Future Monster Hurricane MATTHEW May Go Anywhere

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016, THURSDAY 

Tropical storm Matthew slowly moving west in the Carribeans has forecast models pointing at different directions when the future track of this soon to be monster hurricane is concerned.

Yesterday we had hinted it could hit Miami, Florida on October 6-7, 2016. This prediction we had based on the ever reliable European model, ECMWF. Today the ECMWF is predicting a different path. It expects a direct hit on Haiti on October 5, 2016. This model further says that this storm is going to be even stronger than earlier expected. After passing Haiti, it will intensify into a category 4 monster reaching a central minimum pressure of 927 hPa. That means winds in excess of 120 knots. Possibly Bermuda is in for a royal thrashing.

But as we said earlier different forecast models are saying different things. The National Hurricane Center says Cuba is for a rendezvous with Matthew. But it remains silent on where the hurricane will go after that. Head for Florida? Or swing away into North Altlantic Ocean?

The present situation is that it could go anywhere, from states adjoining the Gulf of Mexico (seems unlikely) to a hit on Florida (less unlikely) or sailing away into the Atlantic after giving Haiti or Cuba a good hiding.

UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 30, 2016, FRIDAY

Though the official National Hurricane Center forecast predicts hurricane Matthew will move through Cuba and into the Altlantic, the threat to Florida remains. The reliable ECMWF model foresees a hit on the state. Supporting it is the NHC-LBAR model. Even the GDFL and GDFN models predict a path close to Florida.

This storm has many folks in the weather forecasting community on tenterhooks. The red line is the ECMWF prediction. The white line with red dots is the official NHC forecast.

Monster Typhoon MEGI (Helen) Born In West Pacific Ocean: Target Taiwan September 28, 2016

SEPTEMBER 21, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

 

Deep in the Pacific Ocean just north of the Micronesian island of Chuuk, an innocuous low pressure area has just turned into a depression. The Japanese Meteorological Agency JMA which monitors that part of the world has sat up and started keeping track.

 

For good reason. In a week's time, this tiny system in the mighty Pacific Ocean is going to metamorphose into a howling monster called MEGI, a category 2 or 3 typhoon that will slam into Taiwan head on. The diameter of this future storm will be larger than the length of the country.

 

Almost all forecast models predict the impact to occur around September 28, 2016, give or take a couple of days.

 

Our estimate is at its peak as MEGI will be hurtling towards Taiwan, it's central minimum pressure may sink to 960 hPa. It's 10 minute sustained winds will be 180-200 km/h.

 

One shudders to think what that will do to Taiwan, a country which has been battered by numerous storms in the last 15 days.

 

Contrary to earlier expectations, typhoon MEGI may spare Luzon, Philippines. But Guam will come in its way while it will be growing, intensifying and moving west. 

The track of this storm is not 100% certain. The European model thinks it will batter between Taiwan and Luzon and go onto hit China at Guangdong province. May be pleasure spot Macau and Hong Kong may receive a royal thrashing. Taiwan may escape the full wrath of this monster if that happens.

Unfortunately, it is possible that another typhoon CHABA (Igme in Philippines) will hit Taiwan on October 4, 2016, after MEGI (Helen). CHABA is likely to be as powerful as MEGI. Bad tidings for the country.

 

 

Typhoon MALAKAS To Drench Japan, Future MEGI Threatens Philippines On September 26

SEPTEMBER 19, 2016, MONDAY

 

The western Pacific Ocean is hurling storms by the fistful. Even as a weakening typhoon MALAKAS prepares to drench Japan as it slices though the eastern coast of the country, another typhoon MEGI is likely to hit Luzon, Philippines in a week, around September 26, 2016.

 

MALAKAS will hit Kyushu island east of Kagoshima city at about 1300 hours GMT, today with sustained winds of 150 km/h. It's wind intensity will decrease rapidly as it moves through the eastern coast of Japan. By the time it passes by Tokyo after 48 hours on September 21, 2016, it will be a mere tropical depression. But the typhoon will bring heavy rains in the country. Kyushu island is expected to receive 12 inches of rainfall in the next 24 hours.

 

Meanwhile another west Pacific Ocean typhoon MEGI may hit Luzon, Philippines on September 26, 2016. This typhoon may further intensify as it enters the South China Sea and hit the Chinese coast at Macau/Hong Kong on September 28, 2016.

At this stage it is difficult to be sure as to the expected track of typhoon MEGI. Other forecast models are saying it may just skim northern Luzon and hit Taiwan on September 29, 2016.

 

 

 

Mumbai, Konkan Faces Deluge On September 24, 2016

SEPTEMBER 15, 2016, THURSDAY 

Coastal Maharashtra and the city of Mumbai are in for extremely heavy rains around September 24, 2016. Some forecast models suggest about 25 inches of rain in these places by the end of the month. 

The rest of Maharashtra, south Gujarat, some districts of Saurashtra and north, central Gujarat may also receive 2-5 inches of rain at that time.

This is going to happen because a Bay of Bengal cyclonic circulation will clamber over peninsular India, emerge near the Konkan coast in the Arabian Sea around September 24 and intensify into a well marked low pressure area.

Where will the low pressure system go after that? Hard to say now. Some forecast models say it will weaken and move into northern Maharashtra-western Madhya Pradesh. But this is not certain.

It might well decide to take a stroll in the Arabian Sea.

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"Latest GFS forecast says the Arabian Sea low pressure system will hit northern Oman on September 29, 2016 with heavy rains."

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Things are going to happen in the coming days in the Indian west coast. Mumbai. Prepare for floods. The GFS model says heavy showers in Konkan, Mumbai will start much before September 24. In the next few days. Heavy rains are expected in Maharashtra on September 17-18.

Very heavy rains are possible in Mumbai in next 72 hours. This will be just a precursor to the expected deluge on September 24.

Forecast models are predicting a sudden explosion of monsoon activity with two strong low pressure systems developing, one each in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal around September 24, 2016. That day seems to be D-Day. Deluge day.

Situation presently is fluid. So it is hard to say where the rain systems will go. One thing is certain. Some places in South/West Asia are in for a lot of rains in the coming days.

Arabian Sea Depression May Hit Oman With Rains On September 25, 2016

SEPTEMBER 10, 2016, SATURDAY 

Forecast models are hinting at the formation of an Arabian Sea low pressure area/depression in the coming days. The American GFS model expects it to form off the Mumbai-Konkan coast on September 19, 2016.

This system may intensify into a deep depression as it nudges the Saurashtra coast and head straight west towards northern Oman, reaching it on around September 24, 2016. 

The GFS only says it will be a depression. But there are still 10-15 days to go and a tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out. 

Other forecast models confirm a low pressure area on Maharashtra on September 19. But they do not attest to the GFS prediction of an Arabian Sea storm. We have to wait a few days for the confirmation. This system will come over from the Bay of Bengal. This is the same cyclonic circulation which is dancing around the eastern coast of India. This is expected to intensify into a low pressure area and move to Maharashtra on September 19-20 via Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Meanwhile a depression will move through Vietnam, Laos, northern Thailand and reach southern Myanmar on September 16. But it may fizzle out after that.

The reasons for the disappointing South Asia monsoon this year are 3-fold. 

>The Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD, is negative. 

>La Niña still continues with her nakhras and refuses to come. Conditions are ENSO neutral.

>The storm maker Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO, had gone for a walk in the Pacific Ocean, so central Pacific Ocean is throwing numerous hurricanes. Though chances are a weak MJO may arrive in the Indian Ocean soon. But this is not confirmed. (See MJO diagram below).

UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 11, 2016

The GFS in its later forecasts now rules out an Arabian Sea depression. But there is a good chance of very heavy precipitation in Konkan, Goa and Mumbai around September 25, 2016. We are talking of 10-20 inches of rain in 2-3 days.

Something is going to happen in the Arabian Sea in the coming days. When forecast models give highly erratic predictions for an area, it rings an alarm bell somewhere.

The different phases of MJO. When it is phase 2,3 the North Indian Ocean throws out tropical cyclones.

Two Rain Systems Imminent In India

SEPTEMBER  7, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

The monsoons may be at an ebb now but a strong revival is in the offing in the coming 10 days. Many parts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar may receive heavy rains.

This will be possible because of two low pressure areas. Both will travel a long time without weakening and cross a long distance. 

Let us discuss in detail.

The first is the low pressure/cyclonic circulation that is hovering over Bengal presently. In the coming days it will move along the coast in the Bay of Bengal. First Odisha then Andhra Pradesh. It will enter the state on September 15 and move through Telangana, Maharashtra and emerge in the Arabian Sea just off the Mumbai coast, south of Saurashtra on September 17. Where it will go after that remains to be seen. It may move into Gujarat. Or it may dissipate in the Arabian Sea. Or it may intensify into a depression or tropical cyclone.

Folks in Gujarat, Oman and Pakistan must track this system with interest. Forecast models say it will intensify after emerging in the Arabian Sea.

The second rain maker system will come from the South China Sea. It will be born west of the Philippines, intensify into a depression or tropical storm and hit central Vietnam on September 13, 2016. After that it will move through Cambodia, Myanmar, and emerge in the Bay of Bengal near the Bangladesh/Bengal coast and intensify on September 17, 2016.

What this system does after that is uncertain at this stage.

We are not saying a tropical cyclone is imminent in the North Indian Ocean but if forecast models are to be believed a major rain system is likely in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in the coming days.

Let us see.

UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 8, 2016, THURSDAY 

The picture remains hazy. Further latest data from forecast models confirms a strong low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on September 18. Also confirmed is the tropical storm/depression hitting central Vietnam on September 13. The CFS model predicts heavy showers in Konkan and Mumbai around September 24, 2016.

Indian Monsoon Shows Receding Trend

AUGUST 31, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

The monsoon in India this year has been unremarkable as compared to other years. Though it has rained every where in little or more amounts, there have been few powerful rain systems. There was only one this year. Last month a low pressure system hovered over Madhya Pradesh for a week bringing floods.

Otherwise generally unremarkable. The Indian Met Department has reduced its forecast from above average to average rainfall in 2016. Forecasts by global forecast models of a bountiful Indian monsoon has been proved wrong.

The culprit is La Niña. The absence of it. Expectations that the flooding La Niña would be born in July or August have been belied. September has come and ENSO conditions are still neutral. In short, no La Niña. The monsoon are preparing to withdraw from South Asia.

In the coming days monsoon rains in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana will begin to decrease. Unless of course either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal throw out a low pressure system or a depression. None are expected in the near future.

A low pressure area will affect Bangladesh, Bengal and Bihar on September 5-6 bringing good rains. Otherwise it remains sedate in South Asia.

Come October and chances of a tropical cyclone in either Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal increases.

Good Rains In Andhra, Delhi Today

AUGUST 28, 2016, SUNDAY

 

The circulation over Sindh has brought good rains to the province and western Kutch in Gujarat. This will now move to western Rajasthan and then swing into northern Pakistan in the coming 3-4 days. The cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal will bring heavy showers to coastal Andhra and Telangana in the coming 36 hours. This system will move north through Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar onto Uttar Pradesh in the coming days bringing increased precipitation in these regions.

Heavy showers in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana till Monday night.

 

Heavy showers in northern Rajasthan which will spread to Delhi, Haryana, Punjab by Monday morning.

 

Showers in Gujarat till today evening.

 

A heavy shower in Diu early Monday morning. 1-2 inches expected.

 

Raining in Chennai, Sindh, Bangladesh and northern Rajasthan 

 

Typhoon LIONROCK Japan Rendezvous OnWednesday

AUGUST 27, 2016, SATURDAY 

Latest forecasts hint that the presently category 3 typhoon LIONROCK in north west Pacific Ocean may make landfall into Japan on August 31, Wednesday instead of Tuesday as earlier expected. The target area is northern part of Honshu island, between Iwaki and Shiroishi. The storm may pass perilously close to Fukushima. Tokyo seems to be saved from a direct hit. The typhoon will make landfall about 150 kilometres north of the city. 

At 0000 hours GMT today the cyclone lay about 525 kilometres roughly east of Naha, Okinawa. Direction is north east. Current sustained wind speed is 180 km/h, gusts upto 210 km/h. It was moving at about 9.2 km/h.   It will slowly weaken as it curves towards Japan. 

The JTWC believes it will be a mere tropical storm at the time of impact with 100 km/h winds. It also foresees a landfall at a spot even further north into Honshu (near Morioka and Kitikami) than what we predict. Our estimate is LIONROCK will pack quite a punch at landfall with winds of about 150 km/h.    

Light Showers In Gujarat Till Sunday, Heavy Night Rains In Delhi

AUGUST 26, 2016, FRIDAY 

 

A low pressure area is forming off the Andhra Pradesh coast. We can expect heavy rains in the state in the coming days.

 

The cyclonic circulation over southern Rajasthan persists. But it has weakened as evidenced by low rainfall activity in Gujarat yesterday. But it will exert influence over the state till Sunday. Most parts will see dull drab weather with light rain.

Isolated heavy showers in central Gujarat around Khambhat, Kheda, Bharuch.

Intermittent showers in Kutch till Saturday night.

 

Light to medium rains in Kutch, Saurashtra in the next 48 hours. Bhavnagar, Surendranagar, Morbi, Amreli districts.

 

There might be a couple of heavy showers in Rajkot today late night.

 

Good showers in Kutch till early Saturday morning. Showers in Dwarka, Jamnagar districts Saturday morning.

 

Showers are expected in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh during the day till evening. Heavy rains may arise in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh, northern Rajasthan late in the night till Saturday morning.

WARNING FLASH........CERTAIN PARTS OF SAURASHTRA (RAJKOT, SURENDRANAGAR, AMRELI, JUNAGADH, BHAVNAGAR) MAY SEE VERY HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING TONIGHT, LASTING TILL SATURDAY EVENING

 

 

Category 3 Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Tokyo, Central Japan August 30, 2016

AUGUST 25, 2016, THURSDAY 

Intensifying typhoon LIONROCK is hovering in north west Pacific Ocean presently just a few hundred kilometres from Okinawa. 

Unlike most west Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones this one did not emerge from lower latitudes in the sea east of Philippines but came from North Pacific.

Forecast models seem divided as to where the storm will go. 

In the next couple of days it will retract its steps and strengthen further. Our estimate is by Saturday-Sunday it will be a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 240 km/h.

It will then weaken a little and slam into central Japan near Tokyo on Tuesday, August 30, 2016 with winds in excess of 200 km/h.

Worrisome for people of Japan.

0000 hours GMT, August 25, 2016

POSITION: About 900 kilometres roughly east of Taipei 

WIND SPEED:  Sustained- 200 km/h, Gusts- 240 km/h

Super Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Japan On August 29, 2016

AUGUST 23, 2016, TUESDAY

Tropical storm LIONROCK has already formed. At present it lies about 650 kilometres northeast of Naha, Okinawa in Northwest Pacific Ocean. It already has sustained winds of over 100 km/h. In the coming days it will move a little in the direction of Taiwan then abruptly backtrack.

By Friday it will intensified into a powerful storm. Forecast models indicate the by Sunday it will have a central minimum pressure of an astounding 915 hPa. According to research by American meteorologists with such low pressure in its eye, the tropical cyclone will be throwing winds of about 130-140 knots. That is a category 5 hurricane.

The worrisome aspect is reliable numerical forecast models say super typhoon LIONROCK may hit either southern or central Japan on August 29, 2016. If this does happen it may cause considerable destruction in the country.

The little blessing is the storm is expected to weaken before landfall into Japan.

Cyclonic Circulation To Hover Over Gujarat For A Week

UPDATE, AUGUST 24, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

We have already said it is difficult to pinpoint where it will rain as the system is very unpredictable. Forecast models are changing their predictions frequently.

It rained in Sindh where the rain possibility was low. A freaky unpredictable cyclonic circulation. One can expect anything in the next 72 hours.

But we can say more or less that it will rain heavily in some places in north and central Gujarat till Thursday morning. After that showers in Kutch perhaps in the day. Not much rain is expected in Saurashtra.

Moreover the system is weak and is likely to dissipate by Saturday.

AUGUST 24, 2016, WEDNESDAY UPDATE 

The cyclonic circulation over southern Rajasthan persists. It will move over Kutch and then Saurashtra on Friday. It will dissipate on Sunday-Monday.

Till then showers will continue in Gujarat. First north Gujarat. It will rain in and around Ahmedabad till Thursday. Then the rains will shift to Kutch and Saurashtra.

It is hard to pinpoint the exact areas where it will rain but Saurashtra can expect showers till Sunday. Especially Rajkot on Friday. Heavy rains in Jamnagar area Thursday morning.

FORECASTS FOR AUGUST 24-25-26

Bhuj: Light rain from 10 AM TO 4 PM today (Wednesday).

Surendranagar: Heavy rain Thursday night to Friday morning.

Rajkot: Heavy showers on Friday.

Ahmedabad: 1-2 inches in next 12 hours.

Amreli: Cloudy with occasional drizzle.

Karachi: Thunderstorm on Saturday.

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AUGUST 23, 2016, TUESDAY

Two cyclonic circulations in India presently which are rain givers. One is over Rajasthan. The other which was over eastern Uttar Pradesh is moving to southern Rajasthan. By tomorrow both will join together. And remaining system is going to move into Gujarat soon.

This circulation will not be very strong but enough to throw down inches of rain wherever it goes.

And latest reliable models say it is going to hover over the state till next Monday, August 29, 2016, before it dissolves completely. First north Gujarat, then over Kutch. Then nearly stagnant over Saurashtra. 

So one can expect quite of bit of rainfall in Gujarat in the coming 5-6 days. In all the regions. 

We shall give area forecasts as we get them but it seems the rains will start in north and central Gujarat by tomorrow. Ahmedabad, Vadodara. Then a good spell over Kutch on Thursday-Friday. Finally downpours in Saurashtra. Rajkot expects 4-5 inches on Saturday.

But giving exact figures in days in advance is prone to errors. We shall give forecast updates.

Heavy showers in southern Rajasthan (Abu, Udaipur) till today midnight. It is raining in the region now.

Heavy showers in Kutch tomorrow, Wednesday, morning (Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar), north Gujarat (Ahmedabad, Himmatnagar, Deesa, Patan, Mehasana). The showers in these areas will start from today late night.

Heavy showers in Saurashtra on Wednesday afternoon (Jamnagar, Rajkot).

Heavy showers in Kutch on Thursday, Friday.

Flooding rains in Radhanpur, Deesa, Mehsana, Patan in next 48 hours.

Both Rain Systems Will Dissipate On Sunday, DIAMMU To Reach Gujarat

UPDATE, SUNDAY, AUGUST 21: Latest forecasts say the low pressure system will move western India by Wednesday.

AUGUST 20, 2016, SATURDAY 

The two low pressure areas that were expected to maintain monsoon rains in India will collapse on Sunday. The one that is presently over northwest Madhya Pradesh will move to southeast Rajasthan tomorrow and fizzle out. Meanwhile the remains of tropical storm DIAMMU are presently moving past Myanmar. By tomorrow it will reach Bangladesh and die down quickly.

Heavy rains in northeastern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Rajasthan till Monday.

Heavy rains in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Myanmar, Bangladesh till Monday morning.

Very heavy rains in Bangladesh on Sunday.

Heavy rains in parts of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh on Monday.

 UPDATE: AUGUST 21, 2016, SUNDAY 

Things have changed. The remnant of tropical storm DIAMMU, a low pressure system, which is moving over Bangladesh now may reach southern Rajasthan, Kutch, northern  Gujarat on August 24-25. It will bring rains even to Sindh possibly on Friday.

Earlier forecast was the circulation would dissipate over Bihar-eastern Uttar Pradesh today.

The circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh fizzling out as predicted. DIAMMU remains moving into West Bengal. By Thursday it will reach southern Rajasthan, north Gujarat, Kutch.

August 17, 2016: Heavy Rain In Jharkhand As Low Moves In

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area is moving into West Bengal. It will move through Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh, northern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh, south eastern Rajasthan and before it dissipates it will bring showers to Gujarat on Sunday.

Meanwhile the South China Sea low is brewing into a tropical cyclone. It is going to move through Hainan in China, then northern Vietnam. Will be probably be named DIAMMU. It's remnants will reach Indian northeast, Bangladesh on August 20-21.

Heavy rain in parts of northern Madhya Pradesh-western Uttar Pradesh (Agra-Gwalior belt) in next 12 hours, till tonight.

Heavy rains in parts of northeastern Rajasthan (Kota, Sawai Madhopur) till Thursday evening.

Heavy rains in Gangetic West Bengal till today midnight.

Heavy rains in Jharkhand till Thursday afternoon.

Heavy rains in northern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh on Thursday night.

Heavy rains in western Madhya Pradesh and adjoining eastern Rajasthan on Friday.

Related: NOAA RAIN FORECAST AUGUST 17-18

VIDEO: It rained very heavily in Rewa, northeast Madhya Pradesh on August 16, 2016 as we had predicted earlier. (video created by Santosh Upadhyay)

The Canadian CMC forecast model predicts the growing tropical cyclone (DIAMMU) in South China Sea will reach  Gujarat, albeit as a weakened low pressure area.

August 16, 2016: Weather Forecast Update: Low Pressure System Moving Into Bengal

AUGUST 16, 2016, TUESDAY

A low pressure area (NOAA calls it 97B) has formed in the Bay of Bengal. By tomorrow it will inland into Odisha-west Bengal. The cyclonic circulation over Uttar Pradesh is dissipating.

The depression/low pressure system from the South China Sea will reach eastern India by August 21. This will bring more rains to West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh.

The GFS forecast model envisages a procession of lows moving into West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh one after another till August end. I think we are staring at floods in these states in the coming fortnight.

Very heavy rains in eastern Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining areas of Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh till Wednesday morning.

Rains in Uttar Pradesh in next 36 hours.

Heavy showers in Odisha (Sambalpur) till tomorrow morning.

Rains to increase in Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand as the low pressure system moves in from tomorrow.

On Thursday heavy rains to move to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh.

The rain radar shows the circulation over Uttar Pradesh petering out as the low pressure system moves into West Bengal from the Bay of Bengal.

August 15, 2016: Weather Forecast Update: Flooding Rains In Parts Of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh

AUGUST 15, 2016, MONDAY

The cyclonic circulation over northern Madhya Pradesh will peter out by tomorrow night but not before it floods areas of the state north of Jabalpur.

Another low pressure area is going to move in soon into West Bengal from the Bay of Bengal by tomorrow. This system will bring heavy rains to West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh in the coming 3-4 days.

Meanwhile, a South China Sea tropical cyclone will reach India after weakening into a low pressure area on August 21 after traversing Vietnam, China, Laos, and Myanmar. This system will have great stamina and may reach western Madhya Pradesh by August 24.

So we see it is going to be a very wet eastern India in the coming 7 days as it is hammered by 2 rain systems, one after another.

Flooding rainfall in area between Jabalpur and Kanpur till Wednesday evening. Parts of northern Madhya Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh to be worst affected.

Worst affected districts in Madhya Pradesh will be Khajuraho, Satna, Katni, Damoh.

RELATED: NOAA Forecast Maps

Heavy rains in Uttar Pradesh as the Bay of Bengal low pressure system moving into West Bengal.

August 14, 2016: Weather Forecast: Very Wet Uttar Pradesh, Eastern Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh Ahead

AUGUST 14, 2016, SUNDAY 

The low pressure area lies over eastern Uttar Pradesh. It will weaken and dissipate in the next 72 hours but it will give damaging precipitation to eastern Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh.

A Bay of Bengal low pressure area is likely to develop off the West Bengal coast by August 16. 

Also another low pressure system may reach eastern India on August 21 from the South China Sea. The low may form in the South China Sea soon. It may intensify into tropical storm hit northern Vietnam-southern China then weaken. But it may travel to India.

Moreover two tropical cyclones are heading for Japan. CHANTHU and CONSON. CONSON will affect part of Hokkaido island tomorrow with 75 km/h winds. CHANTHU will kiss by the eastern shores of the country near Tokyo with 100 km/h winds on August 18 and then reach Hokkaido on August 19, 2016.

Very heavy rains in eastern Madhya Pradesh (around Jabalpur region) till Monday morning.

Heavy rains in Bhopal, Narsinhpur, Hoshangabad, Raison, Katni, Panna districts of MP till Sunday night.

Very heavy rainfall in parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh (Kanpur, Banda, Chitrakoot, Fatehpur) and northeast Madhya Pradesh (Satna, Rewa) on Monday.

Heavy rains in Chattisgarh (Korba, Bhilai) on Monday-Tuesday.

FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO INCESSANT RAINFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH (Chhatarpur, Damoh, Panna, Satna districts).

The rain radar at 8:30 AM, Sunday, shows heavy rains in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Bangladesh. But the real concern is eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh which faces a deluge in the next 72 hours.

Cyclones CONSON and CHANTHU to affect Japan in a span of 4 days.

August 13, 2016: Weather Forecast Update: Deluge In Northwest Madhya Pradesh

AUGUST 13, 2016, SATURDAY

The upper air cyclonic circulation lies over northern Madhya Pradesh-eastern Uttar Pradesh. It will continue to bring flooding rains to Madhya Pradesh, especially the northeastern segment (Rewa-Sewa) and many parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh.

The system will hover around the region till August 16, 2016.

Monsoon activity will increase in all over India except the five southern states from August 16.

STORM POSSIBILITY TODAY: A low pressure area is developing in the Gulf of Tonkin off the coast of Vietnam. It may move into the South China Sea and intensify into a tropical cyclone in the coming days. Areas to be affected are northern Vietnam, China (Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Yunnan)

Very heavy continuous rains in northeastern Madhya Pradesh (Satna, Rewa, Singrauli, Shahdol, Sidhi), parts of northern Chattisgarh and southeast Uttar Pradesh) till Sunday morning.

Heavy showers in Jabalpur, Bhopal till Sunday morning.

Moderate to heavy widespread rains in Uttar Pradesh and northern Madhya Pradesh in next 48 hours.

Heavy rains in Allahabad on Monday.

Rain radar shows heavy rains in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

NOAA RAIN FORECAST

AUGUST 12, 2016: Weather Forecast Update: Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh Stare At Floods

AUGUST 12, 2016, FRIDAY

After Gujarat, Rajasthan and West Bengal the monsoon focus is on Chattisgarh. Then Madhya Pradesh faces incredibly a week of continuous rain till August 18. Meanwhile as the Rajasthan cyclonic circulation is in its death throes, rains over Delhi, Haryana will lessen, then stop.

The circulation that was formerly a low pressure area over West Bengal lies over Bihar-Jharkhand. This system will move to Chattisgarh and then hover over northeast Madhya Pradesh causing dangerous flooding precipitation in parts of the state for a week. Another low pressure area which will creep in from the Bay of Bengal on August 15-16 will add to the state's misery.

Forecast models are also hinting at the possibility of a cyclonic circulation forming over western Madhya Pradesh-southern Rajasthan on August 20-21, hence bringing another spell of rains to Rajasthan, Gujarat and possibly Sindh.

The GFS model begs to differ. It predicts a Bay of Bengal low pressure area forming on August 20-21 , moving through Andhra, Telangana onto Maharashtra, Gujarat on August 23. It expects another Bay of Bengal low hitting Gujarat on August 28-29. But one should be sceptical as GFS forecasts change rapidly at times.

Very heavy rains in northern Chattisgarh (Ambikapuram, Surajpur) northeastern Madhya Pradesh (Singrauli, Rewa) till Saturday morning.

Heavy rains in northeast Madhya Pradesh (Katni, Jabalpur) on Saturday. Rains will spread to other parts of the state (Omkareshwar, Itarsi) on Sunday.

HEAVY FLOODING RAINS IN EASTERN MADHYA PRADESH ( Jabalpur, Damoh, Katni belt) TILL AUGUST 19, 2016.

This rain radar image taken at 0630 hours IST shows the cyclonic circulation bringing heavy rains to Chattisgarh, northeastern Madhya Pradesh and parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh.

NOAA FORECAST MAPS