European Model, ECMWF Paints Gloomy India Monsoon 2017 Picture


The rainfall prediction for India this year's monsoon is poor. That is if the prediction by the European weather forecast agency's ECMWF model is to be believed. 

On the whole rainfall will be normal till September end in most parts of India, barring Kutch, parts of Saurashtra, North Gujarat, entire Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jammu Kashmir, Bengal and the North Eastern states. Rainfall will be deficient in these areas. On the whole it will bring down the monsoons to 90-95% of average. That is if there are no depression/cyclones in October/November which bring prodigious amounts of water and push up the percentage and reduce the gloomy scenario.

The ECMWF says that there will be good rains on the Indian west coast barring Gujarat in July and August. But the rains will dry up in August, September in the whole country. I guess this will be because of the bad man El Niño kicking in then.

There is bad news for Pakistan and Bangladesh too. It will be below normal monsoon in these two countries.

This prediction is based on analysis of climate data available till March 1, 2017 by the premier forecast agency. It would be interesting to see if there are changes in subsequent long range forecasts.

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