The Bay of Bengal low pressure area has intensified into a depression and is expected to cross the Odisha coast tonight. That is the night of July 18-19. Where will it go? Which states of India will receive the most rainfall as the system moves through the country?
Let us see what leading global numerical weather prediction models have to say about it. All agree that it is going to rain heavily in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. After that there is some difference of opinion. Some say Gujarat will get the drenching. Some say southern Rajasthan. One of them says it will rain the heaviest in Sindh, Pakistan.
After analysing data from reliable models we arrive at the following conclusions.....
ANOTHER DELUGE OF 15-25 INCHES PARTS OF GUJARAT, SAURASHTRA BY JULY 24.
MOST PARTS OF GUJARAT TO RECEIVE ATLEAST 4-5 INCHES.
SOME PARTS OF MADHYA PRADESH, BHOPAL, INDORE IN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS IN NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
HEAVY RAINS IN MOST OF MADHYA PRADESH, SOUTHERN CHATTISGARH, SOUTHEAST RAJASTHAN. UDAIPUR AREA.
FLOODS LIKELY IN MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT IN COMING 5-6 DAYS.
Let us start the analysis.....The forecast maps show the expected accumulated rainfall in the period July 18-25, 2017.
The Australian forecast model gives a deluge in southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Besides, of course, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh before that.
The American GFS model gives most rains in central and western Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Almost identical to the Australian forecast.
The very reliable European model ECMWF gives entire Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch a deluge. 20-25 inches. Heavy rains in parts of Madhya Pradesh, southern Chattisgarh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra.
The German forecast model gives the most rainfall to Sindh, Pakistan. And also parts of Andhra, Telangana and Chattisgarh. Heavy rains also in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan. Gujarat gets little compared to the neighboring states.
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