Generally November goes and we think the cyclone season is over in the North Indian Ocean. But no! A big cyclone may be brewing in the Arabian Sea if latest predictions are to be believed by weather computer models.
When we saw the forecast graphs the first time, we did not believe it. A cyclone in December in the Arabian Sea? Naaah! But the fact remains a cyclone may be coming in the coming week. Oman. Pakistan. Gujarat. Wake up!
The storm (Ashobaa) will be born as a low pressure off the Indian coast at Kerala on November 25. It will drift towards the Gulf of Aden in the following days and slowly intensify. By November 29 it will be a depression with 50 Kph winds.Around November 30 it will reach maturity. It will cross the 64 Kph threshold and become a cyclone. It will be located about 1200 Kms east of the Horn of Africa.
After that it will turn direction and curve towards Oman.It will move past Oman December 1-2. It will be strongest then with winds of 100-120 Kph. Present forecasts say it will strike Kachcch (Gujarat)- Sindh area on 3rd December, 2014.
Let us make some things clear. Firstly a cyclone in the Arabian Sea in late-November-early December is rare. We feel the formation of the storm is in doubt. We have written this forecast only after repeated model forecasts confirmed the storm. To be sure we have to wait a few days more.
In conclusion, a storm is going to form off the Kerala coast around November 27-28. No doubt about that. The question is will it move westwards towards the Gulf of Aden or swing north towards Oman and intensify into a big storm?
In conclusion, a storm is going to form off the Kerala coast around November 27-28. No doubt about that. The question is will it move westwards towards the Gulf of Aden or swing north towards Oman and intensify into a big storm?
No comments:
Post a Comment