Cyclone Nathan To Make Landfall Into Arnhem Land In Coming Hours

See VIDEO: Nathan in Northern Territory. March 2015
See Tropical Cyclone Nathan LIVE

Update: March 23, 2015

CYCLONE NATHAN TO HIT ARNHEM LAND IN COMING HOURS: LITTLE EFFECT ON DARWIN

Tropical cyclone Nathan has traveled a long way in the recent past. It is now hovering in the Arafura Sea off the coast of Northern Territory, Australia.

Presently it packs quite a punch with winds of 85 kmph. But in the next 24 hours it is going to make landfall into Arnhem Land and weaken.

By the time it reaches Darwin it will have weakened considerably and only bring some showers to the city. But it will remain windy for the next couple of days.

The JTWC in contrast says the storm will be quite powerful when it moves past Darwin with winds of 65 kmph on March 25 (Darwin Time). But we beg to differ.

But it will strengthen a little to a depression again when it enters the Indian Ocean on March 26, 2015. It will not regain its cyclone strength.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT, MARCH 23, 2015, SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO ARNHEM LAND IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY

THE JTWC BELIEVES NATHAN WILL THROW UP WINDS OF 65 KMPH WHEN IT PASSES DARWIN. BUT THAT SEEMS IMPROBABLE.

==================================


Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to intensify and hit Cooktown on the Queensland coast of Australia on the night of March 19-20. The storm will then move across northern Queensland and enter the Gulf of Carpentaria. Nathan is going to travel a long way.

The cyclone is presently 400 kilometers east of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. A significant storm, it is spewing sustained winds of 85 kmph. Gusts up to 100 kmph.

It is moving west gradually. In the coming days it will intensify to peak wind speeds of 140 kmph. It will weaken a little at the time of landfall at Cooktown, Queensland on the night of March 19-20, 2015 (Thursday-Friday). Expected sustained winds at landfall are 125 kmph.

Nathan will then travel across northern Queensland  and enter sea again into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday morning (Australian Time). It will be quite a storm then with wind speeds of 85 kmph. It will intensify again to 100 kmph when it passes through Groote Eylandt in the Gulf.

Quite a storm!

On March 22 it will make landfall into Northern Territory. Into Arnhem Land. But it will have weakened considerably by them. Even then it might bring showers to Darwin on March 24, 2015.

Read More On Tropical Cyclone Nathan

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE NATHAN. BY THE TIME IT NEARS DARWIN IT WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE AREA

January 2, 2015: XWF-WEATHER FORECAST Summary: Cyclone Lam To Hit Western Australian On January 7, 2015.

Update: January 2, 2015

• Tropical Cyclone 'Lam' is on. The seas around north Australian coast (Darwin) in Timor Sea are tumultuous. A 'Low' Pressure area will form in a day or two which will turn into Lam on January 7. Lam will make landfall near the western Australian coast at Hedland and then traverse through Western Australia.
• Lam will prove a boon for the parched desert regions in Western Australia as it will bring heavy rains. The accompanying winds will be less than welcome to the mining industry.
• Another cyclone 'Linda' may form in the Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. It may cross over into the Coral Sea.
• A Depression (97S) in the Mozambique Channel is bringing  and will continue to bring heavy rains to Madagascar for another week.
• Two storms are likely to from in mid-January in the South-West Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel:  Another in Southern Indian Ocean which is likely to affect Rodrigues Island.

Tropical Cyclones 'Lam' And 'Linda' To Come Visiting Australia Together In Early January 2015?

Update: December 31, 2014

Come 2015 and Australia is likely to have unwelcome visitors. May be a tropical cyclone or two in early January.

The seas along the northern Australia coast are in ferment. Major reliable forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly hint at the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in Timor Sea, Arafura Sea or in both. The suspect area where a cyclone may develop is the coast along the towns of Berby and Broome in North-West Australia.

Most forecast models agree that a low pressure area and then a cyclone will develop in that area. The 'low' will develop on January 5-6, 2015, which will subsequently intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is disagreement on the likely path and intensity of the probable cyclone. 

One possibility is the storm develops near the coast of Broome-Derby on January 10 and moves inland right away. This will bring rainfall  to The Great Sandy Desert and Gibson Desert. This option envisages a weak storm but a great rain-maker.

The second scenario is a storm develops on January 8 and intensifies into something nasty (Minimum Central Pressure of 987 Mb) and moves along the coast of western Australia.

There are chances of another tropical cyclone developing in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria on January 6, 2015 and making landfall in the coast along the Gulf. This storm is likely to affect Wessel Islands, Groote Island, Sir Edward Pellew Group and Wellesley Islands (And of course the town of Karumba). All in Queensland. This storm may also cross over into the Coral Sea and intensify rapidly and threaten the eastern coast of Queensland.

The time period between January 5 to January 15, 2015 is pregnant with possibilities of cyclones developing that will affect Australia. Are tropical cyclones 'Lam' and 'Linda' visiting Australia together soon?

The bad news is that may be the drought of cyclones since 2011 when severe tropical cyclone Yasi hit Queensland is about to end in the coming days.

Cyclone 'Yasi' was the last cyclone to hit Australia in February 2011.