Deep in the Pacific Ocean just north of the Micronesian island of Chuuk, an innocuous low pressure area has just turned into a depression. The Japanese Meteorological Agency JMA which monitors that part of the world has sat up and started keeping track.
For good reason. In a week's time, this tiny system in the mighty Pacific Ocean is going to metamorphose into a howling monster called MEGI, a category 2 or 3 typhoon that will slam into Taiwan head on. The diameter of this future storm will be larger than the length of the country.
Almost all forecast models predict the impact to occur around September 28, 2016, give or take a couple of days.
Our estimate is at its peak as MEGI will be hurtling towards Taiwan, it's central minimum pressure may sink to 960 hPa. It's 10 minute sustained winds will be 180-200 km/h.
One shudders to think what that will do to Taiwan, a country which has been battered by numerous storms in the last 15 days.
Contrary to earlier expectations, typhoon MEGI may spare Luzon, Philippines. But Guam will come in its way while it will be growing, intensifying and moving west.
The track of this storm is not 100% certain. The European model thinks it will batter between Taiwan and Luzon and go onto hit China at Guangdong province. May be pleasure spot Macau and Hong Kong may receive a royal thrashing. Taiwan may escape the full wrath of this monster if that happens.
Unfortunately, it is possible that another typhoon CHABA (Igme in Philippines) will hit Taiwan on October 4, 2016, after MEGI (Helen). CHABA is likely to be as powerful as MEGI. Bad tidings for the country.
No comments:
Post a Comment