Latest forecasts indicate that expected tropical cyclone Pam is going to move slightly eastwards from its earlier predicted path. Instead of hitting Vanuatu directly it will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands. Though present forecasts rule out a direct impact on Fiji, it is going to move past it too close for comfort on March 13, 2015.
There are five more days to go and Pam might change its path again. If that happens it is going to be real bad news for Fiji. I am sure the alarm bells must be ringing loud on that island.
Because we are staring at a monster in the making.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015
93P is an innocuous little low pressure area in the South Pacific presently. But in a few days it is going to turn into a massive destructive possible category 5 Hurricane PAM which is going to devastate Vanuatu.
The system lies east of the Solomon Islands and just north of the Santa Cruz islands. Location 7.8 degrees South, 169.9 degrees East. Wind speed is 25 kph. By tomorrow it is going to intensify into Tropical Cyclone Pam as it slowly moves in a south-south-west direction and hit Vanuatu on March 11, 2015.
The bad news for Vanuatu is that even as it passes through the islands Pam will be intensifying all the while. And we are looking at a massive cyclone of an expected central minimum pressure of 933 Mb. Huge. Powerful. And destructive. Vanuatu is in for winds of 225 kph (may be more) gusting up to 250 kph.
Tropical cyclone Pam is going to take about 48 hours to cross the Vanuatu Islands. So a large scale destruction is not ruled out. Port-Vila is going to be badly hit.
The only possible good news is that the European Forecast Model presages the storm will not hit Vanuatu directly but pass by it very close. In contrast the reliable GFS model predicts a direct hit.
All the models say Pam is going to be a God-awful storm. One certainly hopes the authorities will take early note of the impending threat and take all possible precautions.
A word of advice to tourists who have travel plans for Vanuatu in the coming week. Cancel them earliest possible.
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| XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: MARCH 11, 2015. CYCLONE PAM ABOUT TO HIT VANUATU |
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