Typhoon NORU Will Affect Southern Japan For 48 Hours

AUGUST 5, 2017, SATURDAY 

The storm is intensifying. Typhoon NORU is feeding hungrily off the 30 degrees Celsius warm waters off the southern Japan coast. It is turning into a category 2 hurricane with winds, sustained, of 150 kmph, gusting upto 200 kmph.

It is roughly 125 kilometres south of Ibusuki, a little town on the southern tip of Kyushu island. NORU will take about 18 hours to travel that distance for landfall into mainland Japan, tomorrow morning at 9 AM local time (about 0100 UTC, Sunday).

The storm will slam head on into Ibusuki as a category 2 storm.

As said earlier, it is a slow moving storm at present. So Kyushu will bear for a long time the torrential rains and strong gusts as NORU takes its own sweet time walking by.

After slicing through the eastern coast of Kyushu, the storm will pass through western Shikoku, onto southwest Honshu before entering the Sea of Japan as a weakening tropical storm on Tuesday, August 8, 2017.

So a large swathe of southern Japan is in a thorough drenching, landslides, flooding, and wind-caused damage for almost 48 hours, Sunday morning to early Tuesday morning.

We have relied on the track forecast as laid down by the European model, ECMWF. The JTWC largely agrees. But the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting) model has serious difference of opinion with the JTWC and ECMWF. It believes NORU will nudge along the eastern coast of Japan before swinging back into the Pacific Ocean off Tokyo albeit greatly weakened.

SEE HWRF TRACK.....

https://twitter.com/weatherxwf/status/893371528187793408

Hurricane PATRICIA will reach Baffin Bay on November 2!

This lady monster has stamina! Hurricane Patricia is a category 5 tropical cyclone in north east Pacific Ocean and has given Mexico a fright of its life. It is going to hit Jalisco province of the country at around 0000 GMT, October 24, 2015. That is in less than 18 hours.

The hurricane will rapidly weaken into a tropical storm hours after impact and then into a tropical depression after that. But it is going to bring very heavy rains as it cuts across Mexico.

By October 25 it will have reached Houston, Texas. Patricia will go for a brief stroll in the Gulf of Mexico. On October 28 it will re-enter the United States and move through Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky.

In the next 48 hours after that Patricia will move through the states on the eastern coast (including New York) and through Quebec, Newfoundland in Canada into Labrador Sea.

By November 2 the system will have turned into a extra-tropical cyclone and entered Baffin Bay. 

So we see that Patricia is no ordinary hurricane. It is going to travel through 3 countries in the coming 10 days.

We have based our predictions on the forecast data from the ECMWF model. It had been proved right from the beginning during hurricane Joaquín. It had predicted it would not make landfall into eastern USA even as other models, including the NHC were predicting a hit on the eastern coast.

Latest satellite image of category 5 hurricane Patricia 

Hurricane JOAQUIN May Not Hit US: Latest Updates

Hurricane Joaquín  is giving authorities in many countries nightmares. It has already turned into a category 2 storm with winds in excess of 175 km/h and is likely to intensify even more.

It has already started battering central Bahamas as it inches closer. Friday will be the worst for that country as the fury of nature will stand atop the islands before moving into the Atlantic Ocean.

US authorities are already on high alert as most forecast models say the system will make landfall into the eastern seaboard just near New York on October 6, 2015. And another worrying aspect is that many weather experts say Joaquín could well turn into a category 5 howling monster.

The imagination boggles.

But one forecast model is going against the herd of computer models.

The European ECMWF in its latest data predicts the hurricane is not going to make landfall into the USA ( Or  Canada) but will move away harmlessly into the North Atlantic.

It will gives the creeps to the busy shipping lanes from Europe to North America but the USA will remain safe.

The ECMWF model has been uncannily accurate as compared to other forecast models, especially NOAA's GFS.

Time will tell.

Hurricane Joaquin satellite image . 0715 GMT, October 1, 2015

Typhoon GONI: Target South East Korea August 25, Tuesday Late Evening.

Typhoon Goni is a powerful typhoon now with winds of 220 km/h. It has passed the eastern coast of Taiwan and is now barreling through the East China Sea. Our prediction is it is going to hit south eastern part of South Korea tomorrow evening, Tuesday, August, 2015.

Latest satellite image of typhoon Goni taken at 0153 GMT, August 24, 2014

Other forecast agencies like the JTWC forecast that typhoon Goni will move right between Japan and South Korea. We think it is going to take a slightly westerly path through Korea.

The most affected provinces of South Korea will be South Jeolia, South Gyoengsong, and North Gyoengsong. The tropical cyclone will then move into the Sea of Japan and curve and enter North Korea in North Hamgyong province and then into China on August 26.

It will weaken considerably before landfall into North Korea and China but South Korea will face powerful winds in excess of 140 kmh.

Track Forecast for typhoon GONI by the JTWC. We believe it will move right through south-eastern part of South Korea on Tuesday night

 Tropical cyclone Goni is going to weaken in the next 24 hours. Presently it is a category 4 hurricane. By the time it makes landfall into South Korea it will weaken into a category 1 storm. By the time it enters North Korea and China it will be a tropical depression. Weaker winds but lots and lots of rainfall.

The province of Jilin will be most affected. The cyclone will still be a powerful one when it enters China with winds of 80 km/h. So North Korea and China are in for strong winds and heavy rainfall on late Wednesday.

Track the storm

LATEST INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE TYPHOON GONI AUGUST 24, 2015

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Typhoon Goni To Hit Kyushu, Japan, South Korea August 25, 2015

Goni is a kid brother of super typhoon Atsani which is barreling north into the Pacific Ocean giving Japan a fright. But tropical cyclone Goni is no midget. It is already a category 4 hurricane if we use American terminology with winds of 105 knots (190 km/h).

It is presently passing by Luzon in Philippines. Heavy rains are reported from northern Philippines with the coast being very windy as the periphery moves by.

On August 22, Goni will pass the eastern coast of Taiwan but at a distance of about 200 kilometers. Even then the effect will be considerable on the eastern parts of the country which will face torrential rains and winds in excess of 120 km/h.

Though typhoon Goni will intensify in the next two days as it passes Taiwan, it will not achieve super typhoon status. But it will then have a central minimum pressure of 913 millibars. A dangerous storm.

As it moves towards Japan after that it will start weakening. It will move through Kyushu, right through Nagasaki. Kyushu and Chukogu districts of Japan will be badly hit.

The weakening storm will then move through South Korea and then into northeast China on August 26, 2015. There will be very heavy rains in South Korea and Hebei, Liaoning provinces of China.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR TYPHOON GONI BY JTWC. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN JAPAN INTO SOUTH KOREA ON AUGUST 25-26 AFTER WEAKENING.

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SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI NOT TO HIT JAPAN

Super Typhoon Atsani is a monster now throwing winds of 135 knots (250 km/h). In a couple of days it is is going to intensify even more. It will move threateningly towards Japan but veer  away back into the Pacific Ocean on August 25, 2015, Tuesday.

TYPHOON ATSANI IN THE WEST PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE AUGUST 20, 2015, 0300 HRS GMT. GONI IS SEEN ON THE LEFT

The tropical cyclone is presently 925 kilometers from the Japanese island of Iwo Jima. Sustained winds speeds are 250 km/h. The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) believes typhoons Atsani is not going to get any stronger.

We beg to differ.

The storm is going to intensify further in the coming days and tun into a super super typhoon by Sunday having a central minimum pressure of 900 millibars. Our guess is the wind speeds then will reach an astounding 300 km/h, making it one of the most powerful storms on record.

It is not going to hit central Japan near Tokyo. It will move dangerously close but it will turn away abruptly on August 15, 2015, Tuesday.

But the Japanese Island of Iwo Jima is going to be affected badly. Not surprising when a 250 km/h+ typhoon moves by.

Atsani is going to wreck the Pacific Ocean shipping lanes as it is going to meander around  for a week still a powerful storm. A nightmare for the cargo ships in the north Pacific Ocean.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON ATSANI BY THE JTWC. WE DIFFER. WE THINK TYPHOON ATSANI IS GOING TO BECOME EVEN MORE POWERFUL. AND IT WILL PASS CLOSER TO CENTRAL JAPAN THAN THE JTWC ESTIMATE