UPDATE, JULY 25, 1600 HOURS IST
The low pressure system has moved from south Rajasthan to central Rajasthan.
The European model expected this. It believes it will weaken and swing back to south Rajasthan by tomorrow then move though Kutch.
The GFS and the Indian Met. believes it will not. It will mean rapid clearing up of weather over Gujarat by Friday-Saturday (maybe even earlier) and no rainfall at all in Sindh. Just a shower in Kutch.
In short, the two are predicting diametrically opposite things.
Who will be right?
At stake are the reputations of the mighty ECMWF with the biggest weather supercomputers in the world on one side and the much vaunted weather analysis skills of the American NOAA on the other side.
What do you think?
The low pressure area over east Rajasthan will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it begins to move towards the Kutch-Sindh border areas. It is expected to dissipate by Friday evening.
What will be it's precipitation effects?
The next 36 hours will see heavy rains in the same areas of north Gujarat that have seen incessant rainfall in the previous 3 days. Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Ahmedabad, Aravalli districts.
The action will shift to Kutch by late Wednesday night. Kutch may see heavy downpours on Thursday. There will a slight respite for Kutch on Friday, but more showers likely on Saturday under the influence of the other low pressure area presently over Jharkhand right now. Yes. That system, weakened into a cyclonic circulation will reach east Rajasthan by Friday. It will bring more showers to Kutch on Saturday.
In Saurashtra, Morbi, Surendranagar districts may receive heavy falls by Friday morning. Rajkot, Jamnagar upto 3 inches of rainfall.
Weather over entire Gujarat will clear up only on Sunday.
Rajasthan will receive rains under the influence of the two systems in the coming 5-6 days. But it will not be as extreme as in Gujarat. Far from it.
Entire Sindh province in Pakistan will see some showers on July 29-30.
TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN GUJARAT FROM JULY 25-AUGUST 1, 2017
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