Cyclone Nathan To Make Landfall Into Arnhem Land In Coming Hours

See VIDEO: Nathan in Northern Territory. March 2015
See Tropical Cyclone Nathan LIVE

Update: March 23, 2015

CYCLONE NATHAN TO HIT ARNHEM LAND IN COMING HOURS: LITTLE EFFECT ON DARWIN

Tropical cyclone Nathan has traveled a long way in the recent past. It is now hovering in the Arafura Sea off the coast of Northern Territory, Australia.

Presently it packs quite a punch with winds of 85 kmph. But in the next 24 hours it is going to make landfall into Arnhem Land and weaken.

By the time it reaches Darwin it will have weakened considerably and only bring some showers to the city. But it will remain windy for the next couple of days.

The JTWC in contrast says the storm will be quite powerful when it moves past Darwin with winds of 65 kmph on March 25 (Darwin Time). But we beg to differ.

But it will strengthen a little to a depression again when it enters the Indian Ocean on March 26, 2015. It will not regain its cyclone strength.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT, MARCH 23, 2015, SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO ARNHEM LAND IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY

THE JTWC BELIEVES NATHAN WILL THROW UP WINDS OF 65 KMPH WHEN IT PASSES DARWIN. BUT THAT SEEMS IMPROBABLE.

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Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to intensify and hit Cooktown on the Queensland coast of Australia on the night of March 19-20. The storm will then move across northern Queensland and enter the Gulf of Carpentaria. Nathan is going to travel a long way.

The cyclone is presently 400 kilometers east of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. A significant storm, it is spewing sustained winds of 85 kmph. Gusts up to 100 kmph.

It is moving west gradually. In the coming days it will intensify to peak wind speeds of 140 kmph. It will weaken a little at the time of landfall at Cooktown, Queensland on the night of March 19-20, 2015 (Thursday-Friday). Expected sustained winds at landfall are 125 kmph.

Nathan will then travel across northern Queensland  and enter sea again into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday morning (Australian Time). It will be quite a storm then with wind speeds of 85 kmph. It will intensify again to 100 kmph when it passes through Groote Eylandt in the Gulf.

Quite a storm!

On March 22 it will make landfall into Northern Territory. Into Arnhem Land. But it will have weakened considerably by them. Even then it might bring showers to Darwin on March 24, 2015.

Read More On Tropical Cyclone Nathan

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE NATHAN. BY THE TIME IT NEARS DARWIN IT WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE AREA

Personal Account Of Super Cyclone Pam, 2015

Vanuatu Oxfam country director Collett van Rooyen wrote about the experience for the charity, describing the moment the cyclone hit.

 "We knew (almost) exactly where she was and what her most likely next move would be and we knew that she would only reveal to us her secrets as she arrived over us," she wrote.

 "...Regular radio announcements in calm tones; traditional Vanuatu string-band music in between statements of how harsh things may be when she gets to us. 

"All a bit surreal really. The cyclone shutters boarding up our windows and doors start to shudder, at first gently and irregularly and then faster and constant. Pam is now moving in, getting closer to us at a rate of 10, 15, 20 kilometers per hour.

 " Her eye moves at an astounding speed, creating wind forces of unimaginable speeds. "Can you imagine 'over 200km an hour'? I couldn't at the time. But I could hear it. I now know the sound of 200km per hour or more, and I don't think I would willingly subject myself to it again. Pam arrived announced by the drum roll of our shutters. Then she roared, she squealed, she hissed. She spat and cursed in deep bass tones, and at the same time she whistled and screeched in ways that messed with our senses. What was that we just heard? 

"Someone outside screaming? The high-pitched string band notes we had heard earlier on the radio? No, the radio was off and people had taken shelter. It was Pam in her many voices. She spoke a language of essential fear at its most primitive and we understood it instantly."

VIDEO: Aftermath of cyclone Pam at Port-Vila, Vanuatu

Text and Video Source: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/cyclone-pam-roared-squealed-hissed-as-it-hit-20150315-144f01.html

Tropical Cyclone NATHAN (95P) Latest Updates: WILL HIT QUEENSLAND COAST MARCH 19, 2015

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Read Latest updates on cyclone Nathan

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0400 HRS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN IS 250 KILOMETRES NORTH OF WILLIS ISLAND NOW

It is 530 kilometres north-east of Cairns on the Australian coast of Queensland. Sustained winds of 110 kph.

In the next 48 hours the storm is going to make a U-turn and head back to the coast of Queensland. Opinions differ amongst various forecast model. The GFS predicts landfall on the evening of March 19, 2015 between Cairns and Townsville.

The European Model says it will hit Cooktown on March 20. It is likely that the Australian Willis Island, which has an monitoring station of the Australian Met, may be visited by the storm.

The Queensland coast is going to face a situation of cyclone Nathan making landfall with 140 kph winds on the morning of March 19, 2015.(Thursday).

The entire stretch of the coast from Cooktown to Mackay is in for torrential rains and strong winds on Thursday

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0930 HRS GMT

NATHAN WILL COME BACK AND HIT QUEENSLAND AGAIN ON MARCH 19, 2015

Tropical cyclones are by nature very unpredictable. Cyclone Nathan proves the adage again. Earlier forecasts said the storm would intensify and move over to New Caledonia or Vanuatu.

But no! It has changes its mind again. Latest predictions are the presently weak Nathan will start intensifying rapidly again, turn a circle in the Coral Sea and come back and hit the coast of Queensland hard on March 19, 2015, north of Townsville with winds of 150+ kph.

But considering the moody nature of Nathan we have to wait a couple of days and see what he does next.

LATEST FORECASTS SAY CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HIT QUEENSLAND ON MARCH 19, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0630 HRS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE QUEENSLAND COAST

The storm has winds of 90 kph. In the coming days it is going to further intensify. Forecasts say it is headed to southern Vanuatu. It will reach them on March 18, 2015. And worse still it is going to potter around for the next five days. A ghastly scenario. A significant cyclone hangs around in the same place for five days. And that too the area super cyclone Pam will batter in the coming 24 hours.

Bad times indeed for southern Vanuatu

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015, 0630 GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HOVER NEAR COAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

It is presently 360 kilometers north of Cairns. 200 kilometers north of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. It will stay nearly stationary for another 24 hours. After that it will intensify and fall back and move away from the Queensland coast.

Even now it has sustained winds of 80+ kph. And it is raining in the entire Cape York Peninsula with heavier showers on the coastal areas.

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 1230 HOURS GMT 

NATHAN HAS INTENSIFIED TO A 90 KPH STORM

Cyclone Nathan is about 200 kilometers north-north-east of Cooktown, Queensland. And about 350 kilometers north (approx.) of Cairns. Sustained wind speeds are 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. Winds of 55 kph are already lashing Cooktown. They are slightly less at Cairns. About 40 kph.

In the next 12 hours Nathan will creep closer to Cooktown. The 'eye' of the storm will lie practically over the town. After that it will slowly inch away into the Coral Sea on March 13.

The prospect of Nathan with its 100 kph winds hanging around close to the Cooktown coast for about 36-48 hours will not be pleasant.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HOURS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN MAY HIT NEW CALEDONIA ON MARCH 19, 2015

It is generally agreed that tropical cyclone Nathan will not make landfall into Queensland but swing back into the Coral Sea on March 13, 2015. What is not widely known is that after that the cyclone may hit New Caledonia Island on March 19, 2015 as a significant storm. Possibly a category 3 cyclone.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 0330 HOURS GMT

BAD NEWS FOR QUEENSLAND: NATHAN IS GOING TO STAY NEAR STATIONARY NEAR COAST FOR 48 HOURS, MARCH 11-13, 2015

A tropical cyclone passing over any region is bad enough. But if it just hovers almost motionless for 48 hours, that is reason for big concern. Cyclone Nathan is going to do just that near the Queensland coast at Cooktown. It will just stand there touching the coast from March 11-13. After that it will fall back into the Coral Sea. It will not make landfall into Queensland.

Right now it is slowly moving towards the Australian coast. It is about 210 kilometers north-east of Cooktown, 340 kilometers north-north-east of Cairns. It is already throwing winds of 85 kph gusts up to 110 kph. Cooktown and Cairns are facing winds of about 50 kph right now. And heavy rains have already started in these two towns. And they will continue for another two days.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN

CYCLONE NATHAN AT 0600 HRS GMT, MARCH 11, 2015

PDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0613 hours GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL FORM TODAY OFF QUEENSLAND

The South-West Pacific has got busy. After spawning super cyclone Pam, the Coral Sea will give birth to cyclone Nathan after nine hours today.

Future cyclone Nathan is a depression now termed 95P by NOAA. It is hovering around near the coast of Queensland, Australia.

By 1500 GMT today it will have intensified into a cyclone. By late evening on Thursday it will have intensified into a Category 3 storm and reached the Queensland coast at Cooktown in southern Cape York Peninsula.

But it will not make landfall. Instead it will swing back into the Coral Sea.

As to its future after that, the American GFS Forecast System predicts it will go on to hit the southern islands of Vanuatu on March 16, 2015. One must keep in mind that Vanuatu is expecting a near direct hit from the massive tropical cyclone Pam in the coming two days.

THIS IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA

Queensland, Australia May Be Visited By Tropical Cyclone Nathan

Cyclone Nathan will form in the next 48 hours. That is on March 10, 2015, a few hundred kilometers off the eastern coast of Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland, Australia in the Coral Sea.

Soon it will intensify and move close to the coast of Queensland. It will not make landfall but hover around the coast near Cooktown, gradually move south along the coast and then move away from land back into the Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to be a nasty little storm. Quite small compared to the gargantuan Pam expected further east in the Pacific Ocean but it may whip up winds in excess of  100 kph on coastal Queensland till March 14, 2015 after which it will swing back into the sea.

Only the eastern coastal stretch of Queensland near Cooktown will be affected. Cairns may experience some gusts and some rain but not much. Cape York Peninsula is in for some heavy rainfall in the coming days.

But after seeing cyclone Marcia suddenly unexpectedly intensifying into a category 5 hurricane for a while a few days ago, one can only keep our fingers crossed. One hopes Nathan will not turn out to be as freakish as Marcia.

Cyclone Nathan is going to give the Queensland authorities sleepless night as it is going to intensify and come towards the coast of Cooktown. But fortunately it will swing away back into the sea on March 12, 2015 without making landfall.

Nathan is going to be a significant tropical cyclone with a central minimum pressure of 979 Mb.

Vanuatu And Fiji Stare At Possible Category 5 Cyclone Pam

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

 Latest forecasts indicate that expected tropical cyclone Pam is going to move slightly eastwards from its earlier predicted path. Instead of hitting Vanuatu directly it will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands. Though present forecasts rule out a direct impact on Fiji, it is going to move past it too close for comfort on March 13, 2015.

There are five more days to go and Pam might change its path again. If that happens it is going to be real bad news for Fiji. I am sure the alarm bells must be ringing loud on that island.

Because we are staring at a monster in the making.

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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

 93P is an innocuous little low pressure area in the South Pacific presently. But in a few days it is going to turn into a massive destructive possible category 5 Hurricane PAM which is going to devastate Vanuatu.

The system lies east of the Solomon Islands and just north of the Santa Cruz islands. Location 7.8 degrees South, 169.9 degrees East. Wind speed is 25 kph. By tomorrow it is going to intensify into Tropical Cyclone Pam as it slowly moves in a south-south-west direction and hit Vanuatu on March 11, 2015.

The bad news for Vanuatu is that even as it passes through the islands Pam will be intensifying all the while. And we are looking at a massive cyclone of an expected central minimum pressure of 933 Mb. Huge. Powerful. And destructive. Vanuatu is in for winds of 225 kph (may be more) gusting up to 250 kph.

Tropical cyclone Pam is going to take about 48 hours to cross the Vanuatu Islands. So a large scale destruction is not ruled out. Port-Vila is going to be badly hit.

The only possible good news is that the European Forecast Model presages the storm will not hit Vanuatu directly but pass by it very close. In contrast the reliable GFS model predicts a direct hit.

All the models say Pam is going to be a God-awful storm. One certainly hopes the authorities will take early note of the impending threat and take all possible precautions.

A word of advice to tourists who have travel plans for Vanuatu in the coming week. Cancel them earliest possible.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: MARCH 11, 2015. CYCLONE PAM ABOUT TO HIT VANUATU

Tropical Depression 94S (Cyclone Haliba) Will Bring Wet Windy Weather To Mascareignes From March 9

UPDATE (EXTRA): MARCH 9, 2015

CYCLONE HALIBA IS NOW CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND We are talking of now. 1330 GMT. Haliba is 100 kilometers south-west of Reunion Island. After this it will move away. The winds in Reunion now are about 60 kph, gusts will be more. The cyclone being weak and of a smaller diameter is affecting Mauritius less. Winds of barely 35 kph. This will gradually go up to 50 kph. From tomorrow they will start easing off in Mauritius too.

By March 11, 2015 the rains will ease off both in Reunion and Mauritius. Even now they are not much. Just incessant drizzle with some moderate winds.

The focus is now shifting to south-west Pacific which is going to see the possible super cyclone Pam and also quite a powerful but less predictable Tropical cyclone Nathan. The image below, is a water vapor image of cyclone Haliba taken at 0600 GMT today morning.

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UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Well, Storm 94S did manage to get named HALIBA. But it is more of a deep depression than a tropical storm. The central minimum pressure will be 996 Mb. Hardly cyclone material.

But it will bring dark, gloomy, rainy and windy weather to the Mascareignes for a couple of days. The dull weather will stretch on till Wednesday because the remnants of tropical storm 15S will drift into the region adding to the unstable weather.

But things will clear up on Thursday.

Expect on-off rains and winds of 40 kph in Mauritius and slightly more In Reunion for a couple of days.

Cyclone Haliba is just a little boy who will not grow up.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HALIBA WITH ITS PROJECTED PATH. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0600 GMT, MARCH 9, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

There is little doubt that 94S will not transform into a tropical cyclone. The system is desperately trying to grow up and mature into a cyclone but unfavourable conditions are preventing it.

The system presently lies about 520 kilometers west-north-west of Reunion Island. In the next two days it is going to move east and pass right through Reunion.

94S is not going to turn into a cyclone but it is going to bring rainy, windy weather in the Mascareignes till Wednesday. The skies will clear up on Thursday.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

The cyclone threat to the Mascareignes seems to have receded but the region is in for a very wet windy time in the coming days as a deep depression will pass through it.

Latest forecasts say tropical cyclone Fifteen will fizzle out after making landfall into Madagascar but it is going to add to the rains that are to hit Mascareignes in the next two days.

Storm 94S which presently lies a few hundred kilometers west of Mauritius is slowly going to move south first then angle across and pass close to Reunion island (ECMWF predicts a direct hit) on March 9-10, 2015. 94S will be a depression then. So expect continuous showers and winds of 40-55 kph in Reunion and Mauritius from March 9 onwards. Reunion will be affected more.

Even after 94S passes over, the remnants of cyclone 15 will hop over into the Mascareignes and pass through it as a low pressure area. This will add another day of overcast, wet and windy weather.

In conclusion showers and winds up to 55 kph expected in Reunion and Mauritius on March 9-11. No cyclone, just a depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94S IS PRESENTLY WEST OF MAURITIUS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL MOVE CLOSE BY (OR RIGHT THROUGH) REUNION ISLAND

Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.