 50 kph as Pam blasts through Vanuatu. Fiji is safe from cyclone Pam.

PARTS OF NEW CALEDONIA MAY GET SOME TAIL LASHING FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 14

Even as cyclone Pam moves south into the Pacific it's outer periphery may give some parts of New Caledonia a lashing on March 14, 2015. Especially Noumea on the southern tip, islands of Ouvea, Lifou, Pins, Tiga and Mare. Winds of about 100 kph and heavy rains.
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UPDATE:MARCH 11, 2015, 0235 GMT

BAD NEWS FOR VANUATU: CYCLONE PAM WILL HAVE WINDS OF 260+ KPH TOMORROW NIGHT

The JTWC has confirmed that super cyclone Pam is going to move very close by the islands of Vanuatu. A near direct hit. Worse still it predicts in its 2100 Hours GMT, March 10 bulletin that on March 12 night Pam will turn into something awful with sustained winds of 260 kph gusting up to a staggering 320 kph. At this time it will be passing the northern islands of Vanuatu. It brings back memories of the devastating cyclone of 1999 that hit the Indian coast of Odisha with winds of nearly 400 kph. 15000 people had died.

The southern islands of Vanuatu will suffer near direct hits on March 13, 2015. That includes the capital Port-Vila. Erromango, Tanna and Anatom will suffer the most

Cyclone Pam is presently 440 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. 1200 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Sustained winds of 150 kph, gusts of 180 kph.

JTWC CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS, MARCH 11, 2015. MORE BAD NEWS. PAM IS GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 260+ KPH, GUSTS 0F 340+ KPH. AND IT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO VANUATU

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UPDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0343 GMT

Bad news for Vanuatu. Super cyclone Pam may move right through the country with devastating winds. The JTWC estimates that on March Pam will reach wind speeds of 240 kph, gusting up to 280 kph. The worst affected islands will be Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Very strong winds exceeding 200+ kph (Gusts will be even more) will hit these islands.

The latest track forecast for the cyclone by JTWC shows the path westwards. The GFS predicts a path even closer to the islands of Vanuatu.

The storm will hit Maewo on March 12 at about 1200 hours GMT and then move south through other islands of Vanuatu in the following 36 hours.

Cyclone Pam is presently about 600 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. Sustained wind speed is 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.

UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Future super cyclone (Category 5) Pam has already been born. It is already throwing out winds of 80 kph. It is about 1400 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji.

In the coming days it is expected to move south. As to its predicted path there seems to some disagreement between the GFS Model and the JTWC. The JTWC says Pam will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji. The GFS foretells a path closer to Vanuatu. Hence if one goes by the GFS forecast, Vanuatu is going to take a bigger hit.

Even if the cyclone moves between Vanuatu and Fiji, this being a very large, powerful cyclone, the impact on these countries will be considerable.

The closer Cyclone Pam moves to either Vanuatu or Fiji, the more damage it will cause there. Cyclone Pam is going to cause a lot of damage. The question is how much.

We shall continue keeping a close watch on the emerging cyclone and note any change in its path.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS): SOURCE- JTWC: ISSUED MARCH 9, 2015, 0900 HOURS GMT

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 2014: LATEST CONTINUOUS UPDATES: Is Intensifying Before It Moves Into Vietnam Late Night

HAGUPIT IS INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM
Update: 0500 HRS GMT, December 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is intensifying now.
Right now it is spewing winds of 70 kph. Presently it lies about 500 kms east of central Vietnam. Contrary to what the JTWC predicts, this storm is intensifying again. It will grow stronger till it hits the Vietnamese coast early hours of Friday (Vietnam Time). At landfall the winds will be about 80-90 kph. Heavy rains are likely in central Vietnam in the next two days. (See Forecast map on right).

In fact, central Vietnam is going to see a lot of rain in the coming 10-12 days. First Hagupit and then another depression that will move in after a week. Parts of central Vietnam will face up to 25 inches of rain. Flooding, perhaps?

See the storm LIVE
See Rain Forecast Maps

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DO NOT WRITE OFF HAGUPIT...YET
Update: 0600 HRS GMT, December 10, 2014

The JTWC had almost washed its hands off Hagupit. Until it intensified again. Presently it lies about 700 kms east of central Vietnam and is throwing out winds of 75 kph.  By tomorrow evening (Vietnam Time) it will make landfall at either Binh Thuan or Ninh Thuan province. Though winds will be sub-cyclone speeds it will be still 55 kph, gusts up to 75 kph. heavy rains are expected in central and southern Vietnam.

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WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN IN NEXT 12 HOURS
Update: 0630 Hours GMT. December 9, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is going to intensify again. 

Hagupit is going to intensify in the coming 12 hours. It may weaken a bit after that but by the time it hits central Vietnam on Thursday night (Vietnam Time) it will be throwing winds of 90 kph. Some other forecasts even hint at the possibility of it going through Vietnam, Thailand and reaching the Indian coast as a depression. Phew! A long way to travel.

See Hagupit Track

But Vietnam is facing a cyclone threat in the coming 72 hours, is certain.

There is a strong possibility that the country may be hit by another tropical storm (JANGMI) on December 15-16. But that is dealt with elsewhere.

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HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE STARTED IN MANILA
Update: 1330  hours GMT, December 8, 2014

The winds are dropping all the time. In fact it is hardly windy in Manila city. The eastern coast of Luzon has strong winds of 75 kph. But it is raining hard in many parts of Luzon. Next 12 hours will see very heavy rains in Manila and Quezon City

It rained heavily in Batangas, Lucena, Tayabas city in the last one hour. It rained heavily in Mindoro  a few hours ago. The rains are shifting north now.

The storm is over Lucena now, 120 kms south-east of Manila City. In a few hours it will pass closest from the city between Calamba and Lipa. Another 6 hours after that and it will leave Filipino shores.

The worry of flooding in Manila is real.The memories of the flood of  September 28, 2009 are still fresh. The heavy rains caused by typhoon Ketsana led to inundation of the metro and 246 people had died. Four-fifths of the city had been submerged under water. Thousands had been displaced.

See animated satellite images of its recent movement HERE
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HEAVY RAINS IN MANILA TODAY
Update: 0330 Hours, GMT, December 8, 2013

The storm is weakening all the time as it moves over the Philippines land mass, Winds have dropped to 100 kph, but the rains continue. Manila is for a thorough drenching in the next 24 hours. The areas of southern Luzon and southern Tagalog (Mindoro) will get the maximum rains.

Hagupit knocking on Manila's door

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RAINS STILL A THREAT
Update: 1400 Hrs GMT, December 7, 2013

The winds are dropping all the time but the JTWC predicts that tomorrow night (Philippines Time) when Hagupit will be passing south of Manila the winds will still be about 120 kph. Presently the storm is near Masbate city with winds of 140 kph. The problem is not the winds but that the slow moving storm is dumping lots of rain on the country. It is going to take 36 hours before it exits Philippines shores.

By the time it reaches southern Vietnam on December 12, it will be below tropical storm strength, just a depression

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HAGUPIT TYPHOON NOW LEAVING SAMAR ISLAND Update: 0330 hours, December 7, 2014

The storm has travelled the Samar Island and is about to leave it. It has weakened a little but still has 170 kph winds. It will now move to Legazpi city and Masbate Island.

According to the JTWC it will take another two days to move through Philippines. When it moves close to Manila tomorrow evening (local time), the winds  will be still 120-150 kph.

Hagupit Will Go To Vietnam Too

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph

See Latest Track Forecast Map
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THE 'EYE' HAS HIT PHILIPPINES AT SAMAR (BETWEEN BORONGON AND TAFT)

Update: 1400 Hrs, December 6, 2014

Typhoon Hagupit has hit Philippines at Samar Island between Borongon City and Taft. The landfall happened slightly south than was earlier expected. Ground Zero is 100 kms NE of Tacloban. The storm had winds of 200 kph, gusts to 250 kph on impact.

When the eye will pass  through Samar island the winds will drop dramatically. The rains may cease or turn into a drizzle. But this will be a period of deceptive calm. Within a hour the howling will start again as the other half of the diameter will pass. Samar is in for a good hiding tonight. It is already facing very strong winds and drenching rains.

The storm will pack winds of 140-165 kph even on Monday-Tuesday as it leaves Philippines. A powerful storm.

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THE STORM HAS HARDLY MOVED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS: TYPHOON JANGMI AFTER HAGUPIT?
Update: 1000 hours GMT, December 6, 2014

It seems as if it was deciding which direction to go to. Searching for conditions which will favor it. Yes. Typhoon Hagupit has remained almost stationary in the last 3 hours.

Forecast models mostly say it will make landfall at north Samar tonight (or early morning tomorrow). Winds at time of impact will be about 185 kph. It will then move though Bicol and then on to Mindoro and Luzon over the next 2-3 days. The city of Legazpi will face a direct hit.

Because it is slow moving it will throw down more precipitation and expose the country to strong winds for a longer period.

Already a part of the diameter of the storm has already entered Philippines.

Another piece of bad news for Philippines. Latest GFS  forecasts indicate of another typhoon hitting the country around December 14, 2014. Typhoon JANGMI will be smaller than Hagupit but one storm after another in a few days! The mind boggles.

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HAGUPIT'S PERIPHERY IS TOUCHING PHILIPPINES NOW
Update: 0500 Hrs GMT, December 6, 2014

Right now Typhoon Hagupit's outer boundary is touching Samar Island. Wind speed is 210 kph, gusts up to 260 kph. The storm is weakening.

Most forecasts say that  the storm will curve slightly upwards. The worst affected areas will be Samar, Bicol, Tagalog. The typhoon will move over these areas in the next 48 hours. The wind speeds will gradually decrease as it does so. But Manila will have 140 kph winds on Monday when Hagupit reaches it.

See the video below to know where and when will it rain as the storm moves through the Philippines. The forecast is valid from Saturday (December 6, 2014) to Tuesday (December 9, 2014)

VIDEO: Rain Forecast Owing to Hagupit (Saturday to Tuesday)

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HAGUPIT TO GROW STRONGER IN NEXT 12 HOURS TO 250 KMPH (GUSTS 300 KMPH)

Update: December 5, 2014: 1430 Hours GMT

The fears of the people of Philippines are well-founded. Typhoon Hagupit had weakened slightly in the last six hours, but latest indications are it is going to intensify even more in the coming 12 hours. 250 Kmph, with gusts up to 300 Kmph. A Category 5 hurricane without doubt.

The only silver lining  (If one may say so) is that when the typhoon passes Samar Island Sunday morning winds will drop to 210 Kmph. This is a slow moving storm, which makes it even more lethal. Strong winds for longer periods and more rainfall dumped over an area.

The word "landfall" is for met guys. It means the "eye" of the cyclone moves aver a particular area. For  the people who will face the storm it is a technical irrelevancy. The eye of Hagupit is about 300 kms from the Philippines coast of Samar, but the lashing has already started as the periphery of this huge storm has already started moving in.

The latest forecast bulletin by the JTWC issued at 1500 Hrs today (December 5, 2014) predicts the brunt of the storm will be felt in Eastern Visayas, Bikol and Southern Tagalog. A relentless hammering by 200-250 kph winds. Come Monday evening (local time) and Manila will get a direct hit with 130-170 kph winds.

Philippines is in for hard times in the next 72 hours

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HAGUPIT WILL HIT EAST VISAYAS (PHILIPPINES) TOMORROW (LOCAL TIME) WITH 200 KMPH WINDS

Update: December 5, 2014: 0300 Hrs GMT

It is almost certain now that Typhoon Hagupit will enter Philippines at Eastern Visayas tomorrow morning (Philippines Time). The wind speeds then will be 200 Kmph, gusts up to 250 Kmph. The typhoon is weakening from its peak strength yesterday (It is below super typhoon grade now) but it will still be a formidable storm when it hits Philippines tomorrow.

The areas that will  be worst affected will be Eastern Visayas, and parts of central Visayas, west Visayas and Bikol. After hitting the country the typhoon is going to move in a  NW direction for the next 48 hours. That is the worrying part. The storm is going to move over the country slowly, lingering on till Monday morning. With such winds, in two days, it could wreak havoc.

The worst affected islands will be Samar, Leyte, Bikol, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro.

By the time it exits Philippines from the Mimiropa area it will be considerably weakened. This is the scenario on which the GFS and ECMWF Models agree.

The JTWC predicts a slightly northerly course. Hitting Bikol and then moving through Luzon. According to it, Hagupit will move over Philippines for three days; Till Tuesday. On Tuesday morning Manila will experience 115-140 Kmph winds.

The storm on entering the South China Sea will face the colder waters along the mainland Asian coast and so will not be able to intensify much again. It will move on to Vietnam on December 12, 2014 as a weak storm. Winds of 60-80 Kmph.

At 1200 Hrs GMT yesterday, according to NOAA readings, Hagupit was a Dvorak 8 Hurricane. That is a Category 5 hurricane.

The central pressure at 0600 Hrs GMT, December 5, 2014: 941 Mb. A Big storm, in short. But the central pressure is increasing, a sign that the typhoon is weakening.

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PHILIPPINES WILL BE HIT: POINT AND TIME OF IMPACT: EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS

Update: December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT

All the forecast models agree. Philippines will be hit on Saturday. The GFS model (along with the JTWC) say now that the country will suffer a direct assault by this monster created by nature. The ECMWF model has been saying all the time that super typhoon Hagupit would hit Philippines.

The models disagree only on the areas of the country which will bear the brunt of the storm.

The GFS says the worst affected will be East Visayas, Bikol and Luzon (Including Manila). The European model predicts a 'Haiyan' path. Piercing through the Visayas (East, Central and Western). That means Tacloban is in for another lashing. In short the GFS (and JTWC) predict northern Philippines will be worst hit. The ECMWF says central Philippines.

In fact, the European model says Hagupit will go on to Vietnam on December 11, 2014. The GFS forecasts its dissipation over northern Philippines.

Time Of Impact will be Saturday morning (December 6, 2014) Philippines time.

Wind speed at impact will be 230 Kmph (Eastern Visaya) gusts up to 280 Kmph. At Bikol the wind will be 215 Kmph, gusting up to 260 Kmph. When it passes by Manila on Monday the winds will be 160 Kmph (Gusts: 200 Kmph).

These are latest estimates (December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT)  by the JTWC, which are generally reliable. If this happnes!

Present location: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 11 Degrees North, 131.3 Degrees East.

Present Wind Speed: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 280 Kmph (Gusts - 335 Kmph)

1130 GMT: December 4, 2014: Today

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SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS WINDS OF 290 KMPH NOW: A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

Update: December 4, 2014: 0330 Hrs: GMT

It is Mother Earth at her angriest. Or call it nature gone mad. Massive super typhoon HAGUPIT is howling right now with winds of 290 Kmph. Gusts up to 315 Kmph. And it is going to get worse. The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow the winds will go up to 315 Kmph (sustained winds), gusts up to a mammoth 380 Kmph. These are readings by NOAA.

WHAT DO THE LEADING FORECAST MODELS SAY? AN ANALYSIS

The storm lay about 400 Kms NNE of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Latitude: 9.8 N. Longitude: 133.9 E. The storm is moving slowly. By  Monday morning it will come near the Philippines at East Visayas, then curve NW and move along the coast at Bikol. Though the eye of the storm will not pass through these areas the periphery will. And this will cause massive destruction. The island of Catanduanes will be badly affected. On Monday it will swing away from the Philippines, move NNE and then dissipate on Wednesday.

Both the JTWC and GFS more or less agree on the above mentioned scenario.

The ECMWF model still begs to differ. It says Hagupit will hit central Philippines on late Friday night (December 5, 2014) Philippines time, and go right through. It will then hit Vietnam on Thursday, December 11. It says Hagupit will weaken slightly when it crosses Philippines but gain strength again in the warm waters of the South China Sea. When it strikes Vietnam, it will be a big bad storm. That is if this forecast is vindicated, two countries are going to face vast devastation.

One does not get a storm like Hagupit frequently. If the JTWC predictions come true I think wind speeds of 380 Kmph is going to feature in the hall of infamous records.

The JMA Model (Japanese Meteorological Agency) largely agrees with the European model. Storm goes through Philippines onto Vietnam.

The US Navy's NAVGEM Model says the super typhoon is going to enter Philippines (At Bikol) on Saturday and then keep hammering north Philippines for three days. A doomsday scenario.

The GEM Model agrees with the NAVGEM; Only that Hagupit will enter Philippines a day later, on Sunday. And that northern Philippines will get a unholy hammering for 2-3 days after that.

HAGUPIT  NEAR PHILIPPINES ON MONDAY

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EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT HEADED TO VIETNAM

Update: December 3, 2014: 0930 Hrs GMT

At 0600 hours (GMT) today Hagupit lay 400 Kms East-North-East of Palau (Lat: 8.3 N, Long: 138.6 E). Winds were 100 knots (185 Kmph).

Meanwhile, the latest GFS forecast issued at 0600 hrs (GMT) today maintains Philippines is safe. The typhoon will  not make landfall into Philippines. It will change direction on Saturday and move north along the coast. We believe this forecast will be vindicated on Saturday. At least for the sake of Philippines (And Vietnam).

The latest forecast issued by the ECMWF persists with its earlier predictions. It says Hagupit is going to hit central Philippines on Saturday. And then pass through, go into the South China Sea and hit Vietnam on December 11, 2014.

If this really happens Philippines is in for big trouble. Hagupit is slowly turning into a monster cyclone. The devastation that it could wreak upon central Philippines (Tacloban again?) boggles the imagination.

On the other hand the latest from the JTWC (These three really matter when it comes to predicting cyclones: GFS, ECMWF and JTWC) seems to be veering around to what the GFS is saying; That Hagupit will slant north and move along the Filipino coast and not hit it. The track shows a definite curving on Saturday.

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UK METOFFICE SAYS TARGET IS BIKOL, DEC. 9
Update: Dec. 3, 2014. 0600 Hrs GMT

Amongst all the hullabaloo about the American and European forecast models everybody seems to have forgotten about the UKMO model. Yes, the UK Met Office too has its own forecast model and what does it say about the future of super typhoon Hagupit?

It says the storm will near the Philippines and hover around for two or three days then enter the country on December 9 (Tuesday) at Bikol area. It will be quite strong then.

Here is the track of Hagupit by UKMO.

 VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 03.12.2014   7.4N 139.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 03.12.2014   9.0N 136.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 04.12.2014  10.4N 134.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 04.12.2014  11.2N 132.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 05.12.2014  11.5N 131.2E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 05.12.2014  11.4N 130.7E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 06.12.2014  11.1N 130.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 06.12.2014  11.0N 129.8E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 07.12.2014  10.8N 129.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.12.2014  11.4N 128.0E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.12.2014  12.4N 126.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.12.2014  12.8N 124.9E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.12.2014  13.0N 123.7E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

SATELLITE IMAGE OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT TAKEN AT 0000 HRS TODAY GMT

UPDATE: DECEMBER 3, 2014: FORECAST MODELS STILL DIFFER: DANGER TO VIETNAM TOO?

Forecast models still differ as to what will Haupit do next. Will it cross through Philippines and go on to hit Vietnam? Or will it disintegrate near the coast of Philippines? Meanwhile the typhoon grows stronger and creeps closer to Philippines. JTWC opines that in the next 60 hours it will turn into a howling super typhoon with winds gusting up to a staggering 300 Kmph.

Typhoon HAGUPIT lay 1000 Kms from the Philippines coast, 450 Kms east of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Wind speed is about 170 Kmph. It is moving in a WNW direction. In the next 48 hours it will intensify rapidly to a super typhoon with speed of 240 Kmph, gusting up to 300 Kmph.

By Friday-Saturday midnight (Philippines time) it will be 450 Kms east of East Visaya. It will at its strongest then. Winds of 240 Kmph.

After that, what? There is a sharp difference on that.

One forecast model (GFS) says it will start curving north and move along the Philippines coast for the next three days. It further says it will dissipate rapidly on December 9 near north Philippines Cagayan region.

The European Model (ECMWF) says the typhoon will hit central Philippines on December 5-6 and move through it (East, Central, West Visayas, Palawan), It will cross over to the South China Sea and go on and strike central Vietnam on December 9, 2014.

Both the models agree on the intensity of the storm. Both say the central pressure will be about 955 mb.

HAGUPIT TYPHOON 2014: PREDICTED TRACKS/PATH

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: GFS MODEL STILL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HOVER AROUND PHILIPPINES THEN MOVE NORTH

The GFS forecast modal (Also the Special GFS Model) in its latest predictions still maintains that Philippines will be safe. Typhoon Hagupit will come near the coast of the country on late Saturday, hover around and move north. It will not hit Philippines. It will coast along the Philippines shores, dangerously close, for 48 hours, till Monday then move north.

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HIT PHILIPPINES

Everybody is confused. The GFS forecast model says Typhoon Hagupit will not make landfall in Philippines but steer north. The European ECMWF model's latest bulletin says the storm will hit central Philippines on Saturday night. It further says it will cross the country and then move over to Vietnam on December 10, 2014. The JTWC is playing it safe and not taking any position. There are  other models like the GEM, CMC, and NAVGEM but we have seen from experience that they are not so reliable. And we do not want to waste your time by going into educational intricacies.

We tend to be partial to the GFS forecast model and so have said that Philippines will remain safe from the monster of a storm. The JTWC predicts Hagupit will be a super typhoon with speeds of 240 Kmph gusting up to a massive 300 Kmph on Sunday (Dec 6, Philippines time) morning.

Scary.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: WINDS ARE 90 KMPH NOW

The American model says the typhoon will not hit Philippines. The European forecast model in its last bulletin said that it would hit Philippines and then go onto Vietnam. We await the latest news from the European model. We shall inform you as soon as we get any sort of information.

Typhoon Hagupit lies at latitude 5.9 N, longitude 147 E, about 900 kms south of Guam. In the next days it is going to intensify rapidly. On Friday (December 5) night (Philippines Time) it will be 550 Kms from Eastern Visayas. Winds will be 195 Kmph gusting up to 230 Kmph.

After December 5, 2014, the storm will start curving northwards. It will not hit Philippines, but in the next two days it will move along the coast, a few hundred kilometers far. 

By December 9-10 it will start dissipating rapidly as it meets the colder waters near the coast of Japan.

The island of Yap will face the fury of Hagupit tomorrow night with 155-195 Kmph winds.

LATEST GFS TRACK OF HAGUPIT TYPHOON. IT WILL NOT HIT PHILIPPINES

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UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: "HAGUPIT" HAS FORMED: CALLED STORM 22W

Future typhoon Hagupit has already formed. It lies at Latitude 4.9 North, Longitude 152.1 East at 0600 Hrs GMT. It has wind speeds of 65 Kmph already.

Side note: The word HAGUPIT in the Filipino language Tagalog means "thrashing". Very apt.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: HAGUPIT TO BE A SUPER TYPHOON: BANSI MAY BE STILL BORN

Upcoming super typhoon HAGUPIT is going to give the people of Philippines sleepless nights. By December 6 it will be swirling as a massive storm a few hundred kilometers from the coast of the country. With the memories of HAIYAN still raw in Filipino minds, one can understand the trepidity.

But the good news (at least for now) is that the typhoon will move away from Philippines on December 6, 2014 and head northwards. But there are five more days to go and our man Hagupit will be as unpredictable as all storms are.

Forecast models are divided. One says it will hit central Philippines (The area Sinlaku passed through) on December 6-7.

Another says it will first move towards the country then swing north and away. But even if this happens it will pass by Philippines just a few hundred kms from the coast.

Let us wait and watch.

BANSI WILL BE STILL BORN: ONCE AGAIN

We had predicted another cyclone to form; this one in the south Indian ocean. But it seems that one too will be still born. It will remain a depression. The name "Bansi" is not going to be used for some more time. One wonders why the storms in the southern Indian ocean are so weak, while the northern part of the ocean throws up monsters like Phailin, Hudhud and the infamous cyclone of 1999 in the Bay of Bengal.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 30, 2014

Both the tropical storms "2S" and "Sinlaku" are dissipating presently but two more storms are on the horizon. Cyclone Bansi will form in the South Indian Ocean on December 3-4, 2014  WSW of Indonesia and move towards Australia. Typhoon "Hagupit" will be born a couple of thousand kms east of Philippines deep in the Pacific.

Bansi will reach cyclone status on December 4. It will turn into a powerful storm but will move towards Australia and start disintegrating by December 5, 2014. Away from any inhabited land it will go largely unnoticed barring by the ships that traverse the Indian ocean.

Hagupit is another super typhoon in the making. It will become a tropical storm on December 3, 2014 and start intensifying into something mammoth. Present indications are it will not move into Philippines but curve towards Japan on December 7, 2014.