Sea Off North Western Australia To Spawn Many Storms In April 2017

APRIL 2, 2017

After the dangerous typhoon Debbie, the seas off the Australian coast is going to see hectic storm activity. And all of it will occur in the Timor Sea and adjoining Indian Ocean off the coast of Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Almost all forecast models are predicting 2 or 3 depressions or tropical storms in that area of the ocean. This will happen in the coming days around April 10. Two of the storms may sail harmlessly west into the Indian Ocean without landfall into the country-continent.

But the third one that will form off East Timor is the one to watch out for. The American GFS model expects it to intensify into a 955 hPa monster and hit the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland on April 11-12, 2017.

The expected storms will be named Cempaka or Ernie depending on where the cyclone forms, in the waters of Indonesian Met jurisdiction or in BOM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) waters.

Latest forecasts hint at the possibility of the formation of two tropical storms. The first will start off as a low pressure area on April 5 south of Java. The second low pressure system will form around April 9 in Timor sea north of Darwin.

The American CPC (Climate Prediction Center) in it's latest report says, "GEFS indicates that the Timor Sea region to the north of Australia has an elevated risk of tropical cyclone development".

January 2, 2015: XWF-WEATHER FORECAST Summary: Cyclone Lam To Hit Western Australian On January 7, 2015.

Update: January 2, 2015

• Tropical Cyclone 'Lam' is on. The seas around north Australian coast (Darwin) in Timor Sea are tumultuous. A 'Low' Pressure area will form in a day or two which will turn into Lam on January 7. Lam will make landfall near the western Australian coast at Hedland and then traverse through Western Australia.
• Lam will prove a boon for the parched desert regions in Western Australia as it will bring heavy rains. The accompanying winds will be less than welcome to the mining industry.
• Another cyclone 'Linda' may form in the Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. It may cross over into the Coral Sea.
• A Depression (97S) in the Mozambique Channel is bringing  and will continue to bring heavy rains to Madagascar for another week.
• Two storms are likely to from in mid-January in the South-West Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel:  Another in Southern Indian Ocean which is likely to affect Rodrigues Island.

Tropical Cyclones 'Lam' And 'Linda' To Come Visiting Australia Together In Early January 2015?

Update: December 31, 2014

Come 2015 and Australia is likely to have unwelcome visitors. May be a tropical cyclone or two in early January.

The seas along the northern Australia coast are in ferment. Major reliable forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly hint at the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in Timor Sea, Arafura Sea or in both. The suspect area where a cyclone may develop is the coast along the towns of Berby and Broome in North-West Australia.

Most forecast models agree that a low pressure area and then a cyclone will develop in that area. The 'low' will develop on January 5-6, 2015, which will subsequently intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is disagreement on the likely path and intensity of the probable cyclone. 

One possibility is the storm develops near the coast of Broome-Derby on January 10 and moves inland right away. This will bring rainfall  to The Great Sandy Desert and Gibson Desert. This option envisages a weak storm but a great rain-maker.

The second scenario is a storm develops on January 8 and intensifies into something nasty (Minimum Central Pressure of 987 Mb) and moves along the coast of western Australia.

There are chances of another tropical cyclone developing in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria on January 6, 2015 and making landfall in the coast along the Gulf. This storm is likely to affect Wessel Islands, Groote Island, Sir Edward Pellew Group and Wellesley Islands (And of course the town of Karumba). All in Queensland. This storm may also cross over into the Coral Sea and intensify rapidly and threaten the eastern coast of Queensland.

The time period between January 5 to January 15, 2015 is pregnant with possibilities of cyclones developing that will affect Australia. Are tropical cyclones 'Lam' and 'Linda' visiting Australia together soon?

The bad news is that may be the drought of cyclones since 2011 when severe tropical cyclone Yasi hit Queensland is about to end in the coming days.

Cyclone 'Yasi' was the last cyclone to hit Australia in February 2011.