UPDATE, JULY 20, 6:00PM IST
The low pressure system presently over central Madhya Pradesh will move over north Gujarat by Saturday morning. It will remain stationary for 48 hours there and then weaken on Tuesday and move into Rajasthan and fade into insignificance.
There is uncertainty as to which state will benefit more from the Bay of Bengal low pressure system hovering presently over Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan or Gujarat?
There is disagreement amongst leading forecast models as to what will happen. Let us outline the two alternate scenarios....
POSSIBILITY ONE: A much weaker system. It moves over to Rajasthan and then dissipates in next 3-4 days. Southeast Rajasthan gets the most rainfall. Udaipur region receives a deluge in the coming 48-72 hours. Entire Rajasthan gets moderate, heavy or very heavy rainfall till July 25.
Gujarat. North Gujarat receives heavy to very heavy rains. Aravalli, Mahesana, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha and perhaps Ahmedabad gets heavy rains. Amreli, Junagadh, Porbandar, Kutch districts receive heavy rains. Moderate to light rainfall in rest of Saurashtra.
POSSIBILITY TWO: Flooding. Flooding. The system strengthens over Gujarat. It moves to Gujarat and then to Rajasthan. It hovers dangerously over Kutch for 48 hours, on Sunday, Monday. In that case entire north, central, south Gujarat receive heavy rains. Parts of northern Saurashtra, Kutch receive very heavy rains. Parts of Sindh receives heavy rains on July 24-25. Heavy rains in southern Rajasthan. We are talking here of possible flooding.
The coming 24 hours will give indications as to which of two scenario becomes reality. Rarely have models disagreed so violently. Moderate to heavy rains on one side. To heavy to very heavy flooding rainfall on the other side.
For instance the GFS gives Rajkot barely 2 inches on Friday. That is it. The ECMWF gives Rajkot 2 inches tomorrow, 6 inches on Saturday. Similarly GFS gives Ahmedabad 1 inch on Friday, 2 inches on Saturday. The ECMWF gives Ahmedabad 12 inches on Saturday. This shows the extreme difference of perception between the American and European models.
Gujarat faces a 50% chance of calamitous, flooding rainfall in the coming 3-4 days till July 25 morning. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF MOST AREAS OF NORTH GUJARAT RECEIVING A TOTAL OF 25 INCHES OF RAINFALL TILL MORNING OF JULY 26. THE DISTRICTS ARE SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, AHMEDABAD, ANAND.
We are tracking developments closely and will give regular updates. Keep in touch.
WARNING FLASH, JULY 20, 3:30 PM.
THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT HAS ISSUED THE HIGHEST LEVEL RED ALERT RAINFALL WARNING FOR GUJARAT, RAJASTHAN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
July 20: Konkan Goa, Madhya Maharashtra.
July 21: Gujarat Region, Saurashtra Kutch, East Rajasthan.
July 22: Gujarat Region, Saurashtra Kutch, East Rajasthan.
July 23: East Rajasthan, West Rajasthan.
July 24: West Rajasthan.
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