UPDATE: 23 NOVEMBER, 2014 (0300 AM GMT)
The storm has already formed. It lay 600 Kms ESE of Diego Garcia at 0000 Hrs, today (GMT). It is going to intensify slowly as it moves towards Mauritius but turn into a 100 Kph cyclone when it nears the islands on November 29. Another interesting thing about the storm is that it is not going to dissipate quickly. It is going to hover around Mauritius and Reunion Islands for many days, until it is destroyed by the westerlies. It will linger on for about 5-6 days even after reaching Mauritius. Continuous rainfall is expected in the islands for 5-6 days beginning November 28, 2014.
Bansi will remain a depression till it nears Mauritius on November 28-29. It will intensify into a cyclone on November 29.
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| BANSI EFFECT: MAURITIUS AND REUNION WILL WITNESS 100 MM OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. |
CYCLONE BANSI UPDATE: 22 NOVEMBER, 2014 (1200 HRS GMT)
The storm is going to be stronger than expected. When it nears the Mauritius coast it will have wind speeds of 75-95 Kph on November 28, 2014. And contrary to earlier predictions the storm will hit Mauritius head-on on November 29. It is to be seen whether it will weaken or not when it hits the island.
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| XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI ON NOVEMBER 28 HEADING TO MAURITIUS |
UPDATE: NOVEMBER 22, 2014
NOAA calls it Invest 97 (SH972015). An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that weather forecasters think has potential of developing further.
Present forecasts say the low pressure area that may turn into Cyclone Bansi has already formed. It lay at latitude 7 degrees south, longitude 84.1 degrees east at 0000 hrs GMT, today about 1000 kms east of Diego Garcia. It's present wind speeds are about 30-40 Kph.
It will intensify slowly into a depression and move towards Mauritius, reaching it on November 29, 2014. The wind speeds then will be about 55-65 Kph. It will skim by Mauritius and move southwards. Rodrigues Island will be most affected.
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| Present position of the expected South Indian Ocean storm. November 22, 2014 |
UPDATE: NOVEMBER 21, 2014
Bansi will be weaker than expected. About 60-80 Kph. And all model forecasts now agree that Mauritius is safe. Bansi is not expected to affect either Mauritius or La Reunion Island. The storm will pass by these islands at a distance of a few hundred kilometers.
In two or three days the expected cyclone Bansi may be born as a low pressure area coming from Indonesia.
The storm may be coming earlier according to the latest forecasts. There is difference of opinion between the European and American model as to the intensity and track of the Cyclone Bansi.
The American model predicts the storm will be a stronger storm. It will reach speeds of 120 Kph on November 28, 2014. And it will move due south bypassing Mauritius and La Reunion Islands. It will dissipate on November 30 or December 1 after it will locks horns with the powerful westerlies. The storm is going to travel hundreds of kilometers in the Indian Ocean before it will die. Bansi will be a much larger storm than Adjali.
The European model, which I guess the Meteo France prediction will be based on, says the storm will hit Mauritius and La Reunion almost head-on on November 29, 2014. But by that time it will have weakened quite a lot. Winds of say 50-60 Kph. Even this model agrees that the low pressure that will transform into Cyclone Bansi will come from the waters of Indonesia. It predicts the storm will be born on Monday. November 24, 2014.
There is quite a difference in forecasts between different models in the track of the upcoming storm.. Let us see what the venerable JTWC says on Monday.
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