After Sarika (Karen), Luzon, Philippines May Be Affected by TropicalCyclone Haima (Lawin) Oct 20, 2016

OCTOBER 12, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Luzon, Philippines faces the prospect of being buffeted by two tropical storms in a span of a week. Future typhoon Sarika (Karen) will hit central part of the province on October 16. And the northern tip of the island may receive a thrashing by another typhoon, Haima ( Lawin) around October 20-21, 2016.

Invest 93W, that is future Karen, is already intensifying. It has turned into a tropical depression. It lies about 500 kilometres east of Samar. By Friday it will have turned into a tropical storm. When is crosses central Luzon on Sunday, thankfully, it will be throwing out winds of 70-80 km/h, with a central minimum pressure of 987mb.

Typhoon Sarika will rapidly intensify into powerful category 3/4 typhoon when it enters the South China Sea. Forecast models are predicting it may turn into a 944 hPa storm on October 18. Present forecasts indicate a hit on Zhenjiang, China on October 19, 2016.

Meanwhile another cyclone is brewing in West Pacific Ocean near Micronesia islands. It will intensify into typhoon Haima (to be called Lawin by PAGASA) as it moves west over the coming days. Present forecasts say this typhoon may graze the northern tip of Luzon on October 20-21 and the go on and affect Taiwan.

TYPHOON HAIMA, LAWIN MAY TURN INTO A BIG MONSTER STORM

Typhoon Sarika (Karen) Brewing In West Pacific, Philippines, Hainan,Vietnam Under Threat

UPDATE, OCTOBER 13, 2016, THURSDAY 

Bad news for China and Philippines. Both are going to be hit by two powerful typhoons within a space of one week. Sarika (Karen) will be a small storm when it crosses Philippines (Manila, Luzon) on October 16. Winds of 70-80 km/h. But lots of flooding rains. It will become a category 3 typhoon when it hits Hainan in China on October 18. Sarika will end up in Vietnam on October 19.

The real worry is typhoon Haima (Lawin). Forecast models say it may move through northern Luzon on October 20, 2016 as a monster category 4 hurricane with winds of 230-240 km/h. It will weaken a little and hit China at Hong Kong on October 22.

OCTOBER 11, 2016, TUESDAY

First time this West Pacific season 2016, Philippines is under threat from a direct hit from a tropical cyclone on October 15. Future typhoon Sarika (called Karen by PAGASA) is already brewing a few hundred kilometres off the coast of Philippines.

The system named Invest 93W by NOAA is a mere low pressure area but within 48 hours it will start intensifying into a tropical storm. It will be probably be christened on October 13-14 as it starts moving in a northwesterly direction towards Luzon. It will cross Luzon on October 15, 2016 just north of Manila as a tropical cyclone with winds of 80 km/h.

The real intensification of this storm will occur once it enters the South China Sea on October 16. Opinions are divided as to its track. Some forecast models think it will hit mainland China at Guangdong province at Zhenjiang on October 18.

We think typhoon Sarika will pass Hainan island on October 18 as a category 3/4 typhoon with winds of 200+ km/h and then go onto hit Vietnam on October 19, 2016.

Hainan and Vietnam are in for trouble in the coming days.

Present position of 93W. At 0000 hours GMT, October 11 it was 500 kilometres east of Tacloban.