JULY 6, 2017, THURSDAY
If forecast models are to be believed, the Indian state of Gujarat is in for flooding rainfall beginning mid July as two low pressure systems may hit it one after another by July 22.
The first system will be born in Bihar/Jharkhand on July 9 as an upper air cyclonic circulation. It will move onto eastern Uttar Pradesh, then northern Madhya Pradesh by July 12. It will have intensified into a big rainmaker by then. By July 14-15 it will be hovering over southeastern Rajasthan.
But it's southern quadrant will bring the maximum rainfall. This will arrive in Gujarat/Saurashtra/Kutch by July 15. So expect heavy to very heavy rains in the state beginning July 14. Before that parts of northwestern Madhya Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan will receive a deluge on July 12-14.
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Not only Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Sindh, the GFS model predicts the monsoon is going to enter a very active stage from July 12 and which will continue till the end of July. Many low pressure systems are likely with heavy rains in entire peninsular India. Especially Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra.
The system may move onto Sindh, Pakistan by July 15-16, bringing possibly very heavy rains in the province, including the capital Karachi.
THE SECOND SYSTEM will form over Bangladesh on July 15-16 and move quickly through West Bengal, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and hit Gujarat on July 20. This one will be even bigger than the first.
It may intensify into a depression by the time it reaches Gujarat. And that system too may flood southern Sindh and Karachi by July 21.
So strong is this depression going to be that it will enter Arabian Sea on July 21 and intensify further into a deep depression, may be even a cyclone. It may hit Balochistan or northern Oman after that but that remains to be seen.
The GFS envisages the low pressure system reaching Oman by July 22 bringing 2-4 inches of rain in the country, especially the northern parts (Muscat included).
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