Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Sindh till July 13

JULY 10, 2016

The center of attraction presently is the rain system which is flooding Madhya Pradesh since the last few days. The engine of this rain system is a low pressure area which was born in eastern Uttar Pradesh and is presently hovering above north central Madhya Pradesh.

Though this upper air cyclonic circulation will dissipate in a couple of days, the accompanying rain system will drench northern Maharashtra, central, north Gujarat, parts of southwest Rajasthan, Kutch, Sindh in the coming days.

On Sunday, July 10, the drenching will occur in north Maharashtra. On July 11 the heavy showers will move into central and parts of north Gujarat. On July 12 the action will shift to some parts of southwest Rajasthan and Kutch. Coastal Sindh, including Karachi is in for significant rains on July 13, Wednesday.  

The GFS expects 10-20 inches of rainfall in central Gujarat, 2-5 inches in north Gujarat and Sindh in the coming 3 days.

Saurashtra will be left relatively rainless.

Strange and unpredictable is the monsoon this year with renowned numerical forecast models like the GFS and European ECMWF struggling to give accurate forecasts for even 24 hours.

Meanwhile there is bad news for folks in South Asia and Middle East. The much awaited rain giver La Niña has not yet been born. Though the dreaded El Niño died an unsung end in May 2016, conditions are ENSO neutral presently.  In other words though El Niño is no more, La Niña is yet to rise. The Climate Prediction Center, an US agency says there is a 60% chance of La Niña in July-August-September and 70 % possibility during August-September-October. 

The moment La Niña is born and grows up South Asia is in for torrential rains.

Incidentally I happened to glance at the CFS forecast for South Asia for the months of August and September. I was surprised to see wave after wave of rain systems emerging from the Arabian Sea and hitting western India. 

The CFS week-by-week prediction was disappointing. It expects rains in Gujarat till July 15. After that all of India is in for below average precipitation till August 7, except for Bihar, Bangladesh, parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

LATEST NMME FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Below is the rain forecast (above, below average) for South Asia by the NMME, The North American Multi-Model Ensemble model. It reiterates below average (orange) rainfall in parts of central and eastern India.

CFS FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Meanwhile the Climate Forecast System, CFS, paints a gloomier picture. It says only the southern states of India and Bangladesh will receive good monsoon rains in August. For the rest of India it is orange, orange. Below normal precipitation.

Gujarat, Sindh To Receive First Heavy Rains From June 29-30

JUNE 27, 2016

Progress of monsoon into Gujarat has been sluggish. It has covered half the state and stopped. This is because a big rain system moved into the Arabian Sea instead of moving into the state. It gave good showers to coastal Saurashtra and moved into the north Arabian Sea and lies as a low pressure area dumping precious water into the sea. The system will hover around and dissipate in mid sea without benefitting Gujarat, Sindh or Oman.

............

The low pressure area over north Arabian Sea has intensified into a tropical cyclone 02A. But as we have predicted earlier it will subside in the sea itself in a couple of days. 

We are monitoring the storm and will update you on fresh developments.

..............

But rescue is at hand for parched Saurashtra Kutch Sindh. The Bay of Bengal will hurl another big rainmaker which will move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, western Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Kutch and finally reach coastal Sindh on June 30.

The Bay of Bengal is going to throw out another bigger rain system that will push monsoon into entire India. The system will end up over Rajasthan or Gujarat on July 5-6.

I guess this will because La Niña is on the rise. Drenching rains are on the cards in early July as monsoon will change gears.

Welcome July. Welcome La Niña.

A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

Last Update: End of Cyclone Nilofar at sea

The once powerful storm is no more. Nilofar died last night in the dark waters of the Arabian Sea. It is a depression now. It will disappear in a few hours.

The fears of the Sindh and Gujarat governments were unfounded after all. All Nilofar will offer is rough seas for 24 hours, a few showers in Sindh and some winds (a paltry 20-30 Kph off the coast of Sindh and Kachchh.

No heavy rains, no devastating winds. Nothing.

Nilofar may have died suddenly but two more storms are coming in the next 10 days. Cyclone Priya (Ashobaa?] may come calling to Tamil Nadu. Typhoon Nuri will head for Japanese shores.

Tropical Storm Vance is taking a stroll in the eastern Pacific before giving Mexico a visit.

Keep reading this site for the latest.

Cyclone NILOFAR: How Will It Affect India and Pakistan?

Latest Infra-Red Satellite Image of Cyclone Nilofar : 1200 HRS GMT, October 29, 2014

The lady is in the Arabian Sea throwing out winds howling at 200-230 Kph. Cyclone Nilofar is slowly inching towards land. The lands affected will be India and Pakistan.

---------------------

LATEST UPDATE: The cyclone will start weakening from tomorrow (Thursday)

----------------------

The winds will be worst at the Kachchh and Sindh coast. The IMD says they will be 80-100 Kph. That is much better than 200 Kph. Look what Hudhud did to Vizag.

The winds will start from Thursday afternoon and continue till Saturday. Worst will be on Friday. Karachi is in for a battering with 100 Kph winds. Dwarka and Kachchh districts will get off with 60-80 Kph winds. But northern Kachchh (Koteshwar) will get a 100 Kph hammering.

The ports of Okha, Jamnagar (Bedi and Sikka), Navlakhi, Kandla, Mundra, Kandla will feel winds of 50-70 Kph on Friday

 Nilofar is going to bring rains. The heaviest will be in Sindh (Karachi included). Kachchh will get off with slightly less rain. Vagaries of nature!

Heaviest rains are expected in Sindh (SE parts, Karachi included). Flooding may occur.

In India rains are expected in Kachchh, west and north Rajasthan (heaviest around Bikaner and Jaisalmer). Showers expected even in Jaipur, Haryana and Delhi on November 1-2, 2014.

Rain Forecast Map: Cyclone Nilofar: From now till November 2, 2014

Total rainfall from Cyclone Nilofar: Where and how much?

Cyclone Nilofar Update: Target Dwarka (Gujarat) Friday October 31, 2014

Forecast map: Nilofar about to hit Gujarat. Late night October 30, 2014.

Cyclone Nilofar seems to have changed its mind. Earlier forecasts said it would embrace Karachi.

But latest forecasts show that it is going to curve more than expected. That means it will make landfall at holy Dwarka on Friday, October 31, 2014.

It will than move through the Gulf of Kachchh and affect Mandvi, Mundra,  Kandla before weakening and moving into parts of northwest Gujarat.

Nilofar (At least present trends say) is not going to be as strong as the recent powerful Hudhud. So it it will dissipate even as a rain-bearing system after moving through Gujarat.

Presently Cyclone Nilofar is intensifying and moving towards Oman. But it will change direction and start in a northerly trajectory, thus avoiding landfall into Oman.

It will weaken slightly as it moves north till October 29.

But on Wednesday it will start curving towards Gujarat and strengthen again.

Mercifully by the time it hits the Gujarat coast it will weaken to winds of 100-120 Kph.

In the next 24 hours it will be at its peak with winds howling at a frightening 200+ Kph. The eye will be clearly visible then.

Most of the rains will fall in Kachchh-Saurashtra. Pakistan will get some showers (Karachi) on October 31.

Oman will see strong winds, dark clouds in the coastal areas. And some showers in the next two days.

But it will be Saurashtra-Kachchh which will bear the brunt of Nilofar's fury.

There are 3-4 days before Cyclone Nilofar touches land. Till then Oman, Sindh and Gujarat will be on tenterhooks.

Nilofar is an unpredictable wild lass capable of anything.

In the next 4 days we will keep a keen watch on this beautiful but dangerous creation of Mother Earth.

Latest JTWC forecast: Nilofar Cyclone will hit Kachch Gujarat Friday morning

The JTWC in its latest bulletin (October 27, 2014, 8:30 AM IST) says Nilofar cyclone will enter Gujarat near Narayan Sarovar (Western Kutch) on early Friday (October 31, 2014) morning, Indian Standard Time.

There is some disagreement between this and what the GFS says. GFS says Nilofar will curve less and hit Sindh in Pakistan.

We will continue giving you the latest updates.