Monsoon Activity: Northern Then Western India On July 7

JUNE 30, 2016

The recent monsoon wave that affected western India turned out to be weak and short. There were a few showers in north Gujarat and Saurashtra. Kutch and Sindh were left mainly dry. The wave petered out too quickly.

GFS forecast maps for South Asia

Now we look forward to the next rain system that will affect western India. That will come on July 7, 2016, via Madhya Pradesh. Forecast models predict very heavy rains in entire Gujarat beginning July 7. It will drench the state for 3-4 days. Even Sindh will receive heavy rains around July 9. Ths system will be a deluge maker unlike the recently deceased weak system.

Meanwhile monsoon will become active in central and northern India with the onset of July. Very heavy rains are likely in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh around July 3-4, 2016.  I guess monsoons will reach Delhi with the current expected wave by July 5.

One worrying aspect of this monsoon is that it has been lukewarm. Even in areas where it has rained the amount has been little. Flooding rains have not occurred anywhere. Though El Niño is no more, La Niña is not ascending quickly enough. The CFS, Climate Forecast System, predicts very poor below average rainfall through out India in the second half of July. Hope my apprehensions are proved wrong.

JULY 1: 2016 UPDATE 

The system to watch now is the low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal presently off the Odisha coast. Now this low/upper air cyclonic circulation is going to meander around half India in the next 7 days bringing heavy rains wherever it goes.

It will go to West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and end up in Gujarat on July 7-8. A very twisted track for a rain system. Just like the twisted unpredictable monsoon 2016.

Make no mistake. This system may bring flooding rains to Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch and coastal Sindh around July 6-7-8.