Typhoon LIONROCK Japan Rendezvous OnWednesday

AUGUST 27, 2016, SATURDAY 

Latest forecasts hint that the presently category 3 typhoon LIONROCK in north west Pacific Ocean may make landfall into Japan on August 31, Wednesday instead of Tuesday as earlier expected. The target area is northern part of Honshu island, between Iwaki and Shiroishi. The storm may pass perilously close to Fukushima. Tokyo seems to be saved from a direct hit. The typhoon will make landfall about 150 kilometres north of the city. 

At 0000 hours GMT today the cyclone lay about 525 kilometres roughly east of Naha, Okinawa. Direction is north east. Current sustained wind speed is 180 km/h, gusts upto 210 km/h. It was moving at about 9.2 km/h.   It will slowly weaken as it curves towards Japan. 

The JTWC believes it will be a mere tropical storm at the time of impact with 100 km/h winds. It also foresees a landfall at a spot even further north into Honshu (near Morioka and Kitikami) than what we predict. Our estimate is LIONROCK will pack quite a punch at landfall with winds of about 150 km/h.    

Category 3 Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Tokyo, Central Japan August 30, 2016

AUGUST 25, 2016, THURSDAY 

Intensifying typhoon LIONROCK is hovering in north west Pacific Ocean presently just a few hundred kilometres from Okinawa. 

Unlike most west Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones this one did not emerge from lower latitudes in the sea east of Philippines but came from North Pacific.

Forecast models seem divided as to where the storm will go. 

In the next couple of days it will retract its steps and strengthen further. Our estimate is by Saturday-Sunday it will be a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 240 km/h.

It will then weaken a little and slam into central Japan near Tokyo on Tuesday, August 30, 2016 with winds in excess of 200 km/h.

Worrisome for people of Japan.

0000 hours GMT, August 25, 2016

POSITION: About 900 kilometres roughly east of Taipei 

WIND SPEED:  Sustained- 200 km/h, Gusts- 240 km/h

Typhoon Goni To Hit Kyushu, Japan, South Korea August 25, 2015

Goni is a kid brother of super typhoon Atsani which is barreling north into the Pacific Ocean giving Japan a fright. But tropical cyclone Goni is no midget. It is already a category 4 hurricane if we use American terminology with winds of 105 knots (190 km/h).

It is presently passing by Luzon in Philippines. Heavy rains are reported from northern Philippines with the coast being very windy as the periphery moves by.

On August 22, Goni will pass the eastern coast of Taiwan but at a distance of about 200 kilometers. Even then the effect will be considerable on the eastern parts of the country which will face torrential rains and winds in excess of 120 km/h.

Though typhoon Goni will intensify in the next two days as it passes Taiwan, it will not achieve super typhoon status. But it will then have a central minimum pressure of 913 millibars. A dangerous storm.

As it moves towards Japan after that it will start weakening. It will move through Kyushu, right through Nagasaki. Kyushu and Chukogu districts of Japan will be badly hit.

The weakening storm will then move through South Korea and then into northeast China on August 26, 2015. There will be very heavy rains in South Korea and Hebei, Liaoning provinces of China.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR TYPHOON GONI BY JTWC. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN JAPAN INTO SOUTH KOREA ON AUGUST 25-26 AFTER WEAKENING.

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Nuri Will Turn Into A Strong Extra Tropical Storm And Affect Aleutian Islands. Eastern US Will Feel "Nuri" Effect

Presently  a weakened Typhoon Nuri is barreling along the waters off Japan's coast. On Friday it will strengthen again in the Bering Sea and pass the waters off the US Aleutian Islands. A direct hit is not expected but western islands will be severely affected.

Post-Nuri will pass between Komandorskie Islands [Russia] and Attu Islands [US] on Friday, November 7, 2014,  as a powerful storm. The Komandorskie [Commander islands] are inhabited by only 600 people. The Attu-Kiska Islands are uninhabited.

The worry is that Nuri will approach the populated Pribilof Island on Sunday and start disintegrating there. This island will see very high waves and hurricane winds. Bristol Bay will see very rough weather.

Alaskan shores will witness a storm not seen in decades.

A weakened Nuri will gain energy from the Pacific drift and turn into a powerful storm again. The affects of these storm will be felt in eastern US. A cold wave with December-like temperatures is expected in New York in a few days.

VANCE WEAKENS

Meanwhile Tropical storm Vance has weakened into depression and will bring rainfall in Central Mexico around Mazatlan.

Typhoon VONGFONG Starts Hammering Small Japanese Islands

Image of Typhoon Vongfong taken at 0900 Hours UTC

The Japanese islands of Okinawa, Osumi and Amami are in for a rough time as Typhoon Vongfong barrels through them. The winds? 200-250 Kph. Okinawa will face the worst winds.

The typhoon will weaken when it makes landfall on mainland Japan at Miyazaki and Kagoshima. Winds of about 150 Kph. Hardly any consolation.

But the winds will further decrease as it moves through the other islands of Japan. Kyoto (October 13, 2014) will be let off with 90 Kph. By the time the storm passes Misawa (October 14, 2014) in northern Japan they will have dropped to 60-70 Kph.

Entire Japan will receive heavy rainfall between October 12-October 14.

Tropical Storm "Phanfone" Has Formed: Will Intensify And Move Towards Japan

This satellite picture taken at 0600 Hrs, Sept. 27, 2014 shows 'Kammuri' nearing Japan and the area where 'Phanfone'was born

As 'Kammuri' moves towards Japan, another typhoon has formed in the Pacific. Phanfone.

The JTWC confirms the birth of the storm.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 166.5E TO 8.6N 160.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Phanfone will intensify and move towards Japan in the coming days. present forecasts say that it will near Japan till the 5th of October, 2014, than weaken and move away from the coast.

"Phanfone"means "animal" in Laotian. Let us see how much of a beast it turns out to be.

Update September 28, 2014, 0230 PM GMT: Typhoon Phanfone will hit Taiwan on October 5, 2014 according to latest forecasts.

XWF FORECAST PATH: Expected path of Typhoon Phanfone from now to Ocober 6, 2014

FUTURE STORMS: Typhoon"KAMMURI" Will Hit Taiwan And East China In Early October, 2014

XWF FORECAST MAP: October 2, 2014. Typhoon Kammuri gains strength and moves west towards China

The Western Pacific is in ferment. It is churning out typhoons every couple of days. After Kalmaegi, tropical cyclone Fung-wong has already formed (It is a low pressure area now) and will hit Japan on September 21, 2014.

After that Tropical Cyclone KAMMURI will form north east of Philippines as a humble low pressure area on September 27, 2014. It will not go to either Philippines or Japan but will gain momentum, move west pass pelt melt over Taiwan and then slam into the Chinese coast north of Hongkong.

South China Sea To Spawn Tropical Storm "Mitag"/"Ester" On June 13, 2014

EAST ASIA

Path of expected tropical storm Ester (or Mitag) from June 13, 2014 to June 18,2014

The season of tropical storms is upon us. The North Indian Ocean has so far disappointed us. In the Americas, only a piddly little Amanda was formed in the Eastern Pacific near Mexico.

The much vaunted west Pacific typhoon season is perhaps about to begin. SE Asia is infamous for its tropical storms. Last year if I have the facts right,  the Pacific Ocean had been hurtling storms by the handfuls, one after another.

This year the account will open with the South China Sea. A low pressure area is likely to develop here off the Manila coast. On June 13, 2014. This system will slowly move northward turning into a depression. Taiwan is likely to get lots of rainfall on June 14, 2014. The depression will then intensify into a typhoon and turn in a NE direction. It will pass by Japan from below on the 16th of June and then move on to dissipate into the Pacific.

But the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Ryukyu are likely to bear the brunt of Tropical Storm Mitag on June 16, 2014.

June 16, 2014. Heavy rains in the Japanese island of Okinawa.

Tropical Storm Adrian To Travel Only On Sea. Will Not Enter Mexico

The season's first tropical storm Adrian has already formed. It presently stands 350 miles south of Acapulco, Meico. It is going to grow stronger and move north-westerly along the Mexican coast but keeping its distance from land. It is likely to grow to 50+ knots strength by Thursday evening (UTC Time).It will gradually weaken  when it will be south of Caliacan on Wednesday, June 15, 2011. It will soon dissipate. Naturally no warnings have been issued. Adrian like a good boy will play at sea only and will not enter Mexico.

ADRIAN VIDEO: JUNE 7, 2011

THE EXPECTED PATH OF ADRIAN

 This is where Adrian is right now. He is growing up.

 Adrian grows in strength.Thursday (June 9, 2011) early morning

 Friday (June 10, 2011) Adrian is a big guy now.

 Monday (June 13, 2011) morning. He starts dissipating

Tuesday (June 14, 2011) late night. The end.