The monsoon is pummelling eastern Uttar Pradesh hard right now. By the next 48 hours, around July 5-6 it's attention will shift to Bihar and particularly Jharkhand.
There is a real hazard of floods in Jharkhand as heavy rainfall is going to hit the state hard starting tomorrow. The onslaught will continue till July 7.
After which the heavy rain system will move to northern Chattisgarh onto Vidarbha by July 8.
Parts of Maharashtra are in for very heavy rains during the period July 8-10. Particularly the northern parts of the state.
The rain system will be knocking on the doors of south Gujarat by July 10-11. It remains to be seen if it then moves onto other parts of the state, Saurashtra, Kutch.
Interestingly, the GFS forecast model predicts very heavy rains in Gujarat, Sindh around July 13-14. It expects a low pressure area to develop over the state.
HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN EASTERN UTTAR PRADESH, BIHAR, JHARKHAND TILL JULY 6 EVENING.
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SAY (NEXT 15 DAYS)
The GFS says rain, rain, heavy rains in the period July 12-20. It expects a low to form over Gujarat on July 14 which will bring flooding rains to entire Gujarat, and Sindh in Pakistan around July 14-16.
It also predicts a low pressure system/depression to form over Bangladesh on July 15-16 which will move through Bengal, Jharkhand and reach Madhya Pradesh on July 20. More heavy rains from the system. It remains to be seen where the system goes from Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan? Gujarat/Sindh? Or northern Maharashtra/Mumbai?
The European model ECMWF predicts heavy monsoon rains in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal till July 12. Meanwhile a low may form on July 12 over Bengal/Bangladesh. It will move through Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh onto northern Madhya Pradesh by July 14.
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