After Sarika (Karen), Luzon, Philippines May Be Affected by TropicalCyclone Haima (Lawin) Oct 20, 2016

OCTOBER 12, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Luzon, Philippines faces the prospect of being buffeted by two tropical storms in a span of a week. Future typhoon Sarika (Karen) will hit central part of the province on October 16. And the northern tip of the island may receive a thrashing by another typhoon, Haima ( Lawin) around October 20-21, 2016.

Invest 93W, that is future Karen, is already intensifying. It has turned into a tropical depression. It lies about 500 kilometres east of Samar. By Friday it will have turned into a tropical storm. When is crosses central Luzon on Sunday, thankfully, it will be throwing out winds of 70-80 km/h, with a central minimum pressure of 987mb.

Typhoon Sarika will rapidly intensify into powerful category 3/4 typhoon when it enters the South China Sea. Forecast models are predicting it may turn into a 944 hPa storm on October 18. Present forecasts indicate a hit on Zhenjiang, China on October 19, 2016.

Meanwhile another cyclone is brewing in West Pacific Ocean near Micronesia islands. It will intensify into typhoon Haima (to be called Lawin by PAGASA) as it moves west over the coming days. Present forecasts say this typhoon may graze the northern tip of Luzon on October 20-21 and the go on and affect Taiwan.

TYPHOON HAIMA, LAWIN MAY TURN INTO A BIG MONSTER STORM

Monster Typhoon MEGI (Helen) Born In West Pacific Ocean: Target Taiwan September 28, 2016

SEPTEMBER 21, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

 

Deep in the Pacific Ocean just north of the Micronesian island of Chuuk, an innocuous low pressure area has just turned into a depression. The Japanese Meteorological Agency JMA which monitors that part of the world has sat up and started keeping track.

 

For good reason. In a week's time, this tiny system in the mighty Pacific Ocean is going to metamorphose into a howling monster called MEGI, a category 2 or 3 typhoon that will slam into Taiwan head on. The diameter of this future storm will be larger than the length of the country.

 

Almost all forecast models predict the impact to occur around September 28, 2016, give or take a couple of days.

 

Our estimate is at its peak as MEGI will be hurtling towards Taiwan, it's central minimum pressure may sink to 960 hPa. It's 10 minute sustained winds will be 180-200 km/h.

 

One shudders to think what that will do to Taiwan, a country which has been battered by numerous storms in the last 15 days.

 

Contrary to earlier expectations, typhoon MEGI may spare Luzon, Philippines. But Guam will come in its way while it will be growing, intensifying and moving west. 

The track of this storm is not 100% certain. The European model thinks it will batter between Taiwan and Luzon and go onto hit China at Guangdong province. May be pleasure spot Macau and Hong Kong may receive a royal thrashing. Taiwan may escape the full wrath of this monster if that happens.

Unfortunately, it is possible that another typhoon CHABA (Igme in Philippines) will hit Taiwan on October 4, 2016, after MEGI (Helen). CHABA is likely to be as powerful as MEGI. Bad tidings for the country.

 

 

Super Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Japan On August 29, 2016

AUGUST 23, 2016, TUESDAY

Tropical storm LIONROCK has already formed. At present it lies about 650 kilometres northeast of Naha, Okinawa in Northwest Pacific Ocean. It already has sustained winds of over 100 km/h. In the coming days it will move a little in the direction of Taiwan then abruptly backtrack.

By Friday it will intensified into a powerful storm. Forecast models indicate the by Sunday it will have a central minimum pressure of an astounding 915 hPa. According to research by American meteorologists with such low pressure in its eye, the tropical cyclone will be throwing winds of about 130-140 knots. That is a category 5 hurricane.

The worrisome aspect is reliable numerical forecast models say super typhoon LIONROCK may hit either southern or central Japan on August 29, 2016. If this does happen it may cause considerable destruction in the country.

The little blessing is the storm is expected to weaken before landfall into Japan.

Another Typhoon Threatens China, Hong Kong-Macau On August 18, 2016

AUGUST 9, 2016

After the powerful NIDA, another typhoon (will be named CHANTHU) poses a threat to Guangdong province of China, in the same Hong Kong-Macau area on August 18, 2016.

Reliable forecast models have been warning of a tropical cyclone formation in the South China Sea since a couple of days. The expected system will be engendered either north or west of Luzon, Philippines on August 14, 2016. Within days it will intensify into powerful typhoon CHANTHU and affect Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan provinces of China. Perhaps even northern Vietnam if initial data from forecast models is to be believed.

Where will the storm go? How strong will it be? This will become clearer in a few days.

RELATED: Typhoons CHANTHU, DIAMMU Imminent?

Typhoon NEPARTAK 2016 Latest Updates

See global oceans latest satellite animated images

JULY 9, 2016: FINAL UPDATE

NEPARTAK WEAKENS FURTHER, ENTERS CHINA

The once mighty super typhoon has weakened into a tropical storm as it entered Fujian province of China. It will further weaken into a low pressure area in the coming days as it moves into Jiangxi and Anhui provinces. Lots of rainfall expected there in the next couple of days.

JULY 8, 2016

TYPHOON MAKES LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN

NEPARTAK weakened to a category 2 hurricane and made landfall into Taiwan at 5:50 AM local time with winds of 191 km/h, gusts upto 234 km/h.

It will hit the Chinese mainland tomorrow as a tropical cyclone. The satellite image of 0650 hours GMT, July 8 shows the eye of the storm has left Taiwan.

JULY 7, 2016

NEPARTAK WILL HIT TAIWAN TOMORROW 

The category 5 hurricane lay about 435 kilometres southeast of Taipei at 0900 hours GMT today. It is expected to hit Taiwan on July 8 as a category 4 storm. As it traverses the country it will rapidly weaken and then make landfall into Fujian province of China on July 9, 2016.

Below is the latest track forecast for NEPARTAK issued by JTWC at 0900 UTC, July 7.

JULY 6, 2016

NEPARTAK A SUPER TYPHOON NOW, TO HIT TAIWAN JULY 8

Contrary to earlier expectations NEPARTAK has intensified rapidly into a super typhoon with winds in excess of 140 knots, 260 km/h. Wind gusts upto an astounding 314 km/h. At 0300 hours GMT July 6 it lay 1135 kilometres southeast of Taipei.

It will weaken after hitting central Taiwan on July 8, 2016, but the country is in for big trouble. The super typhoon is going to rip through the island, then weaken rapidly and enter Fujian province of China on July 9. It will bring heavy rains in Shanghai and South Korea as a depression later on.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center though believes it will move into Zhenjiang province and Shanghai.

JULY 5, 2016

NEPARTAK is an unpredictable storm. Forecast models are changing their predictions as to where it will go. Latest possibility is that it will skim past the northern tip of Taiwan on July 7, move past Shanghai on July 9 and then curve and pass through South Korea on July 11, weaken and bring heavy precipitation to southern Japan on July 12.

Below is the latest track and intensify forecast. It will be touching sustained wind speeds of 115 knots, 200 km/h when it will pass by northern Taiwan on July 7-8.

Latest forecast is that NEPARTAK will reach peak strength on July 7 with 225 km/h winds. Will move through northern Taiwan on July 7-8, Chinese province of Zhejiang  on July 9.

JULY 4, 2016, TYPHOON NEPARTAK UPDATE 

Latest data suggests NEPARTAK will skip both Taiwan and China but hit Kyushu island of Japan on July 10........

Latest data from numerical forecast models suggest typhoon NEPARTAK is going to be stronger than earlier expected. The JTWC expects it to reach peak wind speeds of 110 knots, that is 195 km/h on July 7 as it barrels through the island of Ishikajnma before hitting northern Taiwan. The JTWC does not expect a direct hit on Taiwan but we think the storm will pass right through northern Taiwan in the early hours (GMT) of July 8.

Another change in our forecast is that NEPARTAK after weakening, drenching Shanghai on July 9 will not go to Korea but pass through the Chinese province of Jiangsu on July 10.

The storm lay 340 kilometres west-south-west of Guam at 0400 hours GMT on July 4, 2016. Sustained winds of 80 km/h, gusting upto 95 km/h.

The latest track forecast for NEPARTAK by JTWC. It does not envisage a direct hit on Taiwan or China. We disagree.

JULY 3, 2016

NEPARTAK is a tropical depression south of Guam presently but within next 12 hours it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone. It will not affect Guam or Philippines.

In the coming days it will move towards Taiwan and move past the northern tip of the country on July 7. Typhoon NEPARTAK is expected to hit the Chinese province of Zhenjiang at Wenzhou on July 8, 2016 with wind speeds of about 150 km/h.

The storm will move through Zhenjiang and emerge into the sea at Shanghai and weaken and enter South Korea as a depression on July 11.

The JTWC, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, predicts the typhoon will be at its strongest on July 7 with sustained winds of 180 km/h.

Typhoon NEPARTAK Imminent July 5 In West Pacific Ocean

JULY 1, 2016

The famed typhoon season in north west Pacific Ocean is about to begin. Typhoon NEPARTAK may be spawned just west of Guam on July 5, 2016.

It will kick off as a low pressure area and then intensify into a tropical cyclone as it moves first towards Taiwan. Philippines will not be affected by this storm.

As to its intensity it will not be a very powerful typhoon in the ranks of Nuri, Hagupit, Haiyan et al. It's central minimum pressure is expected to be 984 hPa. A category 1 hurricane.

As to it's track, forecast models differ. Some predict a direct hit on Taiwan July 7 and then kissing the Chinese coast to move into Korea by July 9.

Others predict it will skip Taiwan but hit southern Japan on July 9, 2016. Affecting Okinawa and Kyushu.

NOAA's GFS model believes NEPARTAK will be still born. That it will remain a tropical depression and not intensify into a tropical cyclone.

See GFS forecast maps for north west Pacific 
Forecast maps Philippines Area

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) October 2015 XWF Latest Updates, Track Forecast

TRACK TYPHOON KOPPU LIVE

Updates based on Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and global forecast models.

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Update: October 20, 2015

Tropical storm KOPPU is weakening all the time as it prepares to leave the shores of Philippines.

The JTWC is still bullish on the storm and believes it will only dissipate on October 25. We believe it will weaken to a mere depression by tomorrow. It will not have any significant impact on Taiwan.

Update: October 19, 2015

The bad news for Philippines is the tropical storm is going to move slowly and will leave the country's shores only after 48 hours if not more. That means still more rains in Luzon for another 2-3 days.

As to its future, KOPPU is not going to intensify again as it heads towards Taiwan. But it will bring heavy rains to the country on October 23 as it moves close past its eastern coast. Winds will be tropical storm strength- about 70-90 km/h.

Update: October 17, 2015

KOPPU is intensifying presently. Soon it will be a category 4 hurricane with winds of 120 knots, gusts up to 140 knots. That is winds of 225-270 km/h.

Thankfully for Philippines the intensity of the typhoon will decrease. Wind speeds expected at impact on Luzon will be 180-220 km/h. Hardly any consolation.

The most worrying aspect is that KOPPU will leave Luzon completely only on October 21. That means incessant rains for 5 days. Heavy flooding and landslides are expected.

The system will weaken to a tropical storm after making landfall. After Philippines, it will move past the eastern shores of Taiwan on October 23. Expect strong winds and heavy rainfall in that country around October 23.

After moving past Taiwan KOPPU will weaken into a depression on October 24 in the East China Sea.

There is some disagreement amongst forecast models as to KOPPU's future. An alternative scenario is that it skips past southern Taiwan and makes landfall into Fujian province of China on October 23.

Latest JTWC track forecast

Forecast map for track and intensity

Update: October 16, 2015

Latest data from reliable computer models indicates a hit on Luzon on late Sunday noon PHT. Expected wind speeds at impact will be 180-220 km/h. The cyclone will weaken after impact but the major worry is the torrential downpours on northern Philippines for 3 days. Koppu will linger over Luzon for 72 hours.

It is expected to make landfall into Guangdong province of China on October 24.

Taiwan will not be affected except for showers in southern part of the island on October 22-23.

Update: October 15, 2015

The JTWC predicts in its latest bulletin that the violent typhoon will hit Luzon on Saturday afternoon with winds of 180-220 km/h.

Update: October 15, 2015

It is now certain that typhoon KOPPU will slam into Luzon in northern Philippines on October 18, 2015.  Not just touch the northeastern part of Luzon as some forecasts were saying but move right through it. Manila will be directly hit.

The storm is going to rapidly intensify in the next 48 hours.

KOPPU will take 2 days to move past Luzon so flooding torrential rains accompanied by strong winds can be expected October 18-20.

Thankfully the cyclone will weaken before hitting Philippines.

After Philippines?

Where will KOPPU go after Luzon? Models differ. Some predict a weakened KOPPU will move close past Taiwan on October 22-23. Other models say it will make landfall into China at northern Guangdong or southern part of Fujian province on October 22.

Water vapor satellite image of tropical storm KOPPU at 0400 hours GMT October 15, 2015

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Update: October 14, 2015, 1630 GMT

Typhoon Koppu will turn into a violent typhoon when it hits Luzon on October 18. Torrential ràins and 230-270 km/h winds expected.

Update: October 14, 2015

Though present forecasts by JTWC says KOPPU will move through the northeast tip of Luzon we believe it will hit the area head on October 18 and move though it in the next 24 hours thereafter. We also predict Taiwan will be hit directly on October 22.

But it is not going to be a very strong typhoon. A category 1 or 2 (at most) cyclone according Saffir- Simpson scale. Winds of 120 km/h.

Latest satellite image of typhoons KOPPU and CHAMPI and their expected track (October 14 forecast)

Update: October 13, 2015 (0930 GMT)

The JTWC in its latest bulletin predicts typhoon KOPPU will hit Luzon, Philippines on October 18 with winds of 220-270 km/h.

Update: October 13, 2015

There are two typhoons imminent in the western Pacific Ocean. Future typhoon KOPPU is a tropical storm and will intensify into a typhoon in the next 48 hours or less. It recently passed Northern Marianas as a tropical depression. Position at 0000 hours today was 15.6 N, 143.1 E.

Future typhoon CHAMPI is in the Micronesia Islands presently. Position at 0000 hours today was 12 N, 162.2 E.

CHAMPI is expected to swing north in a couple of days harmlessly.

KOPPU is a cause of concern for the Philippines. Presently major forecast models differ as to its track. The intensity is not in doubt. It will be a category 3-4 ( may be 5) hurricane by October 18.

As to its track. One model predicts a direct hit on Luzon in northern Philippines on October 18. It will then hover around Luzon for 24-36 hours and move north, weaken and hit Taiwan on October 20, 2015.

 Another model says it will come dangerously close to Luzon on October 18-19 but will then swing north. Taiwan may be in peril.

Stay with us for continuous updates.

Recent satellite image showing future typhoons KOPPU and CHAMPI 

Track forecast for future typhoon KOPPU 

Present position of future typhoon Champi

2 Typhoons KOPPU and CHAMPI Likely in West Pacific

TRACK TYPHOON KOPPU LIVE

Read Latest updates on KOPPU 

Typhoon Champi

Typhoon Koppu

Forecast models are hinting at the formation of two tropical cyclones in the west Pacific Ocean in the next 15 days.

Typhoon KOPPU will form first. It is likely to be a massive cyclone. It will pass close by Guam and then swing north bypassing Japan.

Typhoon CHAMPI is likely to form around October 22, 2015 in the South China Sea and hit Vietnam.

These are possibilities now. We will update as things happen.

Pacific Typhoons Goni Atsani Threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea Japan

The two typhoons Goni and Atsani hovering in the West Pacific Ocean could threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan in the coming days this August 2015.

Track forecast for Pacific Ocean typhoon Goni and Atsani. Goni will move close by Luzon in Philippines and northern Taiwan. Future super typhoon Atsani poses a threat to central Japan on August 26, 2015.

Though latest forecasts by leading reliable computer models say now that none of these cyclones will hit any country directly but it is difficult to say so with any emphasis as tropical storms obey no computer models however thorough they may be.

A couple of days back we had said in our prediction that Typhoon Goni might hit China at Shanghai but the expected track has changed a little. The tropical cyclone is to move much closer to Luzon in Philippines than earlier expected on August 21, 2015.  It will kiss past the northeastern coast of Taiwan on August 23, 2015 and then weaken. It will then swing towards southern Japan and then change direction and enter South Korea as a  tropical storm on August 27.

Typhoon Goni will probably not metamorphose into a super typhoon (Unlike Atsani) but it will still be  a dangerous storm with a central minimum pressure of 914 Mb when it moves past Luzon. Winds of 200+ km/h. It is possible it may reach super typhoon status.

The authorities in Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will have to keep a very close watch on cyclone Goni.

Typhoon Atsani in contrast only threatens central Japan. And in a few days it will turn into a howling monster of a storm. A super typhoon with a minimum pressure of 905 Mb. A dangerous powerful cyclone.

Atsani will move through Iwo Jima and go very close to central  Japan threatening Tokyo on August 26, 2015. Our calculation presently is that it will not hit Japan but swing away north east in northern Pacific Ocean and turn into a mid-latitude cyclone threatening the Aleutian Islands.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

Typhoons Goni and Atsani in the West Pacific Ocean are going to intensify and turn into very powerful storms in the coming days and they threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. in the next 10 days. They are slow moving cyclones and hence lethal.

2 Future Pacific SUPER TYPHOONS Goni, Atsani Threaten China, Japan

The over-active West Pacific Ocean has given birth to typhoons Goni and Atsani which are destined to turn into  super typhoons soon and may threaten Taiwan, China and Japan in a few days this August 2015.

EXPECTED PATH/TRACK FORECAST OF NORTH WEST PACIFIC OCEAN TYPHOONS GONI, ATSANI AUGUST 2015

It is hard to say which of the storms IS going to turn into a bigger cyclone. Typhoon Goni? Typhoon Atsani? Present forecasts say both will become super typhoons soon. That means sustained wind speeds in excess of 130 knots (240+ km/h).

Goni is growing now as it moves over Guam now. It will move in a WNW direction in the coming days. It is not going to touch Philippines. It is safe.

But Taiwan may be in for a bad time in a week's time around August 22, 2015 as Goni, (Will be a howling giant by then) will come visiting. It is possible the storm may move just past the northern coast of Taiwan and go on and hit mainland China at Shanghai on August 24.

The typhoon will have a minimum central pressure of 915 Mb then. That spells bad news for Shanghai. A very big, mean, powerful destructive cyclone.

The other big bad guy in the Pacific, typhoon Atsani will swing north soon, giving Guam a miss and grow into a super typhoon in a couple of days.

Atsani is expected to have a central pressure of 896 Mb! You will recollect the Atlantic super cyclone Wilma had a similar minimum pressure.

As to its future route, it is going to pass Iwo Jima, that is for sure. But after that it may swing dangerously towards central Japan. Whether it hits the country or not at Tokyo is to be seen. Our guess is it will not, but swing away but dangerously close to Tokyo by August 24, 2015.

The two typhoons will have many Asian countries worried in the next few days.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

PRESENT (AUGUST 15, 2015) INFRA RED IMAGE OF THE WEST PACIFIC SHOW THE FLEDGELING TYPHOONS GONI AND ATSANI. IN A FEW DAYS THEY WILL BOTH TURN INTO SUPER TYPHOONS THREATENING CHINA AND JAPAN