The low pressure system presently over western Madhya Pradesh is likely to arrive over north Gujarat by tomorrow. The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a red alert warning of very heavy rainfall for the entire state of Gujarat on July 15, 2017.
The question is will it rain heavily in the entire state in the next 2-3 days? The answer is no. It will rain very heavily only in pockets of the state, while rest will receive medium rainfall.
But heavy rains where?
This is a difficult question to answer as low pressure systems are difficult to predict. The track. More importantly which quadrant of the system will throw down the maximum rains. Because this means a difference of 2 inches and 20 inches.
Most models feel the system will move through north Gujarat and Kutch (some pockets of northern Saurashtra) and then abruptly weaken on July 16, after a sudden but brief intensification tomorrow.
There is instead a strong possibility that the system may move slightly diagonally from Palanpur (where it is raining heaviest presently) to Dwarka. Thus the areas between these two towns will receive the most deluge, that is 20-25 inches in the next 3 days.
We maybe proved wrong but our forecast is the following areas will receive the heaviest rains. PATAN, SABARKANTHA, MORBI, GANDHIDHAM, MANDVI, JAMNAGAR, DWARKA. All more than 20 inches.
According to these estimates Ahmedabad will receive 4-5 inches, Rajkot 4-5 inches, Vadodara 4-5 inches, Junagadh 3-4 inches, Surendranagar 5-6 inches, Anand 5-6 inches, Bhuj 3-4 inches.
GIVEN BELOW IS THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL IN SOME CITIES OF GUJARAT BY THE GFS MODEL
6 inches in Ahmedabad likely by Saturday morning.
5-6 inches of rain in Rajkot on Saturday.
4 inches of rain in Bhuj by Monday.
10 inches in Morbi on Saturday.
10 inches in Jamnagar by Monday morning.
4 inches in Surat by Monday morning.
6 inches in Vadodara, Anand by Saturday morning.
10 inches in Junagadh by Monday morning.
6-8 inches in Amreli by Monday morning.
4 inches in Bhavnagar by Monday morning.
9 inches in Surendranagar by Monday morning.
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