SUPER CYCLONE PAM (17P) 2015: Latest Updates: PASSING NEW ZEALAND NOW

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0330 HRS GMT

EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING EAST CAPE NOW

The storm is 110 kilometres north-east of Gisborne and just 50 kilometres from the coast of New Zealand. Sustained winds of 80+ kph are lashing Gisborne now. Gusts are 110 kph. The sea is very rough. Wave height is 7-8 metres in the coast of east Cape.

The southern coast of South Island is peaceful now. But that will change as Pam moves south. The entire southern coast of the country from Christchurch to Gisborne will face winds of 50 kph for another 48 hours. Seas will remain rough tilll March 18, 2015 afternoon (NZ Time). Expect 6 metres waves for another 48 hours.

The incessant showers will start ceasing after 24 hours.

But the New Zealand island of Chathams which is 680 kms from South Island is in for rough wet weather for another 60 hours. The present 60 kph winds will rise to 80-90 kph before tapering off on March 20, 2015.

UPDATE: MARCH 15, 2015. 0300 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS 500 KILOMETRES FROM NEW ZEALAND COAST

The storm is now about 500 kilometres north of Paihia, North Island. Sustained winds of 125 kph. Winds of 60 kph are already hitting the northern parts of North Island.

In the coming hours Pam will pass close by Gisborne area which will experience heavy rains and 80+ kph winds. Showers are expected all over New Zealand, especially on North Island. Heaviest in East Cape.

The effects of Pam will wear off on March 17, 2015 as the storm will move away from the country to the south.

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0830 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING BY NEW CALEDONIA

The storm has departed the shores of Vanuatu. Heavens alone knows what destruction it has left in its wake.

Presently the storm is passing 340 kilometers east of Noumea, New Caledonia and heading rapidly south clocking 20 kph. Even now it is still one hell of a storm. Sustained winds of 160 kph, gusts up to 190 kph.

NEW ZEALAND IN TROUBLE AS PAM WILL COME QUITE CLOSE ON MARCH 17, 2015

There is bad news for New Zealand. Earlier predictions said cyclone Pam would not pass by the country close. But latest forecasts say otherwise. Pam is going to pass less than 100 kilometers away from the East Cape. Just 160 kilometers from Gisborne.

And even on March 17 Pam will have sustained winds of 120 kph. The eastern coast of North Island will start to face winds of 60 kph (Including Auckland) from March 15, 2015. The coastal areas, including Whakatane and Tauranga will have 80 kph winds. Incessant moderate to heavy rains expected in the entire North Island from March 15-17.

CYCLONE PAM VISITING NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 15, 2015

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT, MARCH 14

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 1130 HRS GMT

PORT-VILA BEING BATTERED: ERROMANGO, TANNA, AMATOM NEXT

Super cyclone Pam is passing less than 100 kilometers east of Port-Vila as we write. Our conservative sustained wind speeds estimate is 180 kph, gusts up to 220 kph. The JTWC says 260 kph, gusts up to 320 kph.

A horrendous phenomenon. Hell on Earth. Nature gone crazy.

In the coming hours the southern most Vanuatu Islands will face Pam's frenzy. The nightmare that Vanuatu is experiencing will start abating from 0600 hours, March 14, 2015 as Pam will move south away from the waters of Vanuatu.

One shudders what destruction is being wreaked in the country now.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC IS SUED AT 0900 HRS, MARCH 13, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0230 HRS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM IS NOW 200 KILOMETERS NW OF PORT-VILA

The islands of Ambrym and Epi are getting the maximum hammering. Port-Vila is next. The storm is entering it as we speak. For the next six hours it will face winds of 200 kph.

But the worst is in store for the three southern most islands of Vanuatu: Erromango, Tanna and Anatom (Aneitym). Possibly the eye of the storm will pass right through these places. The cyclone will move away from Anatom only at 0300 hours GMT, March 14.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 1130 GMT

AFTER 12 HOURS SUPER CYCLONE PAM WILL ENTER VANUATU. PORT-VILA TO BE HIT AT 0300 GMT, MARCH 13

Many forecasters are saying that super cyclone Pam is going to move east of Vanuatu, hence there is less danger.

This is a dangerous misconception.

Firstly because Pam is huge monster. 600 kilometers core diameter. So even if the eye of the storm passes by a 100-200 kilometers away the winds will be devastating

Secondly, The US navy's JTWC says the storm will pass east (by a couple hundred kilometers) of Vanuatu. The GFS predicts a closer path. Both the European Model and GFS foretell a near direct hit on Port-Vila, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Massive destruction can be expected on these islands.

Thirdly, cyclones by nature are fickle and very unpredictable. Just a month ago everybody was expecting cyclone Marcia off the Queensland coast to be a category 2-3 storm. Instead it turned into a Cat 5 cyclone for a while.

Analyzing the different forecast models, one can safely say that Fiji is totally safe. Vanuatu is in for real trouble. Even parts of New Caledonia will get a thorough lashing.

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS SUPER CYCLONE PAM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS INCLUDING CAPITAL PORT-VILA ON MARCH 13, 2015

NEW ZEALAND NOT TOTALLY SAFE FROM PAM

Some forecasters are already saying New Zealand will not be affected much by Pam (It will be an extra-tropical cyclone then).

But one has to be wary before being so optimistic. GFS predicts a lashing on the east coast of North Island. The European Model forecasts Pam will move even closer to New Zealand on March 16, 2015

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM MOVING VERY CLOSE BY NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 16, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 0500 HOURS GMT

WORST HIT WILL BE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS

Tropical cyclone Pam is about 1025 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. 290 kilometers northeast of Vanuatu's Maewo Island. Sustained wind speeds are 140 kph, gusts up to 180 kph.

Even at this distance the northern islands of the country are witnessing winds of over 60 kph.

In the next 24 hours the storm will move past Penama Province and start affecting the islands of Shefa Province ( Ambrym, Epi and Elate islands).

By night of March 13 (Local Time) Pam will move closest to southern Vanuatu. The province of Tafea will be worst hit. That includes the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. These three islands will face the brunt of the super cyclone's fury. Sustained winds of 200 kph. And our estimates are very conservative. The JTWC predicts much stronger winds.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 1200 HOURS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM NEARING VANUATU

The cyclone is about 425 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo Island, Vanuatu. And 1175 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Wind speeds are 150 kph, gusts up to 180 kilometers. Central Minimum Pressure is 972 Mb. A clear sign that the storm is intensifying.

50+ kph winds are already lashing the islands of Vanuatu. And rainfall has already started in Vanuatu and Fiji. Pam is a very large diameter cyclone. The frightening part is the 'eye' of the storm is going to pass just about 100 kilometers from the islands of Vanuatu. This part of the cyclone will have the worst winds. The so-called 'eye-wall'.

LATEST CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY THE JTWC. ISSUED AT 0900 HOURS, MARCH 11, 2015

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HRS GMT

NEW ZEALAND'S NORTH ISLAND MAY RECEIVE SOME LASHING FROM PASSING SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 16, 2015

Though cyclone Pam is not going to hit New Zealand directly, it may have some effect as it passes by the country on March 16, 2015. The eastern coast of North island will see rough seas and winds in excess of 100 kph. Not to mention the rains. especially affected will be Gisborne and perhaps Rotorua.

FIJI SAFE FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM

It is clear (All forecast models agree) that super cyclone Pam is going to move right through the islands of Vanuatu. This means Fiji will hardly feel any effect of this storm except incessant light showers and winds of about 50 kph as Pam blasts through Vanuatu. Fiji is safe from cyclone Pam.

PARTS OF NEW CALEDONIA MAY GET SOME TAIL LASHING FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 14

Even as cyclone Pam moves south into the Pacific it's outer periphery may give some parts of New Caledonia a lashing on March 14, 2015. Especially Noumea on the southern tip, islands of Ouvea, Lifou, Pins, Tiga and Mare. Winds of about 100 kph and heavy rains.
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UPDATE:MARCH 11, 2015, 0235 GMT

BAD NEWS FOR VANUATU: CYCLONE PAM WILL HAVE WINDS OF 260+ KPH TOMORROW NIGHT

The JTWC has confirmed that super cyclone Pam is going to move very close by the islands of Vanuatu. A near direct hit. Worse still it predicts in its 2100 Hours GMT, March 10 bulletin that on March 12 night Pam will turn into something awful with sustained winds of 260 kph gusting up to a staggering 320 kph. At this time it will be passing the northern islands of Vanuatu. It brings back memories of the devastating cyclone of 1999 that hit the Indian coast of Odisha with winds of nearly 400 kph. 15000 people had died.

The southern islands of Vanuatu will suffer near direct hits on March 13, 2015. That includes the capital Port-Vila. Erromango, Tanna and Anatom will suffer the most

Cyclone Pam is presently 440 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. 1200 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Sustained winds of 150 kph, gusts of 180 kph.

JTWC CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS, MARCH 11, 2015. MORE BAD NEWS. PAM IS GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 260+ KPH, GUSTS 0F 340+ KPH. AND IT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO VANUATU

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UPDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0343 GMT

Bad news for Vanuatu. Super cyclone Pam may move right through the country with devastating winds. The JTWC estimates that on March Pam will reach wind speeds of 240 kph, gusting up to 280 kph. The worst affected islands will be Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Very strong winds exceeding 200+ kph (Gusts will be even more) will hit these islands.

The latest track forecast for the cyclone by JTWC shows the path westwards. The GFS predicts a path even closer to the islands of Vanuatu.

The storm will hit Maewo on March 12 at about 1200 hours GMT and then move south through other islands of Vanuatu in the following 36 hours.

Cyclone Pam is presently about 600 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. Sustained wind speed is 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.

UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Future super cyclone (Category 5) Pam has already been born. It is already throwing out winds of 80 kph. It is about 1400 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji.

In the coming days it is expected to move south. As to its predicted path there seems to some disagreement between the GFS Model and the JTWC. The JTWC says Pam will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji. The GFS foretells a path closer to Vanuatu. Hence if one goes by the GFS forecast, Vanuatu is going to take a bigger hit.

Even if the cyclone moves between Vanuatu and Fiji, this being a very large, powerful cyclone, the impact on these countries will be considerable.

The closer Cyclone Pam moves to either Vanuatu or Fiji, the more damage it will cause there. Cyclone Pam is going to cause a lot of damage. The question is how much.

We shall continue keeping a close watch on the emerging cyclone and note any change in its path.