Taiwan's Agony: NESAT Yesterday, Tropical Storm HAITANG Today

JULY 30, 2017, SUNDAY

Storms seem to be acting like wolves nowadays. They hunt in packs. Take poor Taiwan for instance. Yesterday it was hammered by category 1 typhoon NESAT which after slicing horizontally through the country is now in Fujian province of mainland China. Today another tropical storm HAITANG has crept on Taiwan from the south and about to hit the southern coast.

HAITANG is a smaller storm, with sustained winds of 75 km/h, but gusting upto 120 km/h. Moreover it has a big rain throwing capacity. Taiwan already sustained a deluge yesterday. It cannot tolerate another deluge this man HAITANG is going to bring about.

This storm will traverse almost vertically through the country, exiting from northwest part of Taiwan after 9 long hours at about 3:00 PM UTC. It will cross the Taiwan strait and hit mainland China.

Worrying for Taiwan is that the heavy downpours will continue even HAITANG moves past. Our estimate is an astounding 400 mm of precipitation will occur in the next 24 hours in the southern half of Taiwan. Also this tropical storm will bring about wind gusts upto 140 km/h over the landmass of Taiwan. Especially the eastern half of the island country, thus increasing the possibility of devastation by wind too, besides the flooding rains.

HAITANG WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS UPTO 130 KM/H IN TAIWAN 

HEAVY RAINS, UPTO 400 MM, IS EXPECTED ON SOUTHERN TAIWAN OWING TO TROPICAL STORM HAITANG 

Gujarat Stares At Floods As Big Rain System To Affect Friday To Sunday

JULY 13, 2017, THURSDAY 

This is a weather system that authorities the world over fear and hate. The powerful well marked low pressure area with its phenomenal amounts of rainfall it brings with it.

One such system is presently hovering over western Madhya Pradesh. And it is preparing to assault Gujarat from midnight or early hours of Friday, July 14.

It will enter from Dahod-Godhra region of central Gujarat. By Friday morning, Vadodara and Anand will be hit by a deluge lasting for hours. By noon Ahmedabad, by night Surendranagar. Rajkot, Morbi will wake up on Saturday morning to see the monster is on it. By Saturday evening, it will be knocking on the doors of Kutch districts.

Some forecast models predict that the low pressure system will mover over Kutch very slowly. For 24 hours. Till Sunday late night. Hence heaviest of the rains will fall in that district. Bhuj, Gandhidham, Mandvi, Naliya, Nakhatrana. All can expect more than 10 inches of rain till July 17 morning.

Our estimate is the areas that will receive the heaviest rainfall are, Central Gujarat ( Vadodara, Anand), North Gujarat (All districts, Ahmedabad included). Rajkot, Surendranagar, Morbi districts of Saurashtra and of course Kutch district.

The European model includes Jamnagar, Junagadh, Porbandar, Dwarka, Somnath districts in the heavy rainfall list.

All these areas will receive at least 10 inches of rainfall till Monday, July 17, 2017.

Estimates by different forecast models differ radically for rainfall expected in major cities of Gujarat in the period July 14-16.

RAJKOT: 4-19 inches

AHMEDABAD: 2-12 inches.

VADODARA: 4-18 inches.

BHUJ: 3-12 inches.

JUNAGADH: 3-12 inches.

Monsoon Hitting E Uttar Pradesh: Next Target Jharkhand, Bihar

JULY 4, 2017, TUESDAY 

The monsoon is pummelling eastern Uttar Pradesh hard right now. By the next 48 hours, around July 5-6 it's attention will shift to Bihar and particularly Jharkhand.

There is a real hazard of floods in Jharkhand as heavy rainfall is going to hit the state hard starting tomorrow. The onslaught will continue till July 7. 

After which the heavy rain system will move to northern Chattisgarh onto Vidarbha by July 8. 

Parts of Maharashtra are in for very heavy rains during the period July 8-10. Particularly the northern parts of the state.

The rain system will be knocking on the doors of south Gujarat by July 10-11. It remains to be seen if it then moves onto other parts of the state, Saurashtra, Kutch.

Interestingly, the GFS forecast model predicts very heavy rains in Gujarat, Sindh around July 13-14. It expects a low pressure area to develop over the state.

HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN EASTERN UTTAR PRADESH, BIHAR, JHARKHAND TILL JULY 6 EVENING.

WHAT FORECAST MODELS SAY (NEXT 15 DAYS)

The GFS says rain, rain, heavy rains in the period July 12-20. It expects a low to form over Gujarat on July 14 which will bring flooding rains to entire Gujarat, and Sindh in Pakistan around July 14-16. 

It also predicts a low pressure system/depression to form over Bangladesh on July 15-16 which will move through Bengal, Jharkhand and reach Madhya Pradesh on July 20. More heavy rains from the system. It remains to be seen where the system goes from Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan? Gujarat/Sindh? Or northern Maharashtra/Mumbai?

The European model ECMWF predicts heavy monsoon rains in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal till July 12. Meanwhile a low may form on July 12 over Bengal/Bangladesh. It will move through Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh onto northern Madhya Pradesh by July 14.

American Agency Predicts Rains Will Move To MP, Gujarat By Mid July.

JULY 3, 2017, MONDAY

American weather and climate forecast agency NOAA says the monsoon will drench Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, north Bengal and Indian NE states in the coming 7 days. We had already discussed this in our article on July 1, 2017.

The agency further says that in week 2, that is in the period July 7-16, 2017, the rains will become active over Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat again. It predicts heavy rains in many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Kutch, Saurashtra in Gujarat and in Konkan and Mumbai by mid July. SEE FORECAST MAPS BELOW......