Tropical Storm MIRINAE To Hit Hainan, China, Northern Vietnam Soon

JULY 27, 2016, 0230 GMT 

MIRINAE has crossed Chinese island of Hainan and is in the sea at present. Wind speed is about 70-75 km/h. It will make landfall into Vietnam by 1800 hours GMT, today. The storm has weakened to a tropical depression but it is expected to intensify a little before it crosses the Vietnamese coast.

The track forecast map below is in JST (Japanese Standard Time), GMT +9.

JULY 26, 2016, 0630 GMT

This storm, tropical depression 05W, came up suddenly. It lies a few hundred kilometres southeast of Hainan island of China. It is intensifying and will turn into tropical storm  MIRINAE.

It is expected to hit Hainan island of China in the next 24 hours, that is on July 27. After moving past the Chinese island province, MIRINAE will further intensify and make landfall into the northern Vietnam-China border area on July 28, 2016. Hanoi will receive heavy rains with strong winds on Thursday.

All said and done, MIRINAE will be a little storm. Wind speeds of 60-70 km/h but a big rainmaker.

5W is intensifying at present. It should be christened in another 12 hours. By then it will be throwing out winds in excess of 65 km/h. The European model ECMWF expects it to reach a central minimum pressure of 981 hPa on July 28 before it hits Vietnam. Quite a powerful storm, if this forecast model is to be believed.

Disappointment For Gujarat, Sindh As Heavy Rains Stay Away

JULY 14, 2016

The unpredictability of monsoons was glaringly evident once again as all forecast models had predicted that the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh-eastern Rajasthan would move westerly or southwesterly and drench the rain starved Saurashtra, Kutch and Sindh.

But instead the system moved away into Rajasthan-Madhya Pradesh leaving Gujarat and Sindh mostly high and dry.

The focus of this rainy season now shifts to northern India. Good, at times, flooding precipitation is expected in Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, eastern and northern Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttarakhand till July 18.

Kutch still waits for rains

Image credit: Scroll.in

After that spell peters out a fresh system will drench Odisha and West Bengal on July 19-20, 2016. By July 22 a low pressure area may form off the Andhra Pradesh coast which will bring heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana till July 24.

Though the monsoon rains have been on the whole satisfactory, it is proving most climate model forecasts wrong. Most of these, especially the Canadian CANSIPS model and the American NMME model had predicted good rains in Gujarat and poor rains in eastern India in July. 

That is not happening. Gujarat has barely received 15% of the season's rainfall. And half of July is gone.

One expects August, September and even October (if forecast models are to be believed) will turn out better for rain starved Gujarat and Pakistan. And prove the climate forecast models right.

Meanwhile the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there will be a decrease  in monsoon activity in South Asia till the end of July.

Strangely a low pressure area has formed in the Southern Indian Ocean (called 90S by NOAA) which which will move towards Mauritius/Madagascar in the coming days. It may even intensify into a tropical storm. After a week another similar storm system is likely to develop. Very strange as storms/cyclones occur in the Southern Indian Ocean during December-March.

GFS forecast shows total accumulated rainfall (in inches) till July 30, 2016. There are to be good rains everywhere in India except in Saurashtra, Kutch, northern Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Tamil Nadu.

Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Sindh till July 13

JULY 10, 2016

The center of attraction presently is the rain system which is flooding Madhya Pradesh since the last few days. The engine of this rain system is a low pressure area which was born in eastern Uttar Pradesh and is presently hovering above north central Madhya Pradesh.

Though this upper air cyclonic circulation will dissipate in a couple of days, the accompanying rain system will drench northern Maharashtra, central, north Gujarat, parts of southwest Rajasthan, Kutch, Sindh in the coming days.

On Sunday, July 10, the drenching will occur in north Maharashtra. On July 11 the heavy showers will move into central and parts of north Gujarat. On July 12 the action will shift to some parts of southwest Rajasthan and Kutch. Coastal Sindh, including Karachi is in for significant rains on July 13, Wednesday.  

The GFS expects 10-20 inches of rainfall in central Gujarat, 2-5 inches in north Gujarat and Sindh in the coming 3 days.

Saurashtra will be left relatively rainless.

Strange and unpredictable is the monsoon this year with renowned numerical forecast models like the GFS and European ECMWF struggling to give accurate forecasts for even 24 hours.

Meanwhile there is bad news for folks in South Asia and Middle East. The much awaited rain giver La Niña has not yet been born. Though the dreaded El Niño died an unsung end in May 2016, conditions are ENSO neutral presently.  In other words though El Niño is no more, La Niña is yet to rise. The Climate Prediction Center, an US agency says there is a 60% chance of La Niña in July-August-September and 70 % possibility during August-September-October. 

The moment La Niña is born and grows up South Asia is in for torrential rains.

Incidentally I happened to glance at the CFS forecast for South Asia for the months of August and September. I was surprised to see wave after wave of rain systems emerging from the Arabian Sea and hitting western India. 

The CFS week-by-week prediction was disappointing. It expects rains in Gujarat till July 15. After that all of India is in for below average precipitation till August 7, except for Bihar, Bangladesh, parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

LATEST NMME FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Below is the rain forecast (above, below average) for South Asia by the NMME, The North American Multi-Model Ensemble model. It reiterates below average (orange) rainfall in parts of central and eastern India.

CFS FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Meanwhile the Climate Forecast System, CFS, paints a gloomier picture. It says only the southern states of India and Bangladesh will receive good monsoon rains in August. For the rest of India it is orange, orange. Below normal precipitation.

Low Pressure System To Drench Madhya Pradesh For Days

JULY 5, 2016

The Bay of Bengal low pressure system which traversed through West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand is presently beginning its tour of Madhya Pradesh. Flooding rainfall has already occurred over the state owing to its influence.

The heavy precipitation is likely to continue in the state over the coming 5-6 days as the rainmaker system goes around erratically over Madhya Pradesh. Earlier it was expected to travel to northern Maharashtra, Gujarat and then Sindh but it seems to have changed its mind if forecast models are to be believed.

So good rains are expected over northern Maharashtra in a couple of days but Gujarat will remain largely dry. Maybe some heavy showers in central Gujarat are possible on July 8 but Saurashtra, Kutch will remain rainless.

Another rain system will affect western Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan around July 12, 2016. Good rains are expected in Uttar Pradesh in mid July.

Most parts of Gujarat are in for a long dry spell. Heavy rainfall is possible in Sindh, including Karachi on July 13-14. Unless of course the unpredictable monsoon 2016 springs a surprise.

Typhoon NEPARTAK 2016 Latest Updates

See global oceans latest satellite animated images

JULY 9, 2016: FINAL UPDATE

NEPARTAK WEAKENS FURTHER, ENTERS CHINA

The once mighty super typhoon has weakened into a tropical storm as it entered Fujian province of China. It will further weaken into a low pressure area in the coming days as it moves into Jiangxi and Anhui provinces. Lots of rainfall expected there in the next couple of days.

JULY 8, 2016

TYPHOON MAKES LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN

NEPARTAK weakened to a category 2 hurricane and made landfall into Taiwan at 5:50 AM local time with winds of 191 km/h, gusts upto 234 km/h.

It will hit the Chinese mainland tomorrow as a tropical cyclone. The satellite image of 0650 hours GMT, July 8 shows the eye of the storm has left Taiwan.

JULY 7, 2016

NEPARTAK WILL HIT TAIWAN TOMORROW 

The category 5 hurricane lay about 435 kilometres southeast of Taipei at 0900 hours GMT today. It is expected to hit Taiwan on July 8 as a category 4 storm. As it traverses the country it will rapidly weaken and then make landfall into Fujian province of China on July 9, 2016.

Below is the latest track forecast for NEPARTAK issued by JTWC at 0900 UTC, July 7.

JULY 6, 2016

NEPARTAK A SUPER TYPHOON NOW, TO HIT TAIWAN JULY 8

Contrary to earlier expectations NEPARTAK has intensified rapidly into a super typhoon with winds in excess of 140 knots, 260 km/h. Wind gusts upto an astounding 314 km/h. At 0300 hours GMT July 6 it lay 1135 kilometres southeast of Taipei.

It will weaken after hitting central Taiwan on July 8, 2016, but the country is in for big trouble. The super typhoon is going to rip through the island, then weaken rapidly and enter Fujian province of China on July 9. It will bring heavy rains in Shanghai and South Korea as a depression later on.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center though believes it will move into Zhenjiang province and Shanghai.

JULY 5, 2016

NEPARTAK is an unpredictable storm. Forecast models are changing their predictions as to where it will go. Latest possibility is that it will skim past the northern tip of Taiwan on July 7, move past Shanghai on July 9 and then curve and pass through South Korea on July 11, weaken and bring heavy precipitation to southern Japan on July 12.

Below is the latest track and intensify forecast. It will be touching sustained wind speeds of 115 knots, 200 km/h when it will pass by northern Taiwan on July 7-8.

Latest forecast is that NEPARTAK will reach peak strength on July 7 with 225 km/h winds. Will move through northern Taiwan on July 7-8, Chinese province of Zhejiang  on July 9.

JULY 4, 2016, TYPHOON NEPARTAK UPDATE 

Latest data suggests NEPARTAK will skip both Taiwan and China but hit Kyushu island of Japan on July 10........

Latest data from numerical forecast models suggest typhoon NEPARTAK is going to be stronger than earlier expected. The JTWC expects it to reach peak wind speeds of 110 knots, that is 195 km/h on July 7 as it barrels through the island of Ishikajnma before hitting northern Taiwan. The JTWC does not expect a direct hit on Taiwan but we think the storm will pass right through northern Taiwan in the early hours (GMT) of July 8.

Another change in our forecast is that NEPARTAK after weakening, drenching Shanghai on July 9 will not go to Korea but pass through the Chinese province of Jiangsu on July 10.

The storm lay 340 kilometres west-south-west of Guam at 0400 hours GMT on July 4, 2016. Sustained winds of 80 km/h, gusting upto 95 km/h.

The latest track forecast for NEPARTAK by JTWC. It does not envisage a direct hit on Taiwan or China. We disagree.

JULY 3, 2016

NEPARTAK is a tropical depression south of Guam presently but within next 12 hours it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone. It will not affect Guam or Philippines.

In the coming days it will move towards Taiwan and move past the northern tip of the country on July 7. Typhoon NEPARTAK is expected to hit the Chinese province of Zhenjiang at Wenzhou on July 8, 2016 with wind speeds of about 150 km/h.

The storm will move through Zhenjiang and emerge into the sea at Shanghai and weaken and enter South Korea as a depression on July 11.

The JTWC, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, predicts the typhoon will be at its strongest on July 7 with sustained winds of 180 km/h.

Typhoon NEPARTAK Imminent July 5 In West Pacific Ocean

JULY 1, 2016

The famed typhoon season in north west Pacific Ocean is about to begin. Typhoon NEPARTAK may be spawned just west of Guam on July 5, 2016.

It will kick off as a low pressure area and then intensify into a tropical cyclone as it moves first towards Taiwan. Philippines will not be affected by this storm.

As to its intensity it will not be a very powerful typhoon in the ranks of Nuri, Hagupit, Haiyan et al. It's central minimum pressure is expected to be 984 hPa. A category 1 hurricane.

As to it's track, forecast models differ. Some predict a direct hit on Taiwan July 7 and then kissing the Chinese coast to move into Korea by July 9.

Others predict it will skip Taiwan but hit southern Japan on July 9, 2016. Affecting Okinawa and Kyushu.

NOAA's GFS model believes NEPARTAK will be still born. That it will remain a tropical depression and not intensify into a tropical cyclone.

See GFS forecast maps for north west Pacific 
Forecast maps Philippines Area

Monsoon Activity: Northern Then Western India On July 7

JUNE 30, 2016

The recent monsoon wave that affected western India turned out to be weak and short. There were a few showers in north Gujarat and Saurashtra. Kutch and Sindh were left mainly dry. The wave petered out too quickly.

GFS forecast maps for South Asia

Now we look forward to the next rain system that will affect western India. That will come on July 7, 2016, via Madhya Pradesh. Forecast models predict very heavy rains in entire Gujarat beginning July 7. It will drench the state for 3-4 days. Even Sindh will receive heavy rains around July 9. Ths system will be a deluge maker unlike the recently deceased weak system.

Meanwhile monsoon will become active in central and northern India with the onset of July. Very heavy rains are likely in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh around July 3-4, 2016.  I guess monsoons will reach Delhi with the current expected wave by July 5.

One worrying aspect of this monsoon is that it has been lukewarm. Even in areas where it has rained the amount has been little. Flooding rains have not occurred anywhere. Though El Niño is no more, La Niña is not ascending quickly enough. The CFS, Climate Forecast System, predicts very poor below average rainfall through out India in the second half of July. Hope my apprehensions are proved wrong.

JULY 1: 2016 UPDATE 

The system to watch now is the low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal presently off the Odisha coast. Now this low/upper air cyclonic circulation is going to meander around half India in the next 7 days bringing heavy rains wherever it goes.

It will go to West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and end up in Gujarat on July 7-8. A very twisted track for a rain system. Just like the twisted unpredictable monsoon 2016.

Make no mistake. This system may bring flooding rains to Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch and coastal Sindh around July 6-7-8.

Gujarat, Sindh To Receive First Heavy Rains From June 29-30

JUNE 27, 2016

Progress of monsoon into Gujarat has been sluggish. It has covered half the state and stopped. This is because a big rain system moved into the Arabian Sea instead of moving into the state. It gave good showers to coastal Saurashtra and moved into the north Arabian Sea and lies as a low pressure area dumping precious water into the sea. The system will hover around and dissipate in mid sea without benefitting Gujarat, Sindh or Oman.

............

The low pressure area over north Arabian Sea has intensified into a tropical cyclone 02A. But as we have predicted earlier it will subside in the sea itself in a couple of days. 

We are monitoring the storm and will update you on fresh developments.

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But rescue is at hand for parched Saurashtra Kutch Sindh. The Bay of Bengal will hurl another big rainmaker which will move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, western Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Kutch and finally reach coastal Sindh on June 30.

The Bay of Bengal is going to throw out another bigger rain system that will push monsoon into entire India. The system will end up over Rajasthan or Gujarat on July 5-6.

I guess this will because La Niña is on the rise. Drenching rains are on the cards in early July as monsoon will change gears.

Welcome July. Welcome La Niña.

La Niña to kick in from July, monsoon may shed lethargy

JUNE 22, 2016

After all the hullabaloo about a bumper 2016 monsoon, June has been a disappointment. Speaking mildly. Most Mumbaikars learnt that monsoon had arrived in the city from IMD news reports in the media. So low key has been the premiere this year.

The story is the same throughout India. No flooding incessant rains. No waterlogged metros. Nothing. It leaves a sinking feeling in the heart. 

But despair not........

All right. All right. We have said this a couple of times before. But so constipated has been the monsoon that the expected revival either fizzles out or does not occur at all.

Perhaps El Niño's ghost still lurks around.

But by end June things will look up. La Niña will arrive in style and unleash the rain gods from July 1, 2016. The Bay of Bengal will spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 30. Even the Arabian Sea will join the party with heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan by then. It remains to be seen if the rain system reaches Mumbai or goes off tangentially into the sea.

Our present prediction is from July 1, monsoon will start using its heavy artillery.

JUNE 23 UPDATE

Later data from forecast models support the rejuvenation of the monsoons by June end. In fact it might happen earlier. On June 27, the Arabian Sea will wake from its slumber and spawn a low pressure area in the northern part. It will not intensify into a depression or cyclone but it will giving a boost to rainfall/thunderstorm activity in the subcontinent.

Flooding rains from June 28 in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and perhaps even Mumbai.

Things are going to really rock by June end.