Rajasthan In For Heavy Rains Till Sunday

LATEST UPDATE ON RAJASTHAN CIRCULATION.....

Largest forecast data reveals that the weakened cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan, after bringing heavy rains to parts of Rajasthan will dissipate over northwest region of the state. No appreciable amount of rainfall is now expected in any part of Sindh province as predicted earlier.

JULY 28, 2017, FRIDAY

The low pressure area from eastern Madhya Pradesh now lies over western parts of the state. A cyclonic circulation is already present in central Rajasthan. On top of it another cyclonic circulation lies over Gujarat region.

What it means is very heavy rainfall is likely in many parts of Rajasthan in the next 48 hours. Jhalor, Pali,  Jodhpur will receive the heaviest falls. After Monday the Madhya Pradesh low pressure system will wander off into north Rajasthan, Haryana. But with little rain effects accompanying it.

The rains will move into Sindh, Pakistan for the next two days. That is on Saturday, Sunday. 1-5 inches are expected in many places in the province.

The presence of three cyclonic circulations in the region has made the IMD apprehensive. It expects the situation may result in more heavy rains Gujarat. But we think, barring some districts in north Gujarat, the rain threat in Gujarat has receded.

Interestingly, the Rajasthan circulation after travelling through Sindh may still visit western Kutch on Sunday evening before dissipating.

Rains In Gujarat Will Ease From Friday, Will Pour In Rajasthan For Next 3-4 Days

UPDATE, JULY 27, THURSDAY, 9:30 AM IST 

Frankly, the present cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan has everybody confused. When it first arrived over Rajasthan and under its influence the deluge over Gujarat, Rajasthan began, none had expected it would sustain for so many days.

The present situation has left weathermen scratching their heads. It was expected that the system would weaken and move over to Kutch. It has not. Today morning it still hovers over central Rajasthan. With little sign of dissipating.

On top of that, the other depression presently over eastern Uttar Pradesh, is expected to arrive at Rajasthan in the next 48 hours. What if system 1 does not dissipate by the time system 2 arrives? 

The possibility is mind boggling. A clash. The result? Another deluge over north Gujarat. More likely over Rajasthan. Many parts of Rajasthan are in for very heavy rainfall in the next 3-4 days.

Rains in ease in Gujarat by Saturday, possibly Friday. Barring an occasional shower heavy downpours are unlikely in the state from tomorrow.

Parts of Rajasthan may receive heavy rains in the next 3 days.

After that monsoon will take a break for at least 15 days.

JULY 27, 2017, THURSDAY 

The present deluge in Ahmedabad is the dying gasps of the cyclonic circulation over north Gujarat.

It is spreading south into Surendranagar. Almost into Bhavnagar, Amreli. In the north the clouds stretch to Mahesana, Palanpur, Banaskantha. A big cluster of thunderstorms.

I have a feeling many places in Saurashtra, Rajkot included, is for heavy thunderstorms today afternoon.

It will bring rains to Kutch, parts of Saurashtra, north Gujarat for another 24 hours.

The system will dissipate tonight over Kutch.

But rains in north Gujarat will continue for another 2-3 days under the influence of the weakened cyclonic circulation which will arrive over Rajasthan. Mind you, this system is the second low pressure area, currently over Madhya Pradesh.

No significant rainfall is expected in Sindh or Karachi in the near future.

Rains Will Move Into Kutch By Thursday

UPDATE, JULY 25, 1600 HOURS IST

The low pressure system has moved from south Rajasthan to central Rajasthan.

The European model expected this. It believes it will weaken and swing back to south Rajasthan by tomorrow then move though Kutch.

The GFS and the Indian Met. believes it will not. It will mean rapid clearing up of weather over Gujarat by Friday-Saturday (maybe even earlier) and no rainfall at all in Sindh. Just a shower in Kutch.

In short, the two are predicting diametrically opposite things.

Who will be right? 

At stake are the reputations of the mighty ECMWF with the biggest weather supercomputers in the world on one side and the much vaunted weather analysis skills of the American NOAA on the other side.

What do you think?

,JULY 25, 2017, TUESDAY 

The low pressure area over east Rajasthan will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it begins to move towards the Kutch-Sindh border areas. It is expected to dissipate by Friday evening.

What will be it's precipitation effects?

The next 36 hours will see heavy rains in the same areas of north Gujarat that have seen incessant rainfall in the previous 3 days. Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Ahmedabad, Aravalli districts.

The action will shift to Kutch by late Wednesday night. Kutch may see heavy downpours on Thursday. There will a slight respite for Kutch on Friday, but more showers likely on Saturday under the influence of the other low pressure area presently over Jharkhand right now. Yes. That system, weakened into a cyclonic circulation will reach east Rajasthan by Friday. It will bring more showers to Kutch on Saturday.

In Saurashtra, Morbi, Surendranagar districts may receive heavy falls by Friday morning. Rajkot, Jamnagar upto 3 inches of rainfall.

Weather over entire Gujarat will clear up only on Sunday.

Rajasthan will receive rains under the influence of the two systems in the coming 5-6 days. But it will not be as extreme as in Gujarat. Far from it.

Entire Sindh province in Pakistan will see some showers on July 29-30.

TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN GUJARAT FROM JULY 25-AUGUST 1, 2017

TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN, IN PERIOD JULY 25-AUGUST 1.

Heavy Rains In Gujarat Till July 27

JULY 24, 2017, MONDAY

The low pressure area presently over south Rajasthan will still cause very heavy rainfall in north and northeast Gujarat in the next 48 hours. The districts affected will be Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Patan, Aravalli, Ahmedabad, Dahod, Mahisagar, Kheda, Anand.

The rains will begin to move to Kutch by Wednesday afternoon and may continue into Thursday, July 27. The system is expected to weaken and dissipate over northern Kutch-Sindh border regions by Friday.

Other possibilities are it moves north into Rajasthan (GFS) OR it moves into the Arabian Sea via Saurashtra on Thursday. (German model). This possibility says the system will retain its strength and will move towards northern Oman.

Only the German model predicts that the system will intensify into a deep depression as it enters the Arabian Sea off Kutch-Karachi coast.

The Indian Meteorological Department seems to think the system will move north into Rajasthan. In the latest morning bulletin today it predicts decreasing rains in Gujarat from Tuesday evening and heavy rains in Rajasthan.

As to the other low pressure system over India, in West Bengal..... It will move through Bihar, Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh onto Madhya Pradesh in the coming days. It is at present expected to dissipate over northwest Madhya Pradesh by July 28.

West Bengal, Jharkhand, parts of Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will receive the most precipitation from this system.

Low Pressure To Affect Gujarat Till July 29?

JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY

There is a strong possibility that the current low pressure system over southeast Rajasthan is not going to dissipate in the next 2-3 days as widely expected but will briefly intensify and move over Kutch region of Gujarat again by Wednesday.

The Indian Meteorological Department believes presently that the system will affect north Gujarat for another 2-3 days and then the rainfall in decreasing amounts will shift to Rajasthan.

There is another possibility. The low pressure area instead of moving northeasterly and dissipating over northeast Rajasthan, INTENSIFIES BRIEFLY AND COMES BACK TO GUJARAT, OVER KUTCH BY WEDNESDAY. Then it dissipates by Thursday/Friday when over Kutch.

If that happens then what?

Heavy rains continue in northeast Gujarat till Wednesday and then come back to crisis spots Banaskantha, Kutch, Morbi, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar  districts. Heavy rains expected in these areas on Wednesday, July 26 and Thursday, July 29.

Ahmedabad may receive almost 4 inches of rain daily Sunday to Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Worst affected will be Ahmedabad, Patan, Banaskantha, possibly northern parts of Surendranagar district.

Sindh will not benefit much even if this possibility does become reality.

Meanwhile the Indian Meteorological Department has issued the highest red alert rainfall warning for entire Gujarat state on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.

Low Pressure System Forming Over West Bengal

JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY 

The Bay of Bengal is in ferment. A low pressure area will crystallise over West Bengal by Sunday evening. That is today evening.

Very heavy rainfall will occur in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha in the next 36 hours. The system will move through Jharkhand, northern chatt, northern Madhya Pradesh onto northern Rajasthan and dissipate by Thursday-Friday.

Most of heavy precipitation will occur in West Bengal, Jharkhand, northern Madhya Pradesh by Thursday.

Flooding Rains Expected In North Gujarat Till Monday Eve

UPDATE, JULY 22, 2:00 PM IST 

FORECAST FLASH.......

The low pressure system over Madhya Pradesh has begun to towards north Gujarat. It will reach by Saturday late night and will intensify. It will remain over north Gujarat-south Rajasthan border till Tuesday.

As the system is intensifying, THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY VIGOROUS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48-72.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE STATE. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS IN OTHER AREAS.

THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN GRAVE TILL MONDAY.........SEVERE FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY......

In next 24 hours, till Sunday evening, 10 inches of rainfall expected in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar city, 12 inches in Himmatnagar, 8 inches in Palanpur.

Heaviest rain expected in Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Kheda, Surendranagar districts.

JULY 22, 2017, SATURDAY 

Even as the low pressure area moves over north Gujarat-South Rajasthan, very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the state in the next 72 hours.

Though all the regions of the state will receive rains in lesser or more amounts, the deluge is expected in north Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra till July 24 evening.

The following districts will receive more than 10 inches of rainfall.....

SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, GANDHINAGAR, AHMEDABAD, ANAND, PARTS OF SURENDRANAGAR.

The cyclonic circulation will move over to Rajasthan on Monday but it's southwest quadrant having all the rain clouds, so rainfall will continue in Gujarat till July 27 intermittently.

In Rajasthan, the southern parts will receive very heavy rains in the coming 96 hours. Rains will also spill over to parts of Sindh province of Pakistan by Monday. Dabhri, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad may receive heavy showers in the coming days.

Gujarat In For A Wet Spell Till July 25: FLOODING AWAITS BANASKANTHA, PATAN.

JULY 21, 2017, FRIDAY 

The low pressure system from the Bay of Bengal is hovering over western Madhya Pradesh presently. In the coming  1-2 days it is expected to move over southern Rajasthan-North Gujarat region. On Monday it will wander north over to Rajasthan and dissipate by Wednesday.

Affecting the weather in Gujarat is another low pressure system presently hovering over Gujarat. But it is expected to dissolve in a day or two.

Under these influences intermittent showers are likely in Gujarat in the next 2-3 days. Some regions of the state will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall.

The rains will move to Rajasthan from Sunday. It will continue till Wednesday. But barring areas adjoining Gujarat the rains will not be very heavy.

Meanwhile another low pressure system will form over Bangladesh/West Bengal on Monday, July 24. Its track is at present not clear.

EXPECTED RAINFALL TILL TUESDAY MORNING 

More than 6 inches. Some regions may receive upto 20-25 inches: BANASKANTHA, SABARKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, VADODARA, VALSAD, PARTS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH GUJARAT, PARTS OF AMRELI, JUNAGADH, KUTCH DISTRICTS.

Upto 6 inches: RAJKOT, JUNAGADH, AHMEDABAD, SURENDRANAGAR, MORBI, PARTS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH GUJARAT.

Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Sabarkantha, Aravalli districts are in for a deluge. THEY WILL RECEIVE CONTINUOUS RAINS ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY, MONDAY. TOTAL OF MORE THAN 30 INCHES IN 3 DAYS. ESPECIALLY BANASKANTHA, PATAN DISTRICTS.

There is a good chance of very heavy rains in Morbi. Parts of Kutch and Surendranagar districts receiving 8-15 inches of rain by Monday morning.

Fate of Bay Of Bengal Low Uncertain: Will Drench Rajasthan Or Gujarat?

UPDATE, JULY 20, 6:00PM IST 

The low pressure system presently over central Madhya Pradesh will move over north Gujarat by Saturday morning. It will remain stationary for 48 hours there and then weaken on Tuesday and move into Rajasthan and fade into insignificance.

July 20, 2017, Thursday 

There is uncertainty as to which state will benefit more from the Bay of Bengal low pressure system hovering presently over Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan or Gujarat?

There is disagreement amongst leading forecast models as to what will happen. Let us outline the two alternate scenarios....

POSSIBILITY ONE: A much weaker system. It moves over to Rajasthan and then dissipates in next 3-4 days. Southeast Rajasthan gets the most rainfall. Udaipur region receives a deluge in the coming 48-72 hours. Entire Rajasthan gets moderate, heavy or very heavy rainfall till July 25.

Gujarat. North Gujarat receives heavy to very heavy rains. Aravalli, Mahesana, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha and perhaps Ahmedabad gets heavy rains. Amreli, Junagadh, Porbandar, Kutch districts receive heavy rains. Moderate to light rainfall in rest of Saurashtra.

POSSIBILITY TWO: Flooding. Flooding. The system strengthens over Gujarat. It moves to Gujarat and then to Rajasthan. It hovers dangerously over Kutch for 48 hours, on Sunday, Monday. In that case entire north, central, south Gujarat receive heavy rains. Parts of northern Saurashtra, Kutch receive very heavy rains. Parts of Sindh receives heavy rains on July 24-25. Heavy rains in southern Rajasthan. We are talking here of possible flooding.

The coming 24 hours will give indications as to which of two scenario becomes reality. Rarely have models disagreed so violently. Moderate to heavy rains on one side. To heavy to very heavy flooding rainfall on the other side. 

For instance the GFS gives Rajkot barely 2 inches on Friday. That is it. The ECMWF gives Rajkot 2 inches tomorrow, 6 inches on Saturday. Similarly GFS gives Ahmedabad 1 inch on Friday, 2 inches on Saturday. The ECMWF gives Ahmedabad 12 inches on Saturday. This shows the extreme difference of perception between the American and European models.

Gujarat faces a 50% chance of calamitous, flooding rainfall in the coming 3-4 days till July 25 morning. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF MOST AREAS OF NORTH GUJARAT RECEIVING A TOTAL OF 25 INCHES OF RAINFALL TILL MORNING OF JULY 26. THE DISTRICTS ARE SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, AHMEDABAD, ANAND.

We are tracking developments closely and will give regular updates. Keep in touch.

WARNING FLASH, JULY 20, 3:30 PM.

THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT HAS ISSUED THE HIGHEST LEVEL RED ALERT RAINFALL WARNING FOR GUJARAT, RAJASTHAN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

July 20: Konkan Goa, Madhya Maharashtra.

July 21: Gujarat Region, Saurashtra Kutch, East Rajasthan.

July 22: Gujarat Region, Saurashtra Kutch, East Rajasthan.

July 23: East Rajasthan, West Rajasthan.

July 24: West Rajasthan.

FLOODING RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH IMMINENT: Bay Of Bengal System: What Do The Models Predict? (July 18-25)

LJULY 18, 2017, TUESDAY 

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area has intensified into a depression and is expected to cross the Odisha coast tonight. That is the night of July 18-19. Where will it go? Which states of India will receive the most rainfall as the system moves through the country?

Let us see what leading global numerical weather prediction models have to say about it. All agree that it is going to rain heavily in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. After that there is some difference of opinion. Some say Gujarat will get the drenching. Some say southern Rajasthan. One of them says it will rain the heaviest in Sindh, Pakistan.

After analysing data from reliable models we arrive at the following conclusions.....

ANOTHER DELUGE OF 15-25 INCHES PARTS OF GUJARAT, SAURASHTRA BY JULY 24.

MOST PARTS OF GUJARAT TO RECEIVE ATLEAST 4-5 INCHES.

SOME PARTS OF MADHYA PRADESH, BHOPAL, INDORE IN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS IN NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

HEAVY RAINS IN MOST OF MADHYA PRADESH, SOUTHERN CHATTISGARH, SOUTHEAST RAJASTHAN. UDAIPUR AREA.

FLOODS LIKELY IN MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT IN COMING 5-6 DAYS.

Let us start the analysis.....The forecast maps show the expected accumulated rainfall in the period July 18-25, 2017.

The Australian forecast model gives a deluge in southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Besides, of course, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh before that.

The American GFS model gives most rains in central and western Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Almost identical to the Australian forecast.

The very reliable European model ECMWF gives entire Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch a deluge. 20-25 inches. Heavy rains in parts of Madhya Pradesh, southern Chattisgarh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra.

The German forecast model gives the most rainfall to Sindh, Pakistan. And also parts of Andhra, Telangana and Chattisgarh. Heavy rains also in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan. Gujarat gets little compared to the neighboring states. 

GFS PREDICTS FLOODING RAIN IN SAURASHTRA, KUTCH IN NEXT 72 HOURS:Opinions Differ On The Upcoming Gujarat Rain System

JULY 14, 2017, FRIDAY 

FORECAST FLASH......

Most models including the European model say the cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh will not intensify much but pass through north Gujarat, Kutch and weaken, maybe dissipate after that by Monday.

Only the GFS model ( as does the Indian Meteorological Department) predicts that it will strengthen into a powerful depression tomorrow when over north Gujarat. And that it will remain a depression even on Sunday. It will abruptly weaken on Monday on entering Sindh.

IF THE EUROPEAN MODEL+ ARE RIGHT...

It means heavy rains mostly in Banaskantha, Patan, Kutch districts in the next 72 hours. Moderate rains, not heavy, in Ahmedabad, Rajkot and in other parts of Saurashtra.

IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.....

It will mean very heavy rains in Saurashtra, north Gujarat, parts of Kutch, Ahmedabad, Rajkot. In short the forecast we have made till now.....

The next 72 hours will tell who is proved right.

Latest GFS data issued at 0600 hours UTC July 14, still confirms that the low pressure system due in Gujarat on Saturday will intensify into a powerful depression on Saturday, Sunday. That means many areas in Kutch, Saurashtra, north Gujarat are in for very heavy rains till Monday. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW.....The figures in the map are in mm of rainfall.

Latest GFS forecast predicts heaviest rains in Saurashtra till Monday night. Districts of Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Morbi, Porbandar, Kutch.

Parts of Saurashtra, Kutch, N. Gujarat To Receive Deluge By July 17

JULY 14, 2017, FRIDAY 

The low pressure system presently over western Madhya Pradesh is likely to arrive over north Gujarat by tomorrow. The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a red alert warning of very heavy rainfall for the entire state of Gujarat on July 15, 2017.

The question is will it rain heavily in the entire state in the next 2-3 days? The answer is no. It will rain very heavily only in pockets of the state, while rest will receive medium rainfall.

But heavy rains where?

This is a difficult question to answer as low pressure systems are difficult to predict. The track. More importantly which quadrant of the system will throw down the maximum rains. Because this means a difference of 2 inches and 20 inches.

Most models feel the system will move through north Gujarat and Kutch (some pockets of northern Saurashtra) and then abruptly weaken on July 16, after a sudden but brief intensification tomorrow.

There is instead a strong possibility that the system may move slightly diagonally from Palanpur (where it is raining heaviest presently) to Dwarka. Thus the areas between these two towns will receive the most deluge, that is 20-25 inches in the next 3 days.

We maybe proved wrong but our forecast is the following areas will receive the heaviest rains. PATAN, SABARKANTHA, MORBI, GANDHIDHAM, MANDVI, JAMNAGAR, DWARKA. All more than 20 inches.

According to these estimates Ahmedabad will receive 4-5 inches, Rajkot 4-5 inches, Vadodara 4-5 inches, Junagadh 3-4 inches, Surendranagar 5-6 inches, Anand 5-6 inches, Bhuj 3-4 inches.

GIVEN BELOW IS THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL IN SOME CITIES OF GUJARAT BY THE GFS MODEL

6 inches in Ahmedabad likely by Saturday morning.

5-6 inches of rain in Rajkot on Saturday.

4 inches of rain in Bhuj by Monday.

10 inches in Morbi on Saturday.

10 inches in Jamnagar by Monday morning.

4 inches in Surat by Monday morning.

6 inches in Vadodara, Anand by Saturday morning.

10 inches in Junagadh by Monday morning.

6-8 inches in Amreli by Monday morning.

4 inches in Bhavnagar by Monday morning.

9 inches in Surendranagar by Monday morning.

Heavy Rains In Madhya Pradesh Till July 14 Evening

JULY 12, 2017, WEDNESDAY 

Many parts of Madhya Pradesh are in for very heavy rainfall in the coming 48 hours. Especially affected will be the northern half of the state.

The cyclonic circulation from eastern Uttar Pradesh is now hovering over eastern Madhya Pradesh. It will gradually move to southeast Rajasthan then onto Gujarat where it will dissipate by Sunday. Though some forecast model expect it to move onto the Arabian Sea via coastal Sindh and then dissolve.

Coming back to Madhya Pradesh, the eastern parts, Jabalpur, is presently receiving the rains. By tomorrow it will shift to central parts (SAGAR, GUNA, BHOPAL), and by Friday morning, northwestern areas of the state.

By Friday, parts of Gujarat will be facing flooding rains.

24 HOURS RAIN FORECAST FOR MADHYA PRADESH (JULY 12-13)

24 HOURS RAINFALL FORECAST FOR MADHYA PRADESH (JULY 13-14)

Madhya Pradesh In For A Deluge In Next 3 Days

JULY 11, 2017, TUESDAY 

Most parts of Madhya Pradesh are in for heavy rains in the coming 3-4 days as the cyclonic circulation presently over eastern Uttar Pradesh moves in.

It is already raining in parts of eastern Madhya Pradesh which will increase as the circulation moves through the state.

Bhopal, Indore will receive good rains beginning tomorrow.

The rain lashing in the state will only ease as the circulation weakens and its remnants move into Gujarat by Friday.

That is not all. Western parts of the state, Indore in particular, are in for more heavy flooding rains as the low pressure system from the Bay of Bengal, which is going to form soon off the Andhra Pradesh coast, reaches the region around July 20-21.

Heavy Rainfall In Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu, Kashmir Till July 13

JULY 11, 2017, TUESDAY 

Even as the low pressure area hovering over eastern Uttar Pradesh drenches the state, monsoon is preparing to assault the last bastion in India, Jammu and Kashmir. 

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Uttarakhand, parts of western Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and some districts of Kashmir in the coming 48 hours. The spell of rainfall in these areas will peter out by July 13-14.

Surprisingly, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab will receive comparatively less rainfall in the next 2 days.

In the same period, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bengal will continue to be lashed by rains.

It is is only by July 14-15 when the center of gravity of the monsoon shifts to Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat that these parts of northern and eastern India will get some respite from the incessant downpours.

From June 15-16, the region to watch is Gujarat as a low pressure system is going to flood the state for days.

Despite claims Delhi is not expected to receive very heavy rains in the next 2-3 days. Intermittent showers describes it better.

Heavy Rains In Eastern UP, Chattisgarh, Eastern Madhya Pradesh Today

JULY 9, 2017, SUNDAY 

WARNING FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:  The monsoon is going to be active in eastern Uttar Pradesh, northern Chattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh in the next 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM on Monday, July 10. Very heavy rains expected in these regions. Good rains too in Bihar till July 10 morning.

Intensity of rainfall will increase in southwestern Bihar by tomorrow and subside only on Tuesday morning.

In fact because of the low pressure system hovering over Uttar Pradesh heavy, continuous rainfall will occur in eastern Uttar Pradesh till July 13, 2017. FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE FOR A WEEK.

Meanwhile rains are subsiding in Gorakhpur region of eastern Uttar Pradesh. But at 11:00 AM today it is raining heavily in Banda, Rewa. Intensity increasing near Bahraich.

Flooding is real possibility in eastern Uttar Pradesh as it is going to more or less continuously rain till July 13, 2017. Bahraich, Faizabad, Varanasi, Allahabad, Gorakhpur to receive more than 20 inches of rain in next 96 hours.

Monsoon To Reach Punjab By July 12

JULY 7, 2017, FRIDAY

Monsoon will reach Punjab by July 12, 2017. That means it will cover entire India. Presently the rains have not covered some parts of northwest Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Jammu, Kashmir.

Heavy rains are expected in Jammu on July 11, which will spread to Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi by July 12. Though the spell of rains in these areas will last only till then. That is July 11-13.

Till then the upper air cyclonic circulation over eastern Uttar Pradesh will continue to bring intermittent rains in the state. Though after July 9 the emphasis will be more in western UP. Agra, Moradabad region.

After July 13 the circulation will abruptly move south towards Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh. By July 14-15 it will intensify into a low pressure system and will reach southeast Rajasthan. The state can expect good rains in that period.

By July 16 the low will be hovering over north Gujarat. Heavy rains in the state are expected from July 15.

GFS model rainfall forecast for India in the coming 15 days.

Gujarat In For A Deluge In Mid July?

JULY 6, 2017, THURSDAY

If forecast models are to be believed, the Indian state of Gujarat is in for flooding rainfall beginning mid July as two low pressure systems may hit it one after another by July 22.

The first system will be born in Bihar/Jharkhand on July 9 as an upper air cyclonic circulation. It will move onto eastern Uttar Pradesh, then northern Madhya Pradesh by July 12. It will have intensified into a big rainmaker by then. By July 14-15 it will be hovering over southeastern Rajasthan.

But it's southern quadrant will bring the maximum rainfall. This will arrive in Gujarat/Saurashtra/Kutch by July 15. So expect heavy to very heavy rains in the state beginning July 14. Before that parts of northwestern Madhya Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan will receive a deluge on July 12-14.
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Not only Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Sindh, the GFS model predicts the monsoon is going to enter a very active stage from July 12 and which will continue till the end of July. Many low pressure systems are likely with heavy rains in entire peninsular India. Especially Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra.

The system may move onto Sindh, Pakistan by July 15-16, bringing possibly very heavy rains in the province, including the capital Karachi.

THE SECOND SYSTEM will form over Bangladesh on July 15-16 and move quickly through West Bengal, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and hit Gujarat on July 20. This one will be even bigger than the first.

It may intensify into a depression by the time it reaches Gujarat. And that system too may flood southern Sindh and Karachi by July 21.

So strong is this depression going to be that it will enter Arabian Sea on July 21 and intensify further into a deep depression, may be even a cyclone. It may hit Balochistan or northern Oman after that but that remains to be seen.

The GFS envisages the low pressure system reaching Oman by July 22 bringing 2-4 inches of rain in the country, especially the northern parts (Muscat included).

Monsoon Hitting E Uttar Pradesh: Next Target Jharkhand, Bihar

JULY 4, 2017, TUESDAY 

The monsoon is pummelling eastern Uttar Pradesh hard right now. By the next 48 hours, around July 5-6 it's attention will shift to Bihar and particularly Jharkhand.

There is a real hazard of floods in Jharkhand as heavy rainfall is going to hit the state hard starting tomorrow. The onslaught will continue till July 7. 

After which the heavy rain system will move to northern Chattisgarh onto Vidarbha by July 8. 

Parts of Maharashtra are in for very heavy rains during the period July 8-10. Particularly the northern parts of the state.

The rain system will be knocking on the doors of south Gujarat by July 10-11. It remains to be seen if it then moves onto other parts of the state, Saurashtra, Kutch.

Interestingly, the GFS forecast model predicts very heavy rains in Gujarat, Sindh around July 13-14. It expects a low pressure area to develop over the state.

HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN EASTERN UTTAR PRADESH, BIHAR, JHARKHAND TILL JULY 6 EVENING.

WHAT FORECAST MODELS SAY (NEXT 15 DAYS)

The GFS says rain, rain, heavy rains in the period July 12-20. It expects a low to form over Gujarat on July 14 which will bring flooding rains to entire Gujarat, and Sindh in Pakistan around July 14-16. 

It also predicts a low pressure system/depression to form over Bangladesh on July 15-16 which will move through Bengal, Jharkhand and reach Madhya Pradesh on July 20. More heavy rains from the system. It remains to be seen where the system goes from Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan? Gujarat/Sindh? Or northern Maharashtra/Mumbai?

The European model ECMWF predicts heavy monsoon rains in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal till July 12. Meanwhile a low may form on July 12 over Bengal/Bangladesh. It will move through Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh onto northern Madhya Pradesh by July 14.

American Agency Predicts Rains Will Move To MP, Gujarat By Mid July.

JULY 3, 2017, MONDAY

American weather and climate forecast agency NOAA says the monsoon will drench Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, north Bengal and Indian NE states in the coming 7 days. We had already discussed this in our article on July 1, 2017.

The agency further says that in week 2, that is in the period July 7-16, 2017, the rains will become active over Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat again. It predicts heavy rains in many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Kutch, Saurashtra in Gujarat and in Konkan and Mumbai by mid July. SEE FORECAST MAPS BELOW......