UPDATE, JULY 27, THURSDAY, 9:30 AM IST
Frankly, the present cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan has everybody confused. When it first arrived over Rajasthan and under its influence the deluge over Gujarat, Rajasthan began, none had expected it would sustain for so many days.
The present situation has left weathermen scratching their heads. It was expected that the system would weaken and move over to Kutch. It has not. Today morning it still hovers over central Rajasthan. With little sign of dissipating.
On top of that, the other depression presently over eastern Uttar Pradesh, is expected to arrive at Rajasthan in the next 48 hours. What if system 1 does not dissipate by the time system 2 arrives?
The possibility is mind boggling. A clash. The result? Another deluge over north Gujarat. More likely over Rajasthan. Many parts of Rajasthan are in for very heavy rainfall in the next 3-4 days.
Rains in ease in Gujarat by Saturday, possibly Friday. Barring an occasional shower heavy downpours are unlikely in the state from tomorrow.
Parts of Rajasthan may receive heavy rains in the next 3 days.
After that monsoon will take a break for at least 15 days.
The present deluge in Ahmedabad is the dying gasps of the cyclonic circulation over north Gujarat.
It is spreading south into Surendranagar. Almost into Bhavnagar, Amreli. In the north the clouds stretch to Mahesana, Palanpur, Banaskantha. A big cluster of thunderstorms.
I have a feeling many places in Saurashtra, Rajkot included, is for heavy thunderstorms today afternoon.
It will bring rains to Kutch, parts of Saurashtra, north Gujarat for another 24 hours.
The system will dissipate tonight over Kutch.
But rains in north Gujarat will continue for another 2-3 days under the influence of the weakened cyclonic circulation which will arrive over Rajasthan. Mind you, this system is the second low pressure area, currently over Madhya Pradesh.
No significant rainfall is expected in Sindh or Karachi in the near future.
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