Read Latest updates on cyclone Nathan
UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0400 HRS GMT
CYCLONE NATHAN IS 250 KILOMETRES NORTH OF WILLIS ISLAND NOW
It is 530 kilometres north-east of Cairns on the Australian coast of Queensland. Sustained winds of 110 kph.
In the next 48 hours the storm is going to make a U-turn and head back to the coast of Queensland. Opinions differ amongst various forecast model. The GFS predicts landfall on the evening of March 19, 2015 between Cairns and Townsville.
The European Model says it will hit Cooktown on March 20. It is likely that the Australian Willis Island, which has an monitoring station of the Australian Met, may be visited by the storm.
The Queensland coast is going to face a situation of cyclone Nathan making landfall with 140 kph winds on the morning of March 19, 2015.(Thursday).
The entire stretch of the coast from Cooktown to Mackay is in for torrential rains and strong winds on Thursday
UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0930 HRS GMT
NATHAN WILL COME BACK AND HIT QUEENSLAND AGAIN ON MARCH 19, 2015
Tropical cyclones are by nature very unpredictable. Cyclone Nathan proves the adage again. Earlier forecasts said the storm would intensify and move over to New Caledonia or Vanuatu.
But no! It has changes its mind again. Latest predictions are the presently weak Nathan will start intensifying rapidly again, turn a circle in the Coral Sea and come back and hit the coast of Queensland hard on March 19, 2015, north of Townsville with winds of 150+ kph.
But considering the moody nature of Nathan we have to wait a couple of days and see what he does next.
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| LATEST FORECASTS SAY CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HIT QUEENSLAND ON MARCH 19, 2015 |
UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0630 HRS GMT
CYCLONE NATHAN IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE QUEENSLAND COAST
The storm has winds of 90 kph. In the coming days it is going to further intensify. Forecasts say it is headed to southern Vanuatu. It will reach them on March 18, 2015. And worse still it is going to potter around for the next five days. A ghastly scenario. A significant cyclone hangs around in the same place for five days. And that too the area super cyclone Pam will batter in the coming 24 hours.
Bad times indeed for southern Vanuatu
UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015, 0630 GMT
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HOVER NEAR COAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
It is presently 360 kilometers north of Cairns. 200 kilometers north of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. It will stay nearly stationary for another 24 hours. After that it will intensify and fall back and move away from the Queensland coast.
Even now it has sustained winds of 80+ kph. And it is raining in the entire Cape York Peninsula with heavier showers on the coastal areas.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 1230 HOURS GMT
NATHAN HAS INTENSIFIED TO A 90 KPH STORM
Cyclone Nathan is about 200 kilometers north-north-east of Cooktown, Queensland. And about 350 kilometers north (approx.) of Cairns. Sustained wind speeds are 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. Winds of 55 kph are already lashing Cooktown. They are slightly less at Cairns. About 40 kph.
In the next 12 hours Nathan will creep closer to Cooktown. The 'eye' of the storm will lie practically over the town. After that it will slowly inch away into the Coral Sea on March 13.
The prospect of Nathan with its 100 kph winds hanging around close to the Cooktown coast for about 36-48 hours will not be pleasant.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HOURS GMT
CYCLONE NATHAN MAY HIT NEW CALEDONIA ON MARCH 19, 2015
It is generally agreed that tropical cyclone Nathan will not make landfall into Queensland but swing back into the Coral Sea on March 13, 2015. What is not widely known is that after that the cyclone may hit New Caledonia Island on March 19, 2015 as a significant storm. Possibly a category 3 cyclone.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 0330 HOURS GMT
BAD NEWS FOR QUEENSLAND: NATHAN IS GOING TO STAY NEAR STATIONARY NEAR COAST FOR 48 HOURS, MARCH 11-13, 2015
A tropical cyclone passing over any region is bad enough. But if it just hovers almost motionless for 48 hours, that is reason for big concern. Cyclone Nathan is going to do just that near the Queensland coast at Cooktown. It will just stand there touching the coast from March 11-13. After that it will fall back into the Coral Sea. It will not make landfall into Queensland.
Right now it is slowly moving towards the Australian coast. It is about 210 kilometers north-east of Cooktown, 340 kilometers north-north-east of Cairns. It is already throwing winds of 85 kph gusts up to 110 kph. Cooktown and Cairns are facing winds of about 50 kph right now. And heavy rains have already started in these two towns. And they will continue for another two days.
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| TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN |
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| CYCLONE NATHAN AT 0600 HRS GMT, MARCH 11, 2015 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL FORM TODAY OFF QUEENSLAND
The South-West Pacific has got busy. After spawning super cyclone Pam, the Coral Sea will give birth to cyclone Nathan after nine hours today.
Future cyclone Nathan is a depression now termed 95P by NOAA. It is hovering around near the coast of Queensland, Australia.
By 1500 GMT today it will have intensified into a cyclone. By late evening on Thursday it will have intensified into a Category 3 storm and reached the Queensland coast at Cooktown in southern Cape York Peninsula.
But it will not make landfall. Instead it will swing back into the Coral Sea.
As to its future after that, the American GFS Forecast System predicts it will go on to hit the southern islands of Vanuatu on March 16, 2015. One must keep in mind that Vanuatu is expecting a near direct hit from the massive tropical cyclone Pam in the coming two days.
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| THIS IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA |
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